Expect McCain to Gain Ground These Final Weeks
As we head into the home stretch, it is going to be important for those analyzing the election not to confuse McCain gaining a few points with him once again having the opportunity to win the election.
The Pollster.com national polling average this morning is 50 Obama, 43 McCain. Where will the movement be in these final three weeks? If the election ends up 4-6 points for Obama, this means we end up 52-48, 53-47, or something like that. My sense now is that McCain is likely to gain 4-5 points in this these final few weeks and return to a respectable level for a credible GOP candidate. Part of what may drive this movement in the next few weeks is McCain bouncing back up from his current below-the-floor position. I mean 43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there.
McCain's gains these coming weeks will be because he had been so dramatically underperforming since his successful convention. His erratic performance in the debates, his very public confusion during that first week of the financial crisis, the cratering of Sarah Palin, have all combined to leave him several points below where he should be at this point. In these next few weeks he will in all likelihood regain ground he should have been occupying all along but lost due to his disappointing campaign. So in many ways, McCain's likely uptick is more a sign of his current weakness than any newfound strength.
Getting back up to 46, 47, 48 is not the same as winning. My guess is there will be a lot of confusion about this in the chattering classes in the next few weeks.
Looking at the Kos am roundup, what we are seeing is a slight uptick in the McCain number with no decline in the Obama number. The real trend line to watch now is Obama's -- if he holds at 49,50,51 -- he will win. If he starts dropping below that, we may have a race on our hands.
I've always believed the main issue in the general election was whether Obama could give enough people enough comfort about him and his views to take the ground the American people were ready to give him. The debates, his strong performance during the financial crisis, a series of direct-to-camera ads have done a lot to give people more comfort about this new kid with a funny name whom we all have just gotten to know. My sense now is that the Obama campaign's positive TV tracks must stay relentlessly direct-to-camera, and they would be wise to replicate in some form the three direct-to-camera ads about our economic future and the struggle of everyday people run during the financial crisis (similar to the great two-minute close he made in Iowa) as the main way they close in the home stretch.
I have also always believed that Obama's final 2-3 points would come late, at the very end, as they often do for a challenger against a better known candidate. Which means we could see some kind of a McCain surge now with Obama closing it out in the final week or so -- if he performs well.
Or not....
It is hard to believe we are at the end of this historic campaign. But we are, and like all campaigns, the final 18 days is at least one political lifetime left to go.
Crossposted at the NDN Blog.
Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729
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Thanks very much for this post, I have trouble sleeping when I think of McCain somehow pulling this out.
I think Palin and Bachman have just handed Obama a margin of victory in their McCarthyesque statements about Pro American parts of the country.
I think this election right now is about alpha male behavior and palpable enemies.
Obama has already won the economy argument, because the financial crisis is more of a diffused problem much more suited to Obama's deliberate style.
McCain has no palpable enemy against which to demonstrate his dominate male behavior so he is creating enemies right and left.
The McCarthyism gives Obama a palpable target, so go after it with everything. This brings Obama back full circle to his initial address in 2004, the speech which made him so compelling in the first place.
BBC - The Theft of 2008
http://www
MUST WATCH
It must be so exhausting for those diehard Republicans to have that constant need to "teach" the rest of us who is good for our country and who isn't. After all, if you're not for McCain, you must be anti American. And if you're anti American, you must be a liberal Obama supporter.
Hence, if you're an Obama supporter, you don't understand or aren't intelligent enough without their omnipotence, their divine interventi
...and they call the left and the media ELITE. You are right what a bunch of arrogant hypocrites those WACKOS pushing for McCarthyist tactics.
The popular vote would be nice, but it would be fitting if Obama won like Bush, on the electoral vote
Thank you for adding a voice of reason. I suppose this election will either to serve to reinforce my cynicism about the American electorate or I will be pleasantly surprised by the results of the election. No sane person should believe that Sen. Obama will defeat McCain by double digits. It is not going to happen. Do not believe the polls and remain vigilant.
Secondly, the way this campaign has gone nothing is a lock. I am sure President Hillary Clinton and President Mitt Romney both thought they were a lock. Sen. Obama is right to remind people of what happened in the NH primary. The undecideds broke heavily for Sen. Clinton. It is safe to assume that if someone is still undecided at this point they are more likely to vote for Sen. McCain. I would guess (based on nothing in particular) 2-1 for McCain.
