Keys to the Fall: Obama Leads, McCain Stumbles

These days, with Barack Obama's poll numbers above 50 and more than 33 million viewers watching his primetime 30-minute spot, it's hard to remember that John McCain came out of his convention ahead and with momentum and a fresh life. It really looked liked it would be a close general election, or that McCain might have a shot to pull this off. So what happened?

Their Reactions to the Financial Crisis - At moments of crisis, leaders are tested. Obama passed this test, looking steady, strong, engaged. McCain stumbled, "suspended" his campaign, changed his message, and in general, looked a little desperate and out of it. He failed this critical test of leadership, which of course, significantly undermined the entire McCain narrative of "proven, tested, ready."

The Debates - Based on post-election polls, Obama and Biden each overwhelmingly won their debates. As Robert Kaiser argues in today's Washington Post, the debates became critical for Obama, for they allowed to fill in the gaps, address the very real concerns many had about whether he was up to the job. Again, he looked in command, smart, steady, ready. McCain, on the other hand, while showing flashes of effectiveness, again came across as a slightly addled and occasionally an angry old man, struggling to keep up with his younger, smarter and more compelling opponent.

All About Sarah - It was her rise that lifted McCain, and with her collapse, came McCain's fall. I predicted in a pre-convention post that McCain would pick a vibrant, telegenic running mate to help make up for his not-so-appealing grumpy old man persona. Well he did, but man, when that teenage belly bump arrived on the scene, it became clear that the Palin vetting was, let us say, a little "mavericky." They clearly had no idea what they were getting into with her. Tina Fey then gave the nation permission to start saying what they were sensing with her, that seeing Russia from her front porch was not really adequate prep to be VP for a man unlikely to finish out his time in office. The comparison between her vacuousness and Biden's experience became a true black mark on the McCain campaign while doing a great deal to undermine his brand.

A Superior and More Modern Campaign - There can be no doubt now that the Obama campaign is the best run and most innovative Presidential campaign of the modern era, and clearly the model for a new 21st century era of post-broadcast, people-based advocacy and politics. Their commitment to this new Dean/Trippi inspired Internet model gave them the resources to overwhelm McCain these last few months on the airwaves and on the ground in the battlegrounds, and to produce a primetime video seen by an amazing 34 million viewers in the final week of the election. For more on this new political model and the emergence of what we've been calling a virtuous cycle of participation, see this recent post.

The Issues - Obama has stayed relentlessly focused on the most important issue facing Americans today - the struggle of every day people to make ends meet. McCain and his campaign have seemed weirdly preoccupied with peripheral issues, political issues - Paris Hilton, Bill Ayers, sex ed and baby killing and now Jeremiah Wright - rather than focusing on the stuff that really matters to people. These divisive, distracting ads - straight out of the Southern Strategy GOP playbook - reinforced the very things that the public has come to dislike about Republicans - their willingness to put politics above solving problems. These ads and attacks helped undermine McCain's brand, and suggested instead that McCain was just another one of "those" Republicans after all.

Finally, incredibly, McCain's economic plan has been so similar to the approach Bush took in his years in office that it has been stunning to watch. The GOP's economic strategy this decade has left the average American making less money while giving huge tax breaks to the most privileged among us. The inability of the Republicans to come to terms with this outcome of their years in control of government has been central to their dramatic fall from power. That John McCain did not understand this, and did not offer any real proposals to deal with the struggle of every day people, is what allowed Obama to successfully tie him to President Bush and his failed Presidency. I think McCain never really believed that the Democrats would pull off making him a Bush clone because of his own hatred for Bush. But the ideological blindness of the modern GOP to the struggle of every day people is what drove the GOP from office in 2006, and will likely be the central cause of their defeat once again in 2008.

In early September, John McCain led the race. In the weeks that followed, both candidates were given a series of tests. Clearly, the American people believe Senator Obama passed his tests. Senator McCain, on the other hand, did not. And it was this disappointment with McCain that gave Obama his opening, an opening that he and his focused, disciplined campaign successfully exploited.

7:30 am Update - DemFromCT's morning poll roundup shows no real change of the closing dynamic we've been describing these last few weeks - a slight uptick for McCain but Obama holding steady and retaining a commanding lead.

A version of this post is cross-posted on the NDN Blog.

Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729

Comments

[ARonHenry]

Obama should be concerned about every single winnable state. But frankly I'm getting a little tried of this Pennsylvania thread that keeps popping up everywhere. Look, Obama is going to win Pennsylvania. Let's look at 2000 and 2004. Gore won PA by 4 percent and Kerry won by 2. PA tends to be close. If Obama wins it by 5 to 8 points it's really something of a blow out by Pennsylvania's recent standards, but that's the range he's likely to be in. If you go to RealClearPolitics and look at the massive amounts of polling done in the state in October alone McCain has not had a lead in one. Even if he's making inroads this line will hold. The trend is just to powerful to be reversed. Have some faith in the Obama ground game to turn out the votes needed and in McCain's proven ablitity to mess things up. His attempt to take away PA from Obama is just another example of his blundering, mismanaged campaign. Obama is very likely to hit 353 EV's, including 21 from the great state of Pennsylvania.

[suntzu]

The McCain campaign in the past week or so has entered its most pathetic phase: his entire chance to make it to the White House now rests on the broad shoulders of Joe the Plumber. With Palin having come up such a huge cropper, salvation appeared in the form of an unlicensed plumber who owes on his taxes, who is also an expert on Middle East policy.
Now, McCain is addicted to JTP and cannot quit him. At rallies, McCain has become energized as never before, yelling out Joe's name (in one case, when Joe was not even there) before scooting off the stage.
I feel sorry for Joe for having been put in the position of having to save McCain, but also I am not sorry because he is also milking the opportunity to its utmost. So we see two people, each with their own agenda, leaning on each other to deliver them into the success they seek.
The only comparison I can come up with where a presidential candidate has sought refuge in something other than his own persona to win the election is when Nixon relied on his dog checkers to save his own political neck. As I remember it did not work.

[tuttlemsm]

Yes it did. The Checkers speech was considered a great success. It inspired Ike to embrace Nixon, saying "Dick, you're my boy." Ike-Nixon went on to a comfortable electoral victory.

Of course, Tricky Dick's dlcky tricks did not serve him in the long term.

[Pacojam]

The country is more intelligent than it was in the past. So many people were tricked by Bush -- the Rovian tactics that got him elected -- that they have smartened-up. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

The internet, as evidenced by this forum, has changed the game as well. It serves to makes us more intelligent and reject the nonsensical lies that the Roves are attempting to push over on us. It makes us less pushovers.

McCain miscalculated the intelligence of the american people. He stuck to his religiously-held belief that tricking the people, a la Rove, was the way to the holy grail - his becoming POTUS. Another peice of poor judgement by McCain.

[billhodges]

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

[dudervision]

Though the race is tightening and those of use who are Obama supporters MUST KEEP IT UP, Nate Silver over at fivethirty­eight.com, a poll expert who has shown an amazing understanding of how to interpret poll numbers (which is what it's all about with polls), says the following about giving too much weight to the Zogby poll:

"Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Joe the Plumber better enjoy his fifteen minutes of fame.

[Gasparilla]

Joe could get his license now, and he could pay his back taxes too. But he's too busy running around like he actually has a valid opinion.

[generationyes]

Well, can't blame you for grasping at straws. But won't that make for a hell of a hangover on Wednesday morning?

[lemonyashes]

Wednesday-­Republican Trolls Buh Bye

[TheBrizz]

NASCAR voters? Go to a race and look around at all the confederate flags on display, and tell me how many of those people were ever going to vote for a black man, no matter who he was running against.

Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States. Get over it.

[SatanicPanic]

Oh groan. It's funny you mention that it was a ONE DAY poll, i.e. not representative.

[Woodguy]

I agree with your analysis. There is one point in particular that I have been thinking about for a few months now, and that has to do with Obama running a more modern campaign. Perhaps this is one of Obama's greatest strengths. He understands the Internet and other forms of technology, while John McCain, by his own admission, has staffers do that 'Net thing for him. Obama has a sense of how our world is interconnected through the use of technology, whereas McCain is missing the "big picture". Obama sees how global financial markets interact in a symbiotic dance, how social networks can bring the world together to interact and share ideas like never before, and how the lines of communication can be shortened and simplified through direct interaction with the individual. Obama realizes that the use of technology, and the Internet in particular, is a way to connect with people in a true populistic, grassroots fashion. He commented yesterday about how much he learned that technology could help connect the people with their government (Rachel Maddow's interview), which leaves me hoping we see improvements in how the government interacts with its citizens. The McCain camp failed to realize just how powerful a tool technology can be, and as a result, lost contact with the world at large.

