Is the Race Breaking to Obama?

Diving into the morning news cloud, you can discern an emerging thread threatening to become conventional wisdom -- the election appears to be breaking toward Obama now. As the Huffington Post has reported, there is all sorts of evidence coming from the McCain camp that they see the Electoral College slipping away. Early voting numbers show significant advantages for the Democrats, even in vital swing states. After trending toward McCain a bit late last week, the national polls are now trending Obama, and surprisingly the movement is two way -- toward Barack and away from McCain.

Increasingly, we will start to hear quiet talk of realignment, blowout, rout, coattails, new political era. For if the trends continue, we are headed toward a true blowout with the top of the Democratic ticket getting its highest vote share since 1964, Democrats having more ideological control of Washington since the mid 1960s and Democrats having the makings of a new very 21st century majority coalition they could ride for the next 30-40 years of politics.

Their opposition, the conservatives and Republicans, have become intellectually exhausted, politically discredited and temperamentally reactionary and angry. This is a movement and party that prospered in the 20th century but now seems lost, adrift and resistant to the new politics of the 21st. In these last few weeks in particular, the GOP looks like a party that could be out of power for a very long time.

For those on the American center-left, these are heady political times. But they are also sober and serious times, as the Democrats begin to confront the enormity of the governing challenges facing the next Congress and President.

As is custom now, DemFromCT has an excellent analysis on all these new polling trends this morning over at Daily Kos.

Crossposted at the NDN Blog.

Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729

Comments

[SangZe]

If I understand the Princeton Election Consortium correctly, Obama is rapidly losing ground. Yesterday it declared that he had 313 "safe" electoral votes, today only 291. That is a dramatic and significant drop that tells us the election is far from won by Obama.

[flanardiente]

The boss hog in the Associated Press sty is Ron Fournier, whose Republican bias is well-documented and whose affinity for John McCain is infamous. He's a Republican apparatchik who has tainted AP with his partisanship. Another downer, I know, the AP, another once-honored casualty of the Republican assault on the First Amendment, another incident of the once-independent media being turned into another propaganda organ by way of consolidating ownership in the hands of three or four billionaires, all of whom hang out together and share the same political ideal. You can't trust anything the AP says now, they're the new Pravda. You know, I'm old and I've seen a lot and sometimes I think some of the posts here are almost needlessly paranoid--and then I run into a slick little fixer like Ron Fournier and I have to wonder, what institution out there haven't they got around to fouling? Stick to
Zogby and Gallup.

[dlinguist]

The end of an era.. and godspeed. The Rovian Neocon revolution has finally run out of steam. Oh, there will be a residual aftertaste for years to come, as the ever more marginalized adherents of the tactics of fear and discord enjoin in their collective death rattle. Gone will be the days of Right Wing Princenton­/Yale/Harv­ard grads calling Left Wing Princenton­/Yale/Harv­ard grads elitists. Gone will be Swift Boat tactics based on unsubstantiated blather thrown at public servants in the hopes that innuendo alone will defame them.

Perhaps soon the left and the right will find that they are like two arms on the same body and that neither is against the body itself. And as pawns like Palin, Bachmann and Hayes puzzle as to why the very things they speak of freely with the likeminded, behind closed doors, are running into an ever increasing buzzsaw of ever decreasing acceptance, Karl Rove, the Chess Master himself, has lost the match. Check Mate.

[ThePeacemakers]

"Republicans, have become intellectually exhausted, politically discredited and temperamentally reactionary and angry."

That's what was said about "progressives" when "the 60s" was over.

[jeanrenoir]

Well, it was TRUE then, wasn't it? The "progressives" were in the political wilderness for FORTY years, count 'em--from '68 to now. Let's hope the Republicans are as neutered for the next forty as the progressives have been for the last forty. The progressives made incredibly stupid political errors in the Sixties which drove the white working class into the arms of the Republicans and Limbaugh. Obama is creating a new majority in America, including a small but significant slice of former Reagan Dems, and this majority, if Obama succeeds in office--and there will be nothing to stop him with a Dem majority in both houses of Congress--should last for decades into the future. I can hardly wait for the Republicans to drive the neocons into the sea, since all the Republicans who are not neocons see clearly enough how the idiotic neocon war in Iraq destroyed the Bush presidency and the party itself.

[Downing]

The pendulum has finally made a full swing the other way. The radio blowhards don't even know what Liberal means. They are still fighting the radical left of the sixties, using those tactics of ridicule.
The democratic party stretched itself too far in 1968, it fragmented and imploded.
It has finally happened to the GOP. The factions each had a candidate; McCain for the hawks, Huckabee for the fundies, and Romney for the bankers. They had no affable doofus like Reagan or W to hold it together, thank God.
Hmm, 40 years in the wilderness has a familiar ring..

