Expect McCain to Gain Ground These Final Weeks

As we head into the home stretch, it is going to be important for those analyzing the election not to confuse McCain gaining a few points with him once again having the opportunity to win the election.

The Pollster.com national polling average this morning is 50 Obama, 43 McCain. Where will the movement be in these final three weeks? If the election ends up 4-6 points for Obama, this means we end up 52-48, 53-47, or something like that. My sense now is that McCain is likely to gain 4-5 points in this these final few weeks and return to a respectable level for a credible GOP candidate. Part of what may drive this movement in the next few weeks is McCain bouncing back up from his current below-the-floor position. I mean 43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there.

McCain's gains these coming weeks will be because he had been so dramatically underperforming since his successful convention. His erratic performance in the debates, his very public confusion during that first week of the financial crisis, the cratering of Sarah Palin, have all combined to leave him several points below where he should be at this point. In these next few weeks he will in all likelihood regain ground he should have been occupying all along but lost due to his disappointing campaign. So in many ways, McCain's likely uptick is more a sign of his current weakness than any newfound strength.

Getting back up to 46, 47, 48 is not the same as winning. My guess is there will be a lot of confusion about this in the chattering classes in the next few weeks.

Looking at the Kos am roundup, what we are seeing is a slight uptick in the McCain number with no decline in the Obama number. The real trend line to watch now is Obama's -- if he holds at 49,50,51 -- he will win. If he starts dropping below that, we may have a race on our hands.

I've always believed the main issue in the general election was whether Obama could give enough people enough comfort about him and his views to take the ground the American people were ready to give him. The debates, his strong performance during the financial crisis, a series of direct-to-camera ads have done a lot to give people more comfort about this new kid with a funny name whom we all have just gotten to know. My sense now is that the Obama campaign's positive TV tracks must stay relentlessly direct-to-camera, and they would be wise to replicate in some form the three direct-to-camera ads about our economic future and the struggle of everyday people run during the financial crisis (similar to the great two-minute close he made in Iowa) as the main way they close in the home stretch.

I have also always believed that Obama's final 2-3 points would come late, at the very end, as they often do for a challenger against a better known candidate. Which means we could see some kind of a McCain surge now with Obama closing it out in the final week or so -- if he performs well.

Or not....

It is hard to believe we are at the end of this historic campaign. But we are, and like all campaigns, the final 18 days is at least one political lifetime left to go.

Crossposted at the NDN Blog.

Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729

Comments

[lifeisart]

I see that all Obama supporters feel confident and that's not entirely good--- this is the time for us to dispel the myths coming from the McCain campaign, clearly explain why Obama is the right choice for Americans right now, and most of all make certain that everyone gets out there and tells people to vote or stand with signs that scream: VOTE!!!! Vote Early if you can.

Did anyone watch CNN this morning? I heard that Joe the plumber may be travelinbg with McCain!! Don't think that this new injection of common man "Joe the Plumber" touring with him can't snatch more votes away than we could believe possible..­.all of us have to get really busy showing our dedication to Obama and making sure everyone goes out to vote!!!!

[Whinger]

That's predictable, and it will also be exaggerated by the usual sources!

[prcleburne]

Thanks. I feel better. I was uncomfortable with McCain's recent uptick. You have done a great job putting it into context.

[davidhilton]

i didnt read thru ur whole article but it seems ur just quoting poles - and everyone knows from the last 2 elections that either the poles r completely false or the gop/rnc just steals the presidential elections. america truly is divided isnt it? we already had one civil war and i dont trust the powers that be - to start another one. good luck i hope obama can pull this off. the world needs a leader like him.

[dutch163]

I hope he does not gain ground, epecially after his lying smear campaign
against Obama
see this on Cindy McCain...n­ot First Lady material
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/18/us/politics/18cindy.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th

[jonathanu]

I hope you are right. If McCain wins, America loses.

Obama may have to address the ACORN issue. ACORN offices are receiving threats and being vandalized. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/54360.html
Someone needs to call McCain out for sicking his goons on ACORN, and point out the weakness of the allegations against that group.

[PatrickforO]

One other thing to think about. Palin's husband couldn't even get a security clearance should she be elected. The guy's been advocating Alaska seceeding from the union. How the hell did McCain pick her in the first place? It's fortunate for us Obama supporters, but we'd better come to the polls in droves, because the other alternative is truly scary.

