Expect McCain to Gain Ground These Final Weeks
As we head into the home stretch, it is going to be important for those analyzing the election not to confuse McCain gaining a few points with him once again having the opportunity to win the election.
The Pollster.com national polling average this morning is 50 Obama, 43 McCain. Where will the movement be in these final three weeks? If the election ends up 4-6 points for Obama, this means we end up 52-48, 53-47, or something like that. My sense now is that McCain is likely to gain 4-5 points in this these final few weeks and return to a respectable level for a credible GOP candidate. Part of what may drive this movement in the next few weeks is McCain bouncing back up from his current below-the-floor position. I mean 43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there.
McCain's gains these coming weeks will be because he had been so dramatically underperforming since his successful convention. His erratic performance in the debates, his very public confusion during that first week of the financial crisis, the cratering of Sarah Palin, have all combined to leave him several points below where he should be at this point. In these next few weeks he will in all likelihood regain ground he should have been occupying all along but lost due to his disappointing campaign. So in many ways, McCain's likely uptick is more a sign of his current weakness than any newfound strength.
Getting back up to 46, 47, 48 is not the same as winning. My guess is there will be a lot of confusion about this in the chattering classes in the next few weeks.
Looking at the Kos am roundup, what we are seeing is a slight uptick in the McCain number with no decline in the Obama number. The real trend line to watch now is Obama's -- if he holds at 49,50,51 -- he will win. If he starts dropping below that, we may have a race on our hands.
I've always believed the main issue in the general election was whether Obama could give enough people enough comfort about him and his views to take the ground the American people were ready to give him. The debates, his strong performance during the financial crisis, a series of direct-to-camera ads have done a lot to give people more comfort about this new kid with a funny name whom we all have just gotten to know. My sense now is that the Obama campaign's positive TV tracks must stay relentlessly direct-to-camera, and they would be wise to replicate in some form the three direct-to-camera ads about our economic future and the struggle of everyday people run during the financial crisis (similar to the great two-minute close he made in Iowa) as the main way they close in the home stretch.
I have also always believed that Obama's final 2-3 points would come late, at the very end, as they often do for a challenger against a better known candidate. Which means we could see some kind of a McCain surge now with Obama closing it out in the final week or so -- if he performs well.
Or not....
It is hard to believe we are at the end of this historic campaign. But we are, and like all campaigns, the final 18 days is at least one political lifetime left to go.
Crossposted at the NDN Blog.
Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729
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Huh???Is this guy living under a rock? McBush is closing in???? With his slime politics, and people coming out of the woodwork to support Obama?? I guess this is very much like McBush claiming, when Obama is 10 points ahead, that he has him right where he wants him. O-kaaaayyy.
The real problem for the repub ticket is that they have now been seen for what they are: a couple of completely misinformed, ill-educated morons. I don't think that they can overcome the picture of themselves that they created.
They have frightened all thinking Americans to the point of no return.
They've probably frightened low-information voters like you. If you were more widely read -- and over a longer period of time -- you'd realize that despite all the hype that Obama has paid for (with your money) McCain Palin are the better choice.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Tell me another joke.
As the countries condition worsens you keep putting the same crowd in office. You may be the opposite of a low-information voter but obviously there's something lacking about your information.
Mr. Rosenberg,
What is your take now that Colin Powell has just enthusiastically and convincingly endorsed Barack Obama with well-reasoned justification?
Personally, I think we all saw McCain's "dead cat bounce" immediately after he announced Sarah Palin as his running mate, but then I'm not the influential blogger.
Simon,,,,,,,,where have you been for the past 8 years.
the end game is on - tactics will dictate, not necessarily national polls. McCain's big problem is that he has to crack Obama in Colo, New Mexico or Iowa...and not lose any of the other tossups and reverse Virginia......so Obama keeps him pinned down fighting for states like Florida and North Carolian and sneaks the win out west....hard to see McCain winning given his flap about water rights - with colo and Iowa going...he's gonna win in Richardson's state???