[jusion]

Quote of the day:
ABC reporter Jack Tapper on "Good Morning America",
"...If there's one thing the American people like doing, it's having the media say that this is all over, that one guy's going to win, especially a Democrat. And then they say, well, not so fast. Not so fast, media. We have a say on this on Election Day."

[rustyaustin]

Does anyone watch the networks any more? I haven't seen the network news in years, and most everyone I know gets all their news from the internet. Network ratings are going down down down more and faster every year. By 2012 there will be almost no one left unless they change the way they do business, and in a hurry. I wouldn't put too much stock into this Jake Tapper character, whoever he is...

[Rescisco]

"Republicans, have become intellectually exhausted, politically discredited and temperamentally reactionary and angry."

Yup. These folks are poor losers (and classless winners). What seemed to be only arrogance and indifference in victory becomes anger and hate in defeat. That is the extent of it. Its who they are.

[Whinger]

Honest Joe The Republican died long years ago, the days of fooling all the people all of the time have gone forever, and now, when tempers cool, the Republican party will have to take a long hard analytical look at what it has evolved into!

Low road politics have rejected by masses of people, a rejection that will continue and grow!
Americans have learned to think for themselves and not be swayed by lies or fearmongering.
Preaching division and hatred worked for Hitler, what has happened to make Republicans actively and willingly embrace the tactics of extremism?

[TheIndependenceParty]

Seeing Boehner's face in grim disbelief about the state of his party and the coming Congress is like seeing the Schoolyard Bully wet his pants after getting whipped by the new skinny kid from Hawaii.

The catastrophic devolution of America into a bankrupt third world banana republic at the hands of Bush and Cheney is a very high price for America to pay, simply for the right to have her People regain control of government from her Corporations. That is, unfortunately the case as it seems.

We need to remain vigilent to and through the election to assure that Bush and the Reich do not steal the vote, nor subvert the country more than they already have between the election and the inauguration. This is a very tenuous time.

Only then, in the third week of January, can we begin to rebuild America, or perhaps to build her fairly for the first time, so that all Americans can receive the fruits of their labor, and not a pampered few.

[Mildmannered]

Today's AP and IBD/TIPP polls show essentially an even race, unfortunately.

[Fabienne]

While the other polls are showing Obama's lead is widening. Ap polls 40% evangelicals, who are NOT 40% of the voters, but rather 23%, so the polls begin by being skewed.

[JRsNana]

This poll is totally skewed and has been discredited across the board.

[Ged2012]

Most of those polled were evangelicals.

Don't believe it.

[rbrinega]

Nate Silver skewers IBD/TIPP:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/whats-wrong-with-this-picture-aka-nate.html
FTA:
But the basic takeaway is this: you should absolutely not assume that just because someone has published a poll, they have any particular idea what they're doing. Pollsters should be treated as guilty until proven otherwise.

But it is no time for Obama supporters to slack off!!!! Get out there and volunteer!

[emcd]

In the last 2 days, 2 new polls have been release showing the race has narrowed to only a 1% advantage for Obama: AP poll and GWU/Battleground.

This is following the same gut wrenching pattern as past elections, getting closer as election day approaches and coming within the margin where even modest voter suppression tactics on the part of the Rethuglicans can throw the results!

I have a bad, bad feeling.

[justoverit333]

You're scaring me. I won't let
my guard down. I don't trust
the Repubs and voter fraud.

[emcd]

Good! Be scared, AND go vote! Vote early if you can to "bank" votes and cut down on the lines that could leave people waiting when the polls close, or when they "run out of" paper ballots.

Take all your fellow Obama voters to vote with you! Take the day off work if you can and take people to the polls.

This is a very serious moment for the future of this country as a free democracy. Don't underestimate their ability to steal this election.

[dlinguist]

You're better off looking at composite polls, which substantially reduce the margin of error and filter out poll-specific biases:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

Also, try to defocus from results citing the popular vote. Ultimately, it is electoral votes that matter, so aside from the Bill O'Reilly electoral map, which I find hilarious, try checking those out both on 538 and other sites like Politico, CNN, etc.

And take a breath

[Mdazes]

Is the race breaking for Obama? Not according to the AP Poll in the news today. Obama got to get back on his economic policy like Hillary said Jobs Jobs Jobs and stop letting McShame dominate the subject with this who wont raise taxes who will raise taxes talk and Joe the Plumber..

[justoverit333]

Check out the link in the article.
As of today and that particular poll,
it has Obama 51 McCain 41.

