Expect McCain to Gain Ground These Final Weeks

As we head into the home stretch, it is going to be important for those analyzing the election not to confuse McCain gaining a few points with him once again having the opportunity to win the election.

The Pollster.com national polling average this morning is 50 Obama, 43 McCain. Where will the movement be in these final three weeks? If the election ends up 4-6 points for Obama, this means we end up 52-48, 53-47, or something like that. My sense now is that McCain is likely to gain 4-5 points in this these final few weeks and return to a respectable level for a credible GOP candidate. Part of what may drive this movement in the next few weeks is McCain bouncing back up from his current below-the-floor position. I mean 43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there.

McCain's gains these coming weeks will be because he had been so dramatically underperforming since his successful convention. His erratic performance in the debates, his very public confusion during that first week of the financial crisis, the cratering of Sarah Palin, have all combined to leave him several points below where he should be at this point. In these next few weeks he will in all likelihood regain ground he should have been occupying all along but lost due to his disappointing campaign. So in many ways, McCain's likely uptick is more a sign of his current weakness than any newfound strength.

Getting back up to 46, 47, 48 is not the same as winning. My guess is there will be a lot of confusion about this in the chattering classes in the next few weeks.

Looking at the Kos am roundup, what we are seeing is a slight uptick in the McCain number with no decline in the Obama number. The real trend line to watch now is Obama's -- if he holds at 49,50,51 -- he will win. If he starts dropping below that, we may have a race on our hands.

I've always believed the main issue in the general election was whether Obama could give enough people enough comfort about him and his views to take the ground the American people were ready to give him. The debates, his strong performance during the financial crisis, a series of direct-to-camera ads have done a lot to give people more comfort about this new kid with a funny name whom we all have just gotten to know. My sense now is that the Obama campaign's positive TV tracks must stay relentlessly direct-to-camera, and they would be wise to replicate in some form the three direct-to-camera ads about our economic future and the struggle of everyday people run during the financial crisis (similar to the great two-minute close he made in Iowa) as the main way they close in the home stretch.

I have also always believed that Obama's final 2-3 points would come late, at the very end, as they often do for a challenger against a better known candidate. Which means we could see some kind of a McCain surge now with Obama closing it out in the final week or so -- if he performs well.

Or not....

It is hard to believe we are at the end of this historic campaign. But we are, and like all campaigns, the final 18 days is at least one political lifetime left to go.

Crossposted at the NDN Blog.

Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729

Comments

[AmazingChicken]

I recently read a piece in Rolling Stone about McGrumpy that bears reading by anyone with the time to do it. Yes, it's long. But oh boy is he not someone we want near the button.

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain

[carriellbee]

The Rig is In to Steal 2008

In this shattering new interview, Stephen Spoonamore goes into harrowing detail about the Bush regime's election fraud, past, present and--if we don't spread the word right now--to come. Since he's the only whistle-blower out there who knows the perps themselves, and how they operate, we have to send this new piece far and wide.

http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/spoonamore_revelations

[BryantG]

By my calculations we're overdue for another hail-mary pass from the McCain-Palin campaign.

[leevntheus]

The only ground Grandpa is going to gain is apparently THROUGH ALL THE FRAUDULENT VOTING MACHINE ERRORS THAT ARE BEING MANIPULATED IN REPUBLICAN RUN PRECINCTS!!!!!

CALL YOUR CONGRESSPERSON AND SCREAM!!!!!!

[natureman]

Yeah there ya go. Those dang fraud voting. Did you know after the last voting debacle, they found that more Republican votes were not counted than Democratic and it would not have changed the outcome of the election?

[windyYooper]

thats right....
nows the time...
right now.. today... after work..
get down to your local Obama for Change office and......

VOLUNTEER.­..VOLUNTEE­R...VOLUNT­EER

that's right, get U.P. off your BLOGGING BUTTS and

VOLUNTEER.­..VOLUNTEE­R...VOLUNT­EER

[HarryTheHat]

I'm not so sure about the "McCain can't stay at 43%" notion. McCain has had absolute ceiling of 43-44% throughout this election. The only break with this was in the immediate aftermath of the Palin convention speech and believe me, those days aren't coming back.