Expect McCain to really screw up in the next three weeks.
I really don't understand why everyone thinks Obama is for change. He voted party line 97% of the time (check it out at Factcheck.) but rails at McCain for voting party only 90% of the time. And how many of those 90% did they both agree on? Also NPR, Washington Times and Rasmussen note that McCain reached across the aisle more than Obama. Check those out too. So if Obama is really going to be different, and reach across the aisle more and heal and not divide - why hasn't he done it for the last 3 years? What is he waiting for? McCain has been doing it all along. If people would just tell the real truth - you are voting for Obama for many reasons - but none have to do with his experience or skill as a legislator. And lot's of us can see right through it.
The difference between Obama and McCain is that the first vote for mostly good policies and the other voted for disastrous policies. So when they said he voted 90% of the time with Bush, it means it's likely that he wouldn't do anything different than the current administration's policy.
I'll admit I don't know about the bipartisanship aspect of their record. But I think what matters to people in this election is that each voted for constructive policies. What I do admire about Obama's record is that he's got a common sense attitude about many issues. He understands the complexities, and many times instead of just voting yes or no chose to highlight aspects which could be improved in bills. And I think legislators ought to have enough intellect to dissect and scrutinize. If you ask me, it shows in many parts of his policy plans. I don't think he always got the right answers, in fact I feel he should explain more some of his policy choices. But you can't deny he's fit for the job. I think with Obama reality takes over outdated dysfunctional ideology. I hope republicans will learn a thing or two about that.
Why would you equate bipartisanship with change. The change will be a centrist Democratic administration instead of a fascist Republican administration. If you reach out to Republicans you pull back a stump. Obama is not a fool.
One of the big differences is Obama has good jugement and is for the people, and McBush has bad judgement and is for himself. What's the good of 'reaching across the aisle' when you STILL don't get anything done??? So that he can say, " hey,, I tried, I went up against my party". Secondly, Obama has a good temperament, BcBush doesn't, and he represents the 'good old boy network' in Washington. If you think he's actually interested in changing that, good luck to ya'.
The fact that Obama voting with his party 97% of the time is considered by most people to be a positive, because it meant he was voting against another wrong-headed sleazy policy or piece of legislation put up by the Bush Administration. In case you hadn't heard, they're not real popular right now.
McCain, on the other hand, sold any credibility he had down the river by becoming the Bush Administration's personal hand puppet over the last 4 years. Yes, the same group of people who slimed him by saying his adopting Bangladeshi daughter was his illegitimate black daughter, he has willingly carries their water on the War, taxes and dozens of other policies currently turning the US into laughing stock around the world. All in the service of his ambition to be president.
Someone so clearly lacking any principles should not be running for dogcatcher, let alone president.
If you had any notion of principles or honor yourself, you might understand this.
You mmonarch started off by saying I don't understand. That's the problem with the McCainn ticket. You are right where you should be (with them). The entire party don't understand. Blind leading the Dumb!
Even with all democrates trying to explain any of it to you somehow I feel you still would'nt understand. This is the foundation on which the McCain camp has been running their campaign, nobody understands Sh#@!
It's up to us to ignore the MSM chattering classes, and keep working on 0's campaign. Anyone who thinks 0 has it in the bag is naive. We can't let up for a second.
Besides the unknown Bradley/anti-Bradley/no-Bradley effect, voting fraud is going on now. And I don't mean ACORN.
I agree that Undecideds aren't for Obama. I think that some of those "undecided" voters we saw in focus groups on TV through the end of debates were lying to stay on TV.
I'm an official election-day poll watcher. Fortunately, Colorado has gone to paper ballots this year. I still feel better being there watching what's going on at my assigned polling place.
Please don't be complacent!
I don't expect McCain's status to improve, especially given the recent upsurge in hyper-negative activity by his campaign. Besides, Obama's arsenal is fully-loaded if by chance he does need to unload. The race may stay tight but Obama's already up well over 270 and slowly building state-by-state leads.
