Is McCain Playing to Win?

Reviewing DemFromCT's morning poll roundup, we see some evidence of one scenario we have been anticipating in my posts of recent weeks: that McCain is in the process of reclaiming ground he should have occupied for some time, ground that he had given up with his dismal performance these last few months. While McCain has gained a point or two in many national polls these last few days (remaining at a still anemic 43-45 percent), Obama is not showing any sign of slippage. And as we wrote the other day, the only way this race becomes competitive now is for both McCain to gain and Obama to begin losing ground.

One point very much worth considering is something DemFromCT looks at this morning, which is where McCain's gains are coming from. There is a very real chance he could pick up national points by gaining ground in non-competitive Southern states with wavering base Republican voters. And while those gains will give him some national points, they will in no way affect the current dynamic of the race, which is why it is possible to see Arizona coming into play and McCain picking up a point or two on the same day. The national poll numbers are not evenly distributed across this vast and complicated country.

So, today, one week out, Obama's lead looks solid and unaltered. And while McCain's slight uptick does not look like it will affect the outcome of the Presidential, it could impact close races down ballot, particularly in more conservative districts and states. It has been my sense for some time now that the McCain strategy has been focusing on bringing wavering base voters home, hence Baby Killer! Socialist! Communist! Terrorist! Muslim! Liberal! - all messages seemingly more attuned to the GOP base than traditional undecided voters in battleground states. It almost seems as if what the McCain camp decided a few weeks ago was to give up getting to 50 percent and winning the election, and rather has been focusing on turning out its base, settling for a 45-47 percent showing, saving some folks down ballot, particularly in the Senate and House and preventing a big-time realigning election.

Cross-posted on the NDN blog.

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Comments

[zanzig]

As other blgs have indicated, forcing the game to a very tight finish (45-47) could also pave the way for any number of "voter fraud" challenges and recounts. As a precursor to stealing the election of course.

[DoTheMath]

That may be the campaign's secret strategy, but I bet McCain hasn't thrown in the towel. He's a seat-of-his-pants, long-shot loving, impulsive gambler. So if he can think of another wild gimmick (like choosing Palin or suspending his campaign) he will go for it and to h.e.l.l with the party. After all, what do you think he means by "maverick?"

[popizzy]

I've heard several pundits say today that undecides will break for McCain.....does anyone think there is validity to this?

[Sumocat]

Yes, I believe the undecideds, by and large, are not very bright and will vote for the first name they see. Since M is before O in the alphabet, most will break for McCain. Hence, it is very important we pay attention to the electoral vote, which shows a win for Obama even if all the undecideds vote alphabetically.

[DoTheMath]

Not that you meant that literally, but my California absentee ballot listed Obama before McCain. : )

I agree with your real point.

It's also very important that we keep doing everything we're doing to get out the vote right up to the last minute. With all the suppression that's going on, we can't leave anything to chance. We need a margin for "error."

[jchflorida]

they're not that organized ....... they really don't know what the hell they are doing.

[NationalTreasure]

McCain/Palin and the republicans are playing to win and if they can not win they want to do everything to dehumanize and marginalize an Obama presidency.

McCain/Palin and the republicans encourage and allow the most offensive racist and hatemongers to attend their events and do not call out these people on their racism.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-feldman/mccains-panic-in-pa-more_b_138504.html

http://www.keystoneprogress.org/page/content/ksp-home/

[ProudLiberalDan]

I think he's playing to win because some Republicans are still calling on the RNC to abandon McCain and focus on saving GOP Senators only.

Obama's poll leads are encouraging. But there is still a lot of work to do over the next seven days to turn poll leads into actual cast and counted votes. Thank you to everyone who is volunteering and isn't getting complacent.

Obama is leading, but this thing isn't over until the polls close.

Please vote early if you can. It means shorter lines on election day and a vote in hand is worth two in the bush (so to speak).

[Islanders6466]

Thanks for this story...I'd like to talk to the undecideds: what are you waiting for? It's quite obvious who's for change,and who wants the same...Look, we, ALL of us in America, have 1-week left before election day - so look at, read, & check out who's running the same "smear, fear & lack of substance" campaign, then, look at who's talking about our future, the country's future, our children's future, and the sacrifices that our parents, grandparents & great grandparents have made in a positive way...
Now, with these facts in mind, which direction would you want the country to follow, and with our children & the world watching, what are you going to vote for & stand-up for? It's not hard, it wont hurt, and you'll be so glad you did it, really:)

Obama/Biden '08