Let's run scared, keep working, and win. I just sent a contribution to, Mr. Tinklenberg, who is the
Minnesota opponent of Michelle Bachman who made the horrible comments to Chris Matthews.
I think Obama can stir people up on this one, and Tinklenberg's fund raising since this episode happened is very newsworthy. Also, made another contribution to Obama, which will be matched.
keep the faith.
One reason to vote early if it's an option in your state is very simple: If there is a problem you have an opportunity to correct it before Nov. 4th.
Let's say for example your name was wrongly purged from the voter lists. If you find out now you can take steps to remedy the problem before Nov. 4th and still have your vote count. If you wait until Election Day and find out your name was wrongly purged, you'll be out of luck and be disenfranchised from voting. By voting early you'll make sure your vote counts.
Vote early if possible, and then volunteer to work in the Get Out The Vote Effort. We cannot afford to get complacent now.
We need to focus, work hard, and not stop until all polls in the country have closed. This is the most important election our country has faced in my lifetime. Let this be the year that the people take their country back.
YES WE CAN!
Far from over: Mcsame can turn Fla, Va, NC, Oh, Mo, ND, Nv, and which ever one I'm forgetting and he goes from the estimated 180 EV, to over the 270 mark.
Don't get too complacent! Only a few votes have been cast and the slime machine is just warming up. DOn't be surprised- their is no dignity, no pride, no class and no sense of fairness and honesty on the right. NONE.
Remember how Hilary C won the dem primary and Johnnie Mcsame had no chance of winning the rep primaries? Polls are not the final vote and are very fallible.
Those polls were from this calendar year (seems like a life time ago almost). The righties can easily pull this off (they'd steal it again if no one is watching closely).
No one and no one's vote is safe.
go to fivethirty
between huff and 538 i feel better!
me too...
i dont think it matters what mccain says he is finished as long as obama gets the vote out and i think he will.
All this talk about the popular vote is kind of misleading, isn't it? According to NYT, Obama has a pretty good lock on the electoral votes: 277 to McCain's 185 so far, with 270 needed to win. I know things could turn around, but a McCain victory seems more and more unlikely.
I voted early for one reason only. Paper ballot.
I don't trust hackable computers.
From WTHR, Channel 13 in Indianapolis:
http://www
I want to wait until Nov.4 to vote. I guess I just like the feeling of going out on election day. I live close to the polls and if I have to walk a mile to get there I will. Nothing will stop me or anyone else I know. My 21 year old son voted in Iowa last Thursday, he was a little dismayed by the long lines. I told him not to worry about it, long lines were good. He did vote and was late for class. We may want to continue to encourage first time voters to get out there and vote. Yes, he voted for Obama/Biden and so is the rest of my family.
I feel as strongly as you do. I have put off surgery on a major artery to make sure I get to the polls. It is the most important election in our times.
OBAMA/BIDEN'08.
I live in a small town like the one what's-her-name says are more American. Yesterday a group of us gathered at my kitchen table to mark ballots for Obama/Biden and then went off to the post office to mail them. It was like sweet revenge. A ballot marking party. Goes along way to shaking off George Bush. The first step toward recovering our country.
I LOVE IT!
Insightful piece - especially about Obama needing to stay above the 50% threshold.
One interesting phenominon throughout the campaign: Whenever Sen. Obama has appeared in a debate, his polling numbers have inched up by 2 or 3% regardless of who supposedly did or did not win the debate.
I believe the reason for this is the "familiarity" factor. The more often people see Sen. Obama as part of the mainstream, the higher the number of undecided voters feel more comfortable with him.
Which is why it was smart of Team Obama to make 30-minute ad buys the week prior to Nov. 4. They have several available options for using the 30-minutes (They can run biographical documentary, hold a "live" call-in Town Meeting, hold a pre-taped call-in Town Meeting, hold a "live" in-person Town Meeting, hold a fire-side chat among the Obama family or with dialogs between Sens Obama, Biden and others or use some of the time to refute any serious last-minute attacks or Oct. Surprises).
The important thing is that the half-hour will allow Barack and the American people to get to know one another better- and this add at least a couple of points to his margin.
(Of course, there are several big unknowns that could impact the election results - new registrations, voter-suppression hanky panky, Bradley and Reverse-Bradley affects and late-breaking events on the ground). But all things being equal, prospects look decent for an Obama win.
VOTE EARLY!
Do the early voting if your state offers it! I voted yesterday! It's easy!
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