All the 'undecideds' are McCain's. There is such a real, fundamental difference between these candidates - so why are these folks not commiting. They could just say - "McCain" and be done with it - but they are not.
My guess is that they know McCain is wrong - the Palin pick was stupid and cynical, the 'redistribution' of wealth argument is also stupid after 8 years when we've redistributed the wealth up to the richest in - but they can't say "Obama".
Might be racism (unfortunately, we're not rid of that in this country) or it might be that the Republicans are getting to them with the 'values' crap.
Whatever, they are McCain votes if they actually show up to vote. So, hope that they don't vote because deep down they know a vote for McCain is against their own interests and the interests of the country. They know Palin would be a danger in the White House and they know they would be danger of losing their health care and whatever financial security they had.
That's what I think - VOTE Obama.
I generally tell pollsters I'm voting for Obama, even though I'm not.
I generally tell pollsters I'm voting for McCain, even though I'm not.
I tell pollsters to go to he!! it's none of their business. Wait for Nov 4th.
Obama raises $100 million in September!
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/election_central_saturday_roun_34.php
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/18/us/politics/18ads.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
this 'who is/isn't an American' attempt to generate a witch hunt seems to be all manure, guess now see what grows in it
I expect mccain to do a u-turn and revert to his maverick war hero media darling self in the next two weeks. He's roused the rabble to ensure voter turnout in the swing states and will try to pick up independents and moderate repubs in the final two weeks. Palin will stay in redneck territory and keep the hot blood boiling. I'm afraid some of the vile stuff the rnc and campaign are putting out will stick and people who are just barely in Obama's court now will capitulate.
I keep imagining what it would be like on Nov. 5 if Obama were to lose. All I dredge up is stunned silence.
Or defiant riotts.
Or America's last chance at redemption in the eyes of the entire world going up in disgusted flames.
That won't happen though, so why waste your worry. Get out there and canvass, phone bank and donate to make sure it is not so. I am doing it from home and so can you.
I imagine more than that.
I still can't shake the really bad feeling I have bout those diebold machines.
We have already witnessed the results they can produce.
Why voters are not demanding a paper ballot and/or receipt is beyond me. What will it take for people to wake up in this country. Even in my solidly republican community who's elected registrar is an evangelical preacher - we have a paper fed electronic machine.
People - vote absentee - demand a paper ballot - hold the registrar's office accountable.
Our county ran out of ballots in the primary elections. The voters were riotous and refused to leave without casting their votes. If we can demand accountablity - everyone can. Don't let them steal our election again!!
I agree completely. The voter should keep one copy of the receipt and the other copy should go to whatever secure place paper ballots are kept in the event of an audit. The sole function of the electronic machines should be to count ballots quickly not to invent results.
You can only control what you can control, and that is alot. We vote, we can vote in massive numbers like we did in 2006 and make sure it can't be fixed. Just do everything you can to make sure as many people you can get to vote democratic do it.
McCain may get 1-2 points from his base responding to the hate-calls, but with no new policies, or real tactics for separating himself from George W. Bush, he's going down hard. His only hope is the electronic voting machine "vote-balancing" programs.
I love the way the republicans are offering themselves as the only alternative to themselves.
I'm afraid those Diebold machines are going to be McCains savior.
And it scares the crap out of me.
We need LOTS of volunteers out there at each election precinct observing and reporting.
Frankly, I don't understand why more states don't vote like Oregon does.
Nearly does anyone in Oregon. It's fraud-free, it works like a charm, the repubs have no way to throw it in to chaos, the results are out more quickly. It's way past time for the rest of the country to pick up the model and run with it.
The expectations of a tighter race as posited in the post are rational based on history but may not come about because:
1) Continued weakening of the economy
2) Huge spending advantage for Obama
3) Possible Powell endorsement
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