[NationalTreasure]

Every day the main stream media has done nothing but act as the mouthpiece for the McCain/Palin campaign and does nothing but run the McCain/Palin and republican party talking points for news topics.

McCain dominates the media because the main stream media is biased against Sen. Obama and African-Americans.

McCain will win this election because the main stream media is his base.

[WmC]

Two good places to go for watching long term and overall trends are:

1) http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ and

2) http://www.intrade.com/

Both of them should ease your mind somewhat.

[alenaspoppa]

The poll is fatally flawed and patently ridiculous:

http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/new-flawed-ap-poll-claims-mccain-and.html

The problem? In 2004, evangelica­ls/born-ag­ain Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible.

[mommadona]

"In these last few weeks in particular, the GOP looks like a party that could be out of power for a very long time."

But, with a fanatical and ideologica­lly-driven base.
Ignore them at our peril.

Know thy enemy.
Intimately.
Especially the 'buzzwords'.

Learn the dance, and take the lead.

[Progress08]

I keep hoping this Palin pick and all the Repubs who are displeased with the fanatical far right will help to implode the party. Eventually it may cost the Dems if one of the fragmented pieces of what's left jumps exactly in the middle and starts pulling in moderates from the dems. Of course the fanatics will eventually try to get back in bed with them and then drag them in their direction, but that took 30 40 years last time. If we're lucky we'll a good 20 to 30 years of peace and prosperity after the Republicans start scratching their heads wondering what hit them.

[Hoppy]

I just don't see where the Republicans can go with this. Their traditional moorings are smaller government and non-interference in personal decisions. Their +-30% base is all about regulation of personal decisions, every thing else is distraction. They fanatically cut taxes, but forget to decrease spending. Their central economic policy of trickle down has been a disaster, but if they abandon that, they loose corporate support. They have done a great job of circling the wagons around their base, diving the country between us and them. Its going to be really hard to decompose the molten blob of the "real America" in order to move towards the middle.

[myrddin]

I'd agree with you except for two recent polls. The AP poll and GWU/Battleground have the race tightening. Could these both be outliers?

[justoverit333]

I know. what's up with that?

[Fabienne]

If they are only two against several other more prominent polls showing Obama's gain widening, I think they could possibly be outliers.

[Dystopic]

the AP poll is flawed, and disputed.

Everu reliable poll shows Obama up by at least 10, and 14 for the Pew Poll

[SharkSteve]

Watch Gov Palin start distancing herself from McCain. The AZ senator's political career is history, but Palin's just getting started. By 2016, she could be a two term AK governor and one term AK US senator, and still in her 40's.

I don't say this as a fan of Palin's, but as a realist who recognizes that she will have eight years to iron out the wrinkles of this year's campaign.

Palin's hunger for power is stronger than her reactionary ideology. She will remake herself into whatever she has to be to gain a following.

[TheIndependenceParty]

Palin may go home to Alaska facing impeachment from her office for Troopergate and other possible infractions of ethics. Ted Stevens "friends" are rumored to have assisted Palin in renovations to her home in AK, as well.

Neo-Con Republicans are loyal to NO ONE, but themselves. They are finished with Colin Powell, and all the endorsers of Obama in their party. They are coming unhinged in a way I only hoped to live to see. Still, I will not rest until I see this election past, and Obama's Administration beginning.

Like so many Halloween movies, they seem to have nine lives and never die as a party, no matter their ignominy or shame..

[Fabienne]

Even the moderates in her own party are appalled by her. She has no chance of going anywhere except back to Alaska.

[dct1999]

Isn't she 44? In 2016 she'll be 52, still young.

She will be around for a while because conservatives love her. If she leaves politics she'll become a TV personality.

[SangZe]

Most polls are apparently quite wrong. In case no one noticed, AP reports a dead heat, and Obama went down significantly in the Yahoo daily poll. Democrats seem to be celebrating before they have a victory in hand. New reports suggest that McCain has an excellent chance of winning more than 270 electoral college votes even though Obama may win the popular vote. Maybe it's time to get used to a Senate Leader and VP named Palin and a president named McCain.

[PCRX]

LMAO!!!!!

[Foolacious]

You funny!

[escorpion]

What makes you think these two polls are right, and the multitude of others are all wrong? You're being paranoid.

[LABC]

Right...maybe you should get used to having your GOP a$$ handed you come November 4th - if you and the rest of the mavericky crowd want to cling to one poll as your hope. His ladyship at the Drudge report awaits your presense.

[Fabienne]

Except that the Vice President is NOT the leader of the Senate and it is shameful that someone running for that position doesn't know that. This poll has been totally discredited by far more effective pollsters and is one against many showing just the opposite. Dream on.