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Expect McCain to Gain Ground These Final Weeks
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2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mccain Gains Ground, Poll Numbers,
Politics News
As we head into the home stretch, it is going to be important for those analyzing the election not to confuse McCain gaining a few points with him once again having the opportunity to win the election.
The Pollster.com national polling average this morning is 50 Obama, 43 McCain. Where will the movement be in these final three weeks? If the election ends up 4-6 points for Obama, this means we end up 52-48, 53-47, or something like that. My sense now is that McCain is likely to gain 4-5 points in this these final few weeks and return to a respectable level for a credible GOP candidate. Part of what may drive this movement in the next few weeks is McCain bouncing back up from his current below-the-floor position. I mean 43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there.
McCain's gains these coming weeks will be because he had been so dramatically underperforming since his successful convention. His erratic performance in the debates, his very public confusion during that first week of the financial crisis, the cratering of Sarah Palin, have all combined to leave him several points below where he should be at this point. In these next few weeks he will in all likelihood regain ground he should have been occupying all along but lost due to his disappointing campaign. So in many ways, McCain's likely uptick is more a sign of his current weakness than any newfound strength.
Getting back up to 46, 47, 48 is not the same as winning. My guess is there will be a lot of confusion about this in the chattering classes in the next few weeks.
Looking at the Kos am roundup, what we are seeing is a slight uptick in the McCain number with no decline in the Obama number. The real trend line to watch now is Obama's -- if he holds at 49,50,51 -- he will win. If he starts dropping below that, we may have a race on our hands.
I've always believed the main issue in the general election was whether Obama could give enough people enough comfort about him and his views to take the ground the American people were ready to give him. The debates, his strong performance during the financial crisis, a series of direct-to-camera ads have done a lot to give people more comfort about this new kid with a funny name whom we all have just gotten to know. My sense now is that the Obama campaign's positive TV tracks must stay relentlessly direct-to-camera, and they would be wise to replicate in some form the three direct-to-camera ads about our economic future and the struggle of everyday people run during the financial crisis (similar to the great two-minute close he made in Iowa) as the main way they close in the home stretch.
I have also always believed that Obama's final 2-3 points would come late, at the very end, as they often do for a challenger against a better known candidate. Which means we could see some kind of a McCain surge now with Obama closing it out in the final week or so -- if he performs well.
Or not....
It is hard to believe we are at the end of this historic campaign. But we are, and like all campaigns, the final 18 days is at least one political lifetime left to go.
Crossposted at the NDN Blog.
Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729
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Barack Obama live in Missouri: http://ori
http://ele
As of October 18, 12:00PM EDT: Obama: 367 McCain: 171 Meta-margin: Obama +6.6%
McCain is going to have a tough time gaining ground... When a majority of people think he is not qualified to be POTUS.
http://www
Look at the Forbes online poll... Maybe take a second to vote, but you can view results without voting
With Colin Powell expected to endorse OIama on 'Meet the Press' this coming Sunday, I would expect other Republicans like Chuck Hagel to follow suit. These endorsements will help Obama keep, or even slightly increase, his numbers. But, there still is the issue of what Osama bin Laden will do in the final weeks to influnce the election, as he did in 2004 , with the release of a video just days prior to voting day. We'll just have to wait and see if the electorate will be similarly influenced. I think not, not with unemployment numbers continuing to surge.
Given the phone calls, the extreme positions of some of the republicans and the rhetoric of palin on the stump, I forsee a few more republicans coming out for Barack. They have to maintain some kind of credibility in these final days of this election.
Moderate republicans can't be happy with the Mccain camp. They went way over the line and show no sign of doing anything but going farther. If they take a look back at the last democratic administration, they were conservative compared to Palin Mccain. Certainly, Obama-Biden represent a moderate ticket no matter how they try to paint them.
you mean the repugs will pull out the "new" OBL tape they have been sitting on for months already?
I don't think an Osama bin Ladin tape would help McCain. Sen. Obama has been saying for years now that he's been eager to go after Osama bin Ladin. It would be just part of the climate amidst the economic meltdown, rather than being the only thing to talk about for a couple of weeks that you'd have in a less financially perilous time.
Funny how having nothing in your pocketbook makes you more likely to focus on "pocketbook issues"...
Government/Obiden '08!
It is going to get really dirty by the Repubs so watch for more crap. One of the biggest pos is the fact that the Repubs do not want government in our lives, but do not mind putting government into my body and forcing me to carry an unwanted pregnancy. Again, I ask, why aren't the Palin children in school?
You're right, they are going to get real dirty. But the republicans that dont want to get that dirty and radical with them will divide their party and it could be for a long time. John and Sarah are way out there on the fringe, It's going to be interesting to see who and how many republicans are going to go out there with them. There are 3 that come to mind, Senators; Snow, Collins and Hagel.
obama/biden would win by a landslide ...that's if the machines were truthful.
