Expect McCain to Gain Ground These Final Weeks

As we head into the home stretch, it is going to be important for those analyzing the election not to confuse McCain gaining a few points with him once again having the opportunity to win the election.

The Pollster.com national polling average this morning is 50 Obama, 43 McCain. Where will the movement be in these final three weeks? If the election ends up 4-6 points for Obama, this means we end up 52-48, 53-47, or something like that. My sense now is that McCain is likely to gain 4-5 points in this these final few weeks and return to a respectable level for a credible GOP candidate. Part of what may drive this movement in the next few weeks is McCain bouncing back up from his current below-the-floor position. I mean 43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there.

McCain's gains these coming weeks will be because he had been so dramatically underperforming since his successful convention. His erratic performance in the debates, his very public confusion during that first week of the financial crisis, the cratering of Sarah Palin, have all combined to leave him several points below where he should be at this point. In these next few weeks he will in all likelihood regain ground he should have been occupying all along but lost due to his disappointing campaign. So in many ways, McCain's likely uptick is more a sign of his current weakness than any newfound strength.

Getting back up to 46, 47, 48 is not the same as winning. My guess is there will be a lot of confusion about this in the chattering classes in the next few weeks.

Looking at the Kos am roundup, what we are seeing is a slight uptick in the McCain number with no decline in the Obama number. The real trend line to watch now is Obama's -- if he holds at 49,50,51 -- he will win. If he starts dropping below that, we may have a race on our hands.

I've always believed the main issue in the general election was whether Obama could give enough people enough comfort about him and his views to take the ground the American people were ready to give him. The debates, his strong performance during the financial crisis, a series of direct-to-camera ads have done a lot to give people more comfort about this new kid with a funny name whom we all have just gotten to know. My sense now is that the Obama campaign's positive TV tracks must stay relentlessly direct-to-camera, and they would be wise to replicate in some form the three direct-to-camera ads about our economic future and the struggle of everyday people run during the financial crisis (similar to the great two-minute close he made in Iowa) as the main way they close in the home stretch.

I have also always believed that Obama's final 2-3 points would come late, at the very end, as they often do for a challenger against a better known candidate. Which means we could see some kind of a McCain surge now with Obama closing it out in the final week or so -- if he performs well.

Or not....

It is hard to believe we are at the end of this historic campaign. But we are, and like all campaigns, the final 18 days is at least one political lifetime left to go.

Crossposted at the NDN Blog.

Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729

Comments

[BeltwayBette]

Please eveyone forgive me for positng this if it's off topic. I believe you will agree when you read it that this information needs to get out.
----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­------
The second shoe fell last night.
----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­-----
Last night, Obama's legal counsel appeared on the Olbermann and Maddow shows. Sen Obama has requested that an ***impartial investigation*** be lauched to determine if McCain/Bush and Bush's Justice Department are in collusion to disenfranchise thousands of voters. The latest dirty tactic ? Set up Obama as the villain who, as McCain telegraphed during Debate 3 is tryng to "destroy the fabric of our democracy." by linking him with the trumped up investigation of ACORN and defaming them both.

Obama is legally fighting the Bush/Chene­y/McCain/P­alin game plan now before the elections to checkmate these criminals from destroying our electoral process and our democracy.

IMHO, Legally fighting the Repubican army and their extremely wealthy supporters, Sen Obama will need every penny he can get. ***And all our votes. ****

I donated this morning.

We won WWII. We are now again in a war against very evil folks -- this time from within our nation -- and to save our families' futures, we MUST win this time around.
If you have been considering donating, would you please do it now?
A female veteran, mother, and grandmother for Obama/Biden and our nation.

[Sadie1976]

Take advantage of early voting if your state offers it!

Vote early where ever possible! Don't wait!

[lucite]

I live in a locked dwon solid republican town. Not this time everyone is voting Obama/Biden

[Sadie1976]

If your state offers early voting, do it!

VOTE before Nov. 4th, where ever possible!

It's very easy! I voted yesterday!

[Sadie1976]

If it's possible in your state to vote early, DO SO! Avoid the long lines on election day! My husband and I voted yesterday!

I attended a Michelle Obama rally last week, was honored to shake her hand! She's a lovely lady! They also emphasized the importance of voting early!

IVOTE EARLY, wherever possible!

