An inconvenient poll -- Obama leads McCain 48-40 in PA

In our long essay about the future of left of center politics, Peter Leyden and I point out that Democrats have won states worth 248 electoral college votes in each of the last four presidential elections. This group includes important states like PA and MI. It is this analysis which has led us to argue that the true battleground of this election will be in the heavily Hispanic states of AZ, CO, FL, NM and NV (and a handful of other states like OH, IA, NH and perhaps NC, WI and VA).

One of the big arguments coming from both the McCain and Clinton camps has been that Obama cannot win those northern industrial states so critical to this Democratic map, and that they can. But is this true? Can McCain, in this environment in which the GOP is weaker today than it has been since at least 1982, and perhaps the 1960s, really think about winning a general election state they have not won since 1988? I have always believed that once a Democratic nomiee was picked, those 248 Electoral College votes would begin to settle in for the nominee and the game would move to the battleground described above, which in recent years was won by the GOP.

A new Survey USA poll of Pennsylvania indicates that as Obama begins his transition from candidate to nominee, that these traditional Democratic states may be reverting back to form. This new poll has Obama beating Senator McCain in PA by 8 points, 48-40, well outside the margin of error -- and this is before Senator Obama has been officially crowned the nominee. Another poll has the uber battleground of Ohio even. I've seen other recent polls that have Obama within a few points of McCain in Texas and Arizona (driven to some degree by the Hispanic community's aggressive abandonment of the GOP).

While it is early, and these polls will bounce around, looking at the national polls (most of which have Obama up by 4-7 points over McCain) and new state polls, there is growing evidence that Obama is successfully bringing the Democratic Party together, is winning over key Clinton constituencies and that his much discussed weakness with certain white voters is not carrying over to the general election battlefield in any meaningful way.

It also means that we will be seeing an unprecedented national campaign for the Hispanic vote, a battle which Senator McCain begins in a very weakened position and without a lot he can do to change a very anti-GOP dynamic that has taken hold in the Hispanic community.

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Comments

[mvy]

The real issue is that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 17 legislative chambers, and enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland - totaling 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

[tommyjonq]

republicans? weaker??? hillary would be nothing without them. obama with an eight-point lead? kerry started with a TWENTY THREE POINT lead against bush. only bob barr can save obama now. and then hillary can cripple his presidency the way kennedy did carter's.

http://politiqs.tommyjonq.com

[noneIn2008]

There are 13 swing states that determine if Obama can win: Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Tennessee, West Virginia. Pennsylvania is a Democratic President state. It will go Dem independent of the name on the ballot.

To win Obama needs to pick up Florida or Ohio and one other swing state. Or, a combination of two to three of Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, Kentucky or Tennessee.

[Philly4Obama]

We in Philly, to put it mildly, will kick McCain's ass back to the 50s. We swung the whole state for Kerry, and we will land slide it for Obama!

[berylrose]

I grew-up in Philadelphia. Go Philly!

We have a real winner in Obama!

[LeekosAgrios]

I hope that the author is smart enough to see that 40 + 48 = 88 with 12% not being counted. What makes him think they will all go to OBAMA?

On the other hand, Hillary's lead in the state is in the double digits with 3 - 4 percent as undecideds.

[SeriousBlack]

And I hope YOU'RE smart enough to see that 40 + 9 loses to 48 + 3, which means that your question "What makes him think they will ****ALL**** go to OBAMA?" is a little stupid, isn't it?

(Even though in reality he'll probably get substantially more than just 3 of that 12 percent anyway)

[berylrose]

Obama will win by a landslide. He has a plan and I know he can inpliment it successfully. Idealism?
Not much to build on? Wait and see old man.

[chefrasta]

It wont mean a thing as long as Sen. Clinton and her followers are taking this to the convention.The super-delegates needs to shut her down the hard working white people she so famously stands by need to call her out for the over $10 million that she owes and let the media know that Hillary Clinton is a deadbeat who refuses to pay her bills so how is she going to fix the economy?Maybe she just wont pay the bills and say see I fix it and if I say its fix dont worry we are now in Hillaryland

[BillZBubb]

Yeah, at this time in 2004, Kerry was leading Bush by about the same margin nationally. That really worked out, didn't it?

Obama is going to lose Ohio. Probably Florida as well. Without one of those, he loses the election.

[berylrose]

All you ever say is he can't win. He is beating Hillary who has had the entire democratic machine behind her. He will win all the big states, when the machine is behind him too. The party will come together.
The republicans will be ineffective this year. Not this time, not this year. People want to turn the page and write a new chapter.

Get on board. Have some hope.

[Insideout143]

So who says Hillary would definitely win Ohio or Florida?
I wouldn't vote for her.

[MGhamma]

The very fact that MCsame is argueing that Obama can't win in Nov.... well, you all can figure it out.

[vincealy]

If The Clintons decide that the Democratic party and the people are more important than personal achievement than the Dems are in for a very good year. If they are looking at 2012 they could mess things up for thr party. The issue is trust.

[duckfan00]

Great News!!! Many HRC supporters are just overly concerned that Obama cant beat McCain in states like Pa. or Ohio. They just cant stand the thought of a third Bush term with McCain as president.

[harriscrl3]

There you have it why he poured time and resources in PA but barely paid attentio to WV and KY he is running his campaign like a business putting his money and time where he gets returns.

Carol