[pessimist]

It's not hard to believe that McCain the President wouldn't be as incompetent, stumbling, policy impulsive, and blithely stupid as the McCain the Candidate. But I would never, ever misunderestimate the abject ignorance of the Undecideds or the gunsandjesus stupidity of the Republican base to pull this off. Obama can still lose because we'd be real fools to believe that racism isn't seriously still a major player in the American public. How else could he lose? Certainly not on the merits of his campaign, ideas, or personality. No, Obama has out lasted anyone hoping he would stumble and proven at every turn his depth of character, intellectual integrity, and real capacity to govern. Obama can't lose on the merits of the case but he can still lose. That's the really sad, pathetic part, isn't it?

[McChimp]

This analysis doesn't consider huge turnout and Obama's successful ground game, and is wishful thinking at best.

This is all based on the old system of politics and campaigning, a system that Senator Obama has come out against and is now reforming.

Looking at the electoral map, Senator Obama is in good shape to win the election - at 264 EVs, he is closer to winning the Presidency than Senator McCain is.

Senator Obama has multiple options to make it to 270 - and some even exclude the typical so called swing states Florida and Ohio, even though Obama is not counting or writing them off.

Senator Obama can afford to stay competitive, while Senator McCain is now pulling out of Democratic states he'd hope to swing his way and now playing defense in states that Bush won and should be Republican gimmies.

I agree that we can't afford to be complacent and we all must show up and vote, but every day the electoral map looks narrower and narrower for Senator McCain, I feel that by election day, he'll be playing defense in his home state...

[Dragonblaster]

LESS THAN 3 WEEKS!!!

The Republicans have been resting for this moment.

Time to step it up everybody!!!

IT'S NOT DONE YET!!!

Beginning Monday the race to the election begins.

We know the tactics. We are all in this together.

PUT THE GLOVES ON
WE CAN'T STOP UNTIL NOV. 5th!!!

[PatrickforO]

An interesting take on the situation. The question is whether McCain is a credible candidate. He is not - not with Palin on the ticket. Someone like Crist? Then look out. But not Palin. I've watched too many of my friends slowly come around to Obama after McCain's antics. My personal belief is it will be a landslide for Obama.

[Dragonblaster]

Repeat on all Drudge comment links

REMEMBER WHAT REPUBLICANS
HAVE DONE IN THE
LAST 8 YEARS!!!

Katrina, four dollar gas, a trillion dollar war, rising unemployment, deregulated housing market, global warming, 9-11, $700 Billion dollar bail out ON THEIR WATCH…no more.

[Dragonblaster]

LESS THAN 3 WEEKS!!!

The Republicans have been resting for this moment.

Time to step it up everybody!!!

IT'S NOT DONE YET!!!

Beginning Monday the race to the election begins.

We know the tactics. We are all in this together.

PUT THE GLOVES ON
WE CAN'T STOP UNTIL NOV. 5th!!!

[rich misty]

http://election.princeton.edu/

Dr. Wang is correct again, as usual:

As of October 17, 8:00PM EDT: Obama: 367 McCain: 171 Meta-margin: Obama +6.6%

Since the noon update Obama is picked up 3 EVs and his Meta-margin has moved up from +6.4%

The bias here is the pundits pretending that either McCain or Palin are qualified candidates­... Which they are not. I saw an online poll this morning (I know I know) ... But it was striking..­. The poll was on Forbes and 60% of the respondants said John McCain was not qualified for office.

When people get that set, they are not going to change their minds.

Ok, I searched and found the poll:

http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/10/15/debate-mccain-obama-oped-cx_fs_1016debatepoll.html

5. After watching the debate, do you think John McCain is qualified to be president?

Total Votes: 10,340
Yes - 41% (4,256)
No - 59% (6,084)

Now, you may say "online poll, not scientific, means nothing" - I say when I started seeing online poll numbers like this for Bush, I knew the Bush adminstration had dug a hole from which they could never climb out.

McCain is a busy bee with a shovel it seems.

[LatinLion]

Terrorism : the use of violence and threats to intimidate or coerce, esp. for political purposes.