[DebbieinPhx]

I blogged with a person in VA yesterday who said that the early ballotting opened through out the state, and that the lines just to submit the ballot were three hours long.

[soupson52]

Wow.

[naschkatze]

Obama supporters, everyone must get out and vote. Don't be complacent. Even on election night, should the race be declared early for Obama, still get out and vote even if you live in the far west like me. We must give Obama every single possible popular vote that we can. This is the time for that wonderful quote from Harriet Tubman which Hillary Clinton used in her convention speech, "If you see the torches in the woods behind you, just keep running, if you hear the dogs behind you, just keep running. . . "

[BeltwayBette]

Wonderful wonderful quote. Thank you for posting it. JMB

[soupson52]

Gave me chills. TU.

[wagthedog1001]

HOLY SH%$...Them dogs is wearin' lipstick!

[naschkatze]

Since I posted this, I read another, probably even more important, reason not to stay at home even if Obama is declared winner early on. We have to continue to vote to get our majorities in the House and Senate raised even higher, and there are many ballot measures in our states we want to get passed.

[bigironal25]

The us supreme court sided with the election officials in Ohio in the voting fraud probe ,which is a HUGE victory for the voters of Ohio and it sent a message to the Republicans that voter fraud will not work this time and Obama's people were ready this time and told the Dept of Justice that they want the special prosecutor to look at the GOP for voter fraud! WOW, the democrats are not only pushing back on the republicans, they are SHOVING back!This bold move ,by the dems caught the McCain campaign flat-footed!,

[k6007]

Wear comfortable shoes, appropriate clothing, take a drink and snacks with you, there are SURE to be LONG lines. A book, your ipod, your phone, all three:) And, whatever you do....Dont. Leave. Until. You. VOTE!!!
Take friends with you, the more the merrier!!!

[parvo63]

I followed your advice in the early Wisconsin voting. Took my phone, a book, and a dozen friends, and we all never left before we all voted for McCain.

[nowRnever]

Fortunately, we live in America. And even the ignorant like you and your friends have the right to vote.

[criquet]

No problem , unlike the GOP side diversity and difference of opinion is respected.

[AlaskanWannaB]

Good for you! And, when the rest of your 401K goes through the tank, blame yourself. And, when you are no longer able to get adequate healthcare to cover a possible catastrophic illness, blame yourself. And, when your Medicare/Medicaid benefits does not adequately cover your illnesses and prescription drug costs, blame yourself. And, if he privatize your Social Security or cut Social Security benefits, blame yourself. And, if we are embroiled in a third war with Iran, blame yourself.

[live]

you have a dozen friends?

i wouldnt let my "friend" vote rethug...

[Brillig]

Wis...where? IS that a state anymore?

[eirrac]

A big problem in our state, yet again, is going to be Republican-backed voter fraud. Everyone knows it. And, as in the last two elections, they will also again create hassles at the polls, creating long lines and driving some voters away. I hope this year they get sued, even if election results are delayed. My family and some of our friends will vote early on election day and stay at the polls to hold places in line for people who need to reregister (because of Repubican caging techniques), visit a restroom, pick up kids from school, sit down for awhile, or whatever else they need. We'll keep their places in line for them so their wait won't be so difficult. Please, people...help each other out. Our votes are too important to let some thugs drive away voters and steal yet another election with threats, false mailings, and other illegal tactics. It was pretty obvious, in our community last time, as to what was happening. IWe hope this time the Republicans get the book thrown at them.

[SShaw490]

If you look at Real Clear Politics' head to head matchup, Obama is at 49.7 and McCain is at 43.1. But if you look at RCPs matchup including Nader and Barr, Obama is at 49.8 and McCain is at 40.5 - which implies that Nader and Barr are pulling votes from McCain, not Obama. Coupled with the fact that McCain's support is highly concentrated in certain states and he doesn't have a good electoral map working for him, implies that McCain would have to poll well above Obama to win.

So, as Simon Rosenburg said, all Obama has to do is keep his share at around 50 and he wins.

[lovingpolitics]

Yeah keep dreaming!!! This thing is going to get tight and the kool-aid kids are in for a November surprise!!!

[Marie9]

Remember, McCain will try to win by hook or crook if that's what it takes.

Please Vote!