What it boils down to is that no more than about 43% of the American electorate can reconcile themselves with the idea of voting for McCain. Independents are consistently breaking for Obama and Powell's endorsement is like to solidify this trend.

I'd say nationally third party candidates will get about 5% of the vote, Obama about 52% and McCain stuck resolutely at 43%. That may fly in the face in much chattering class wisdom, but I can't see where any extra votes for McCain are going to come from. He's hit his own glass ceiling and I don't think he can break it. We'll see.

[LouisvilleLiberal]

Republicans have to tell the base there is hope so they turn out. If they get discouraged because it is impossible for McCain to win, they won't bother to show up at the polls at all. That's not good for the other Republicans on the ticket and not good for Republican moral to be beaten so badly. No one wants to join a party of losers.

Also, the media wants to keep the excitement going to keep ratings up. If they call it now, we won't stay tuned for the latest update. They are raking in the cash on this election.....and they want every last dollar.

[ILOVELOSANGELES]

The major story on all MSM should be the GOP effort to suppress voters rights. They have done it before and are doing it again.

[ILOVELOSANGELES]

I use internet server A#L. You know which one I'm referring to. For the past 2 months I have voted in their online straw vote for POTUS. What is troubling to me is that they always have McCain ahead by a large margin. Tonight they had McCain at 56% and Obama at 41% with more than 300 electoral votes for McCain. I hope this is a flawed or skewered survey.

[NetworkGuy]

A large part of the AOL subscriber base is rural dialup.

[coyotepots]

Here's what scares me most about Sen. McCain.... He wanders about, adjusting his viewpoint to the need of the moment. Very similar to W. So if he did get to be president, he's going to rely on a group of unseen advisors (like Cheney, Ashcroft, Rumsfield, et al) for information. Sen Obama seems to be the sort who sits down with a wide variety of opinions and tries to get at the best solution, and then makes his decision.

[NetworkGuy]

Well, it's got to at least look close beforehand. When the no-paper-trail voting machines crank out numbers that don't match exit polls, it won't seem nearly as crooked. If national polling percentages were too wide to skew, the tranquilized electorate might actually notice the machines behaving oddly in battleground states. I've seen this movie before. This remake, like most, isn't as compelling.

[bajanyvie]

Maybe they need to continue the myth that McCain is catching up in the polls and the race is tight, and add in all the possibilities of the "Bradley effect" so that when the Republicans "steal" the election it all seems plausible.

[blissiseasy123]

An Open Letter to John McCain:

For 26 years you ignored the Fundamentalist Latter Day Saints in Colorado City, Arizona while thousands of women and children were striped of their democratic rights.

You ignored the cries of my people who were victims of evildoers operating under the guise of religion. You ignored the cries of young girls forced into marriage, and you ignored the young boys who were forced out of town to fend for themselves on the streets of America.

Colorado City, Arizona is home to the worst human rights violations in America, but you did nothing to stop it. You wouldn't even return Senator Linda Binder's calls for help.

And now you ask Americans, "Who is the real Barack Obama?" when Americans should be asking, who is the real John McCain?

You are soaked in the blood and tears of my people who are beautiful and innocent.

Laurie Allen, Producer
BANKING ON HEAVEN
http://www.bankingonheaven.com/

X-POLYGAMIST WIFE in Arizona

[BryantG]

We're with you.

[naschkatze]

It boggles the mind that the pollsters continue to say that the national polls are tightening. It's o.k. with me because I don't want our side to get too complacent. But in light of Obama now having 3.1 million donors to the tune of $150 million in September and in light of all the major newspaper endorsements and the poll which states Obama won over the independents and even some Republicans in the last debate, it's laughable. Over at AmBlog they are suggesting that the pollsters are using the old model which just doesn't work this year.

[sdkendra]

I think mccains negaitivitity will become more intense as he becomes more desperate and this will be his undoing !!!