[Samalabear]

Well, Al Gore didn't invent the internet but he certainly understood its potential for all things. I wonder how many Republicans in general understand the power of technology -- just saying.

[schmuckwithearlaps]

What we are seeing today is the race getting closer, but slowly. If the election were held in two weeks McCain would win. Obama has peaked in popularity and McCain and Palin have peaked in unpopularity, while Biden is a non-issue. The results are shaping up to be a nearly tied popular vote and Obama holding 280+ electoral votes. That may not be a popular analysis on liberal web sites, but the people who are predicting this result seem to me to have the most insight into our current national state of mind.

[super]

Thank you for your creative fairy tale!

[blondecuban]

Please tell everyone you know that the lines are going to be long on election day. The polls may "close" at 7 PM, but that means that anyone in line at 7 has to be given the opportunity to vote -- even if it means that they don't get to do so until 10 PM. Also, talk to an Obama poll monitor volunteer or phone the Obama office in your state 1(877) Obama __ (your state's initials) if anyone wants you to do a provisional ballot. Avoid doing this kind of ballot if you can, since 1/2 of them don't get counted.

[JaneK13]

Here's a news flash from Florida...Want to know why McCain all of a sudden surged in the sunshine state? The old folks heard about the Obama/Pelosi/Reid plan to nationalize private & union pension funds and individual 401k's & IRA's. The $$$ would go into to social security trust fund to be administered by the federal govt to ensure that all senior citizens get their fair share... Workers and retirees alike don't want to spread the wealth, even tho they will be told that the gov't will buy-out their 401k's at aug08 market value. We are very,very concerned. Should we cash in what's left of our 401k and stash it somewhere??

[GuyRC]

Yes you should cash in your 401K immediately. Then load it in your truck and move to Beverly.

[L double E]

huh, where did this "plan" come from? Is that like George's plan to nationalize the banking industry so his Wall Street friends can continue to subsidize the RNC (sounds like welfare to me)

[Heartlight3]

I have been following the campaigns pretty closely, and I have never heard Obama or Pelosi or Reid put forth any such plan. I have, however heard some Republicans say that Obama, Pelosi and Reid have said that. I have not noticed that the Republican party is a reliable source for Democratic policy. My experience has been that the Republicans say what they would like you to think Democratic policy is, but it is usually a long way from accurate. I will not assume that this is true unless I hear it said by Barack Obama himself.

[OutragedMom]

It's garbage. Republican lies.

[tedeger]

The PA problem is, as is the case in many states, crooked, inaccurate, and hacked voting machines. With a Democratic landslide, I hope HAVA is revisited and the machines totally outlawed, with a return to hand-marked paper ballots. ONLY a recountable trail will restore Americans' confidence in the system.

[Mildmannered]

The two main factors IMHO

(1) When the financial crisis was announced McCain ran around like a chicken with his head cut off (Obama was intelligent, cool, calm and collected)

(2) Palin versus Biden -- do I need to explain this.

[billbb]

"(2) Palin versus Biden -- do I need to explain this."

Not to anyone with more than three functioning brain cells. McCain would have been far better off if she had just stopped. She reminds me of the old adage that a clock that is stopped will still be right twice a day, but one that loses 1/2 sec per day is only right once in ten years.

It would really be a delicious irony if Joe the Plumber was the only one for whom the campaign was a success!

[MadDog]

Great summary of McCain's downfall. Maybe the GOP can incorporate that into the list of things to NOT do for the next time they'll have a chance, which will be 2016. The GOP ticket won't have a chance in 2012, especially when today it looks like it would be Palin and Joe the Plumber. What a total joke.

[onlyThis]

Vote. Volunteer. Talk to your family, neighbors and co-workers, get them to vote early if possible or at least vote. Keep up the effort until Nov. 5th!

[koulflo]

McCain's stumble and Obama going for the kill in Arizona. Still, Obama has concerns about Pennsylvania.
see
http://koulflo.wordpress.com/2008/10/31/4-days-out-confidence-and-caution/