Expect McCain to Gain Ground These Final Weeks

As we head into the home stretch, it is going to be important for those analyzing the election not to confuse McCain gaining a few points with him once again having the opportunity to win the election.

The Pollster.com national polling average this morning is 50 Obama, 43 McCain. Where will the movement be in these final three weeks? If the election ends up 4-6 points for Obama, this means we end up 52-48, 53-47, or something like that. My sense now is that McCain is likely to gain 4-5 points in this these final few weeks and return to a respectable level for a credible GOP candidate. Part of what may drive this movement in the next few weeks is McCain bouncing back up from his current below-the-floor position. I mean 43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there.

McCain's gains these coming weeks will be because he had been so dramatically underperforming since his successful convention. His erratic performance in the debates, his very public confusion during that first week of the financial crisis, the cratering of Sarah Palin, have all combined to leave him several points below where he should be at this point. In these next few weeks he will in all likelihood regain ground he should have been occupying all along but lost due to his disappointing campaign. So in many ways, McCain's likely uptick is more a sign of his current weakness than any newfound strength.

Getting back up to 46, 47, 48 is not the same as winning. My guess is there will be a lot of confusion about this in the chattering classes in the next few weeks.

Looking at the Kos am roundup, what we are seeing is a slight uptick in the McCain number with no decline in the Obama number. The real trend line to watch now is Obama's -- if he holds at 49,50,51 -- he will win. If he starts dropping below that, we may have a race on our hands.

I've always believed the main issue in the general election was whether Obama could give enough people enough comfort about him and his views to take the ground the American people were ready to give him. The debates, his strong performance during the financial crisis, a series of direct-to-camera ads have done a lot to give people more comfort about this new kid with a funny name whom we all have just gotten to know. My sense now is that the Obama campaign's positive TV tracks must stay relentlessly direct-to-camera, and they would be wise to replicate in some form the three direct-to-camera ads about our economic future and the struggle of everyday people run during the financial crisis (similar to the great two-minute close he made in Iowa) as the main way they close in the home stretch.

I have also always believed that Obama's final 2-3 points would come late, at the very end, as they often do for a challenger against a better known candidate. Which means we could see some kind of a McCain surge now with Obama closing it out in the final week or so -- if he performs well.

Or not....

It is hard to believe we are at the end of this historic campaign. But we are, and like all campaigns, the final 18 days is at least one political lifetime left to go.

Crossposted at the NDN Blog.

Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729

Comments

[Rebecca]

As we well know, Gore won the popular vote, but lost the election. We need to keep in mind that this has been a long process, and while we are ever-hopeful that Barack retains the lead in all polls, we must not get complacent or lazy. Vote with your dollars, first, by donating, and then vote for Barack, in person. We can change America - all of us, together.

[AgeofReason]

If you can't donate money, you can donate time. Every Obama office needs help with calls and knocking on doors. One way to make sure Obama wins is to help with his GOTV efforts!

[HHarvey]

Gore lost the election because he didn't inspire enough democrats, like me, to vote for him. I sat out that election. Not this year, I feel inspired.

[soupson52]

Had any regrets? (Like$10B a month and thousands of lives, theirs and ours?)

[Pepper14]

If Obama doesn't have a double digit lead by election today his chances of winning are slim. Bill Clinton had a 19 point lead going into the election and ended up winning only by 6 points and Jimmy Carter had a 13 point lead going into election day and ended up winning by 2 points. I think Obama is more worried than you think. When you think about all the million and millions of dollars he has spent and at best is 6 points ahead this is not a good sign and it could be he is over exposing himself by being on TV so much and also the media could be hurting him by assuming the race is over. Voters don't like to be told who is going to win before they have had a chance to vote. I also heard that the early voting turnout in Ohio is not very big.

[AgeofReason]

The latest poll in Virginia had him up by 6 among likely voters. But when you look at the actual poll, it says that the likely voter screen was "voted in 06 or 07." This means that it is worth pointing out again that polls are not generally measuring new voters or even those who only vote in Presidential years. We must fight the Republican voter supression efforts with all our might!

[bogues]

The only thing hurting Obama is the scurrilous, hateful, lying campaign that McCain has resorted to running. I am no spring chicken and I know campaigns get tough, but what McCain and Palin are doing to Obama goes beyond anything that the American people should be willing to accept. When this is all over, we will be more divided than ever before and it will be ALL John mcCain's and Sarah Palin's fault. If McCain was truly a man of honor, he would not have allowed his campaign to turn into a character annihilation machine. It is the saddest thing I have ever witnessed.

[Yermammy]

You better believe the rethugs are going to vote in DROVES. Repugnants vote EVERYTIME. This is a BATTLE. VOTE!!!

Barack & Joe- they're not there until Obama has his hand on the Bible in January. VOTE!

[905Grape]

Yes, it's a battle to the finish. Vote,my fellow citizens, vote. The situation in Iraq is looking explosive with the Shia factions urging a "no" on continuing US forces there. US Heath care is mess. The world economy is on the ropes. The energy crunch is lurking around the next bend and will not go away for our children even if gas is 50 cents less per gallon now than 2 months ago. We need a president with a calm demeanor and a quick mind who looks you in the eye when he speaks to you. No snickering, no below the belt punches about ficticious past associations, and no more lies period. Enough! My ancestors fought King George in 1776 to earn our freedom from despots. My ancestors fought in the Army of the Republic to preserve the Union and abolish slavery. My father was in the Navy in WWII to defeat facism. Vote to honor them. Vote. We owe it to ones who have gone before us and have given us so much. Their spirits are surely cheering for Barack Obama. VOTE!