Lining up your excuses already? Gore revisited? The thing about Gore was, he didn't even carry his OWN state. Let's see if Obama does. He may carry Cook County and Chicago cause Richie Daley and his thugs can strong arm some votes like his daddy did for JFK. But downstate, those farmers don't like paying for all of those programs for the big city, nor do they like being treated like second class citizens.
Obama is up by over 15% in Illinois and he's beating McCain by 13% in Iowa. The farmers seem to love Obama.
Vote theft is changing the election=McCain Wins!! private companies were subcontracted to count votes, there is no government run election system.
Who counts the votes rules.
October 18, 2008
http://www
Two early voters said touch-screen machines in Ripley kept switching their votes from Democratic to Republican candidates.
http://www
10/1/08: Former Diebold Contractor Blows The Whistle
http://www
GOP Cyber security expert Stephen Spoonamore re: upcoming election,,, his testimony, & new Ohio litigation/ Karl Rove et al.
http://www
Segment 1: http://www
(total of 8 parts/ transcript
"I’ve been a lifelong member of the(republican) party. This is not a democrat-republican issue. This is not a partisan issue. This is a democracy issue. If you actually care about a constitutional democracy in which each person votes, that vote is validated, and the people who end up in office are reflected on the basis of the way people voted, you care about this issue.- ... in old statistical information it seems that in every single bizarre circumstance where exit data, where polling data, informational data swings, it has all been in favor of republicans, but not the sort of republicans that I want to see in office at all."
"You know what the real problem is? People do not want to believe that people want to steal elections in this country."
I believe it. I lived it here in Florida. Katherine Harris took it from Gore and gave it to Bush for a cabinet. Just as easily as I am able to type.
He stole it, we know it.
I just left this morning's Minneapolis Star Tribune website. One article describes a Democratic county commissioner who received a robocall yesterday at work. He got digging and discovered that the company behind it is the same one that smeared McCain in 2000 and headed by our own Mr. Larson, the same one that rented Norm Coleman an apartment at a super reduced rate in Washington.
And since I have the great misfortune to live in Michelle Bachman's district, the Trib is going nuts with forum feedback on the great hunt for anti-american Americans. Posts are running about 7-1 against sending her back to Washington, agreement with posts is roughly 10-1 in favor of those kinds of posts.
Fascinating.
You know what...I am going to stay POSITIVE!! I'm thinking that this will be the year of the "Reverse Bradley" effect. More and more, people are surprising me. I have spoken to quite a few people who were for McCain who have said that the Palin pick put them over the edge. They refuse to vote for McCain and will now vote for Obama. I think that many wh**te people who publicly claim support for McCain will in all actuality, vote for Obama....b
All we need is a little rain storm here in Michigan and the Republicans will stay home in droves. They are already defeated and don't want to get wet.
I suspect that if the Bachmann (R- Minnesota) interview keeps getting a lot of play and picks up speed, that in fact McCain is going to lose ground. That woman is out of control and made some very irresponsible claims. Why does the McCain campaign let people like that speak for them. People like her are why McCain is going to lose this thing.
McCain and RNC sending out nasty robocalls.
Oklahoma newspaper delivering KKKflier
http://raw
If these tactics = gain ground, Gawd help us all!
You know what...I am going to stay POSITIVE!! I'm thinking that this will be the year of the "Reverse Bradley" effect. More and more, people are surprising me. I have spoken to quite a few people who were for McCain who have said that the Palin pick put them over the edge. They refuse to vote for McCain and will now vote for Obama. I think that many whites who publicly claim support for McCain will in all actuality, vote for Obama....b
You know what...I am going to stay POSITIVE!! I'm thinking that this will be the year of the "Reverse Bradley" effect. More and more, people are surprising me. I have spoken to quite a few people who were for McCain who have said that the Palin pick put them over the edge. They refuse to vote for McCain and will now vote for Obama. I think that many whites who publicly claim support for McCain will in all actuality, vote for Obama....b
WITH THE CLASS OF THE NEW GENERATION BREAKIN THE BARRIER OF MIND CONTROL, OBAMA IS ON HIS WAY :)
yes!
Factor in the robo calls and this election is going to be very close. It would be nice if the Democrats were to retaliate against the calls in some way. Why do they always wimp out in the end?
The Dems have NOT wimped out at all.......
There is already demands from those states targeted by these disgusting robo calls to get them stopped...
Don't get down, Obama is much better prepared, and a harder worker, than Kerry. Remeber Robocalls are really annoying and can turn people off.
my point exactly...
as long as this story is plastered all over the MSM - it will be exposed for what it is.
several MSM outlets are reporting this and the incidence of KKKfliers in OK newspapers and the "Obsession" DVD that was slipped into several states' papers.
Just keep pounding the MSM to report these stories for exactly what they are
Wish election is over... exhausted.
all the poll(s) I have seen recently - are not like "Wall Street"...
Just deleted several emails from friends (wonder this will be true after the election?)
indoctrinate with their opinions..
Oh yes, STOP filling my emailbox - end up in Trash...
warning did not work
I usually reply back with one or two words like "Yawn" or "Gross!" or "Get a Clue!"
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