Obama 08

[dmspeech]

Again Vote and get every Obama person to the polls. Every vote is going to count in this election because we all know that the Republican establishment has a lot to lose if Obama wins. There are a lot of Republican skeletons that could come dancing out with a Democratic Prez and Congress. Don't underestimate the Republican fear factor.

[k6007]

Go prepared for long lines! Comfortable shoes, warm clothes, a drink, a snack, a book, music, phone, and FRIENDS, the more the merrier!!!

Pack your patience and your resolve!!!

[SShaw490]

If you get in a long line, just keep in mind - you've waited eight years to get rid of Bush. You'd hate to risk 4 years of Bush The Second. That's a LONG time to wait.

[boing007]

k6007

Go prepared for long lines! Comfortable shoes, warm clothes, a drink, a snack, a book, music, phone, and FRIENDS, the more the merrier!!!

Pack your patience and your resolve!!!

And don't wear any Obama buttons or anything else that says who you are voting for.

[karela]

Chuck Todd went over this the other day. He says the Bradley effect is a myth this year. It ain't a gonna happen. He also said the race will tighten but it is unlikely to hurt Obama. Expect to see some of the undecideds turn to McCain so that his numbers come up a few points, but he doesn't think that Obama's numbers will go down. Which means Obama wins. The best bookie in Ireland has taken on millions of dollars of bets based on Obama winning. If Obama loses the guy will lose many millions---and he never loses. He says Obama is in. Period. Still, I'm going out to knock on doors and stuff envelopes today. We could use a lot of help. The Get Out the Vote plan is to stuff and hang a door knocker on EVERY door on the list---in my small town that means thousands. Help. Even a chicken liver about door knocking can stuff envelopes! Don't take anything for granted. There's a lot to lose.

[bahamaslass]

One more.... Franklin Roosevelt ' the liberty of democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to a point where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in its essence, is, fascism.'

Sounds all to familiar.....listen to our past, learn from it , and then vote to make a change.

[bahamaslass]

Teddy Roosevelt often observed that American democracy is too sturdy to be destroyed by a foreign enemy. But he warned, it could easily be destroyed by 'malefactors of great wealth' who would subvert our political institutions from within.
In 1863 Abraham Lincoln in the depths of the Civil War said ' I have the Confederacy before me and the bankers behind me, and for my country I fear the bankers most'.

Nothing changes unless you make the change, Vote for Oboma/Biden and we can stop history repeating itself.

Quotes taken from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Crimes Against Nature (2004).........a great read and something which still needs to be addressed, Bush is still raping this country, and four years since it's publication, of his policies have already made the words of this book more nightmarish!

[spambrando]

Yes, I AM scared to death that the Republicans will once again “steal” this election; even more afraid that McCain might win without stealing it.
I cannot believe there are still so many radically racist citizens in this country (in this day and age) that refuse to accept anything BUT the truth regarding Obama’s credentials and background. Just yesterday, my elderly neighbor’s sister (three of em, all in their eighties) siad she’d NEVER vote for “one of those African people”. Her two sisters agreed, no matter which facts I presented to them.
These Gabor sisters are only the tip of the iceberg. As Obama has repeatedly stated, this is no time to take the win for granted.

[BeltwayBette]

Spamn Brando: You are right to fear the Republicans.Their second shoe fell last night.
----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­----------­---------

Last night, Obama's legal counsel appeared on the Olbermann and Maddow shows. Sen Obama has requested that an ***impartial investigation*** be lauched to determine if McCain/Bush and Bush's Justice Department are in collusion to disenfranchise thousands of voters. The latest dirty tactic ? Set up Obama as the villain who, as McCain said during Debate 3 is tryng to "destroy the fabric of our democracy." by linking him with the trumped up investigation of ACORN and defaming them both.

Obama is fighting the Bush/Chene­y/McCain/P­alin game plan now before the elections to checkmate these criminals from destroying our electoral process and our democracy.

The Obama campaign is going to need more money. Legally fighting the Repubican army and their extremely wealthy supporters, Sen Obama will need every penny he can get.
***And ALL our votes. ****

I donated this morning.

This is the time for that wonderful quote from Harriet Tubman which Hillary Clinton used in her convention speech, "If you see the torches in the woods behind you, just keep running, if you hear the dogs behind you, just keep running. . . " Thanks to the poster who gave us this today.

[lovingpolitics]

Good for you every PENNY counts