[soupson52]

Beautiful post.

[mercuryguy]

Like one of my fellow posters said earlier, I'm gonna reiterate, I wish I can escape out of this planet and come back after the day of the election for an Obama's victory!!

[HHarvey]

I'll follow you.

[heartlandjim]

Every single democrat must vote. Your vote will make THE DIFFERENCE. The Republicans will try anything to keep us away from the polls Nov. 4th. Vote early and take someone to vote! Vote!! Vote!!! Vote!!!!

[sisililip]

-and don't forget Election Protection : call 1 800-866-OUR-VOTE if you have any problems at the polls. You can report problems here, get free legal advice, find your polling place, ETC...

[phoebie]

An election can change direction like my border collie chasing a squirrel. We cannot become complacent if you think Obama has a lock on the presidency. We thought that Gore had it in 2000 (and he really did), polls indicated that Kerry was going to win in 2004 and now the trends are telling us Obama will win too. Do not underestimate McCain as an opponent. Talk to your friends, neighbors and relatives. Get them to the polls. Ignore bad weather. Your one vote, your efforts DO count. This election is going to determine whether we become a strong, energy independent, hopeful nation again or continue to slug along in our gas guzzling SUVs sending our money and sellling our souls for a bit of oil.
Amen, alleluiah, GET OUT THERE!

[DaOne]

it will end up nationally as 52-48 but EV-wise it will be O 328 to Mc 210...........that's it, that's all.

[Saxton]

I think McCain will get a boost tomorrow when Powell endorses McCain for president and tries to defend McCains views on "winning" the war in Iraq. Wtih 2 weeks to go, Powell's endorsement will get a lot of positive air play in the news and help swing undecideds and pull the conversation back to what is preceived McCain's strength, national security. I hope Obama has a plan B and can quickly counteract with someone who can top Powell and outdo McCain's "October" surprise.

Just my thoughts, I welcome anyone to talk me down.

[ptarantino]

The Republicans are going to pull out EVERY trick possible, but McCain lost this election by nominating Sara.

Nobody feels like she is up for the job.

[SShaw490]

If you look at RealClearPolitics' polling averages, Obama has a 49.7 average against McCain's 43.1 in the two-man horse race. But if you include Barr and Nader, Obama has 49.8 against McCain's 40.3 with 3.8 choosing Barr or Nader. In other words, most of the third party protest vote seems to be coming out of McCain's hide. That would imply that, rather than McCain being about 6.5 back, he's really about 9.5 back. Couple that with the fact that McCain is winning some states by absurd margins - which means that in some sections of the country, people ACTUALLY BELIEVE the baloney about Obama being a Muslim Terrorist - and the result is that McCain's support is poorly distributed. With that being the case, with Obama's support being better-distributed and better in terms of the electoral map - McCain would actually have to poll much better than Obama to win.

So, basically, McCain has to make up 9+ points in 2 weeks. Not gonna happen.

[supportobama]

A must read article about McCain from Rolling Stone:

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain?action=rate#rate

Hope it gets more coverage, because it's shocking in many ways.

[ChaiKat]

That's an excellent article. While I do not dispute McCain's sacrifice to this country, I don't think he did anything any more extraordinary than all the other POW's to come out of any of these wars.

[musselmanm]

We in Greensboro North Carolina, have the convenience of early voting.
As reported in the Greensboro New and Record, the first day of early voting in our state is as follows.
100,000 votes cast in this state on the 17th.
64% registered Democrats
21% registered Republicans
15% registered Indies.
Average time needed to vot in Greensboro, 2-2.5 hours the first day.
The second day it rained all day so the time needed only averaged about 2 hours standing outside in the rain waitin to get in to cast a ballot.
I personally am feeling fine finally.
After getting mad at Senator Obama for not fighting back enough at each smear since the primaries.
I have learned that his patience to strike is so well used by he and Senator Biden must be trusted.
As a left wing liberal this is very hard for me but I am beginging to come around to our next Presidents way of doing things.
As said by John F. Kennedy, "don't get mad, get even!"

[krocklin]

Unless the country is even stupider than I think, and all the Robocalls work, we have the media to thanks for relentlessly allowing the Republicans to dominate the news cycles with bogus Republican accusations going back to the Rev. Wright.

If this election is lost for the Democrats, or if it is close, it is either because the media is in the pocket for the Republicans, or once again the Democrats just didn't hit back hard enough. The Liddy and AIP issues were raised way too late and still barely register a blip in the MSM, which the Ayres story drags on.

The Republicans had to invent all these issues - the Democrats DON"T have to invent anything, but still can't manage to seize on the right attacks that low information voters respond to.
They couldn't have had more provided to them by the lame ticket they are up against, but they just didnt exploit their many advantages.
In the future, they just can't ignore this demographic - i.e. the tabloid mentality, uninformed voters that got Bush elected.

[hypnotoad72]

Here might be a reason why:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-sirota/the-offshoring-of-hope-o_b_67924.html

[dudervision]

I saw an interesting demo on CNN the other night. They gave Obama 277 votes locked in place. Then they gave him all their undecided states: Missouri, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, even Florida and McCain still lost.

Is this race over??? NOT BY ANY MEANS!!!

Those of us to really want to win this thing need to approach it as if the numbers are flipped and we're behind. That appears to be the way the Obama campaign is running things. He emphasizes HE is the underdog here and if we let up at all we could still lose this thing. I personally don't think I'll rest easy until the electoral college meets and signs off on the election results. I think Obama may even wait until he has his new business cards delivered to the oval office!

Obama/Biden
Yes, We Can!
Yes, We MUST!!