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The Future of the War on Terror

Posted: 10/14/08 05:49 PM ET

Sir Lawrence Freedman, author of "A Choice of Enemies: America Confronts the Middle East"and professor of war studies and vice-principal at King's College London, responded to questions about where the once-tops-on-the-issues-list War on Terror stands with the presidential debates coming to a close and the economic situation taking the 'important issues" spotlight lately. Professor Freedman will also be headlining a set of panel debates on October 15, 16 and 20 in New York, Boston and Washington D.C., respectively. See this article for details on attending.

1. Since all eyes have been on the global economy recently, what is your position on the impact the financial crisis will have on the future of the War on Terror?

The most obvious impact of the current crisis is that the United States has now not only added economic overstretch to military overstretch but there is probably political overstretch as well. There is only so much a government can cope with at any one time, never mind at such a transitional process as this. By and large this is a time when there is a need to calm the international environment rather than added extra excitement, so this makes it an unlikely time for the US to take any major initiatives, such as an air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. By the same token, of course, this creates temptations for those who might wish to harm America, to catch it while it is distracted. The main problem is that the position in what has always been the main arena in this particular struggle - the fight against the Taliban and associates in Afghanistan and Pakistan - is currently at an extremely difficult phase and is not getting the high-level attention it needs.

2. Will finding Osama bin Laden be the main goal of the War on Terror with a new U.S. commander in chief? How will this focus change, if at all?

In a way Osama bin Laden is yesterday's man and it is probably best to be derisive rather than continue to build him as Enemy Number One. Al Qaeda's ability to mount a global campaign remains limited, though they might still be able to sponsor the occasional outrage. The problem is now the broader Islamist movement of which al Qaeda is just one part. That is far stronger politically than it was seven years ago. This presents itself in a variety of ways in different countries and so will require a diverse set of political responses. I would suspect that whoever is the commander-in-chief is going to have to put their main effort into stabilizing south Asia as much as the Middle East, and that political and economic actions are going to be as important as the military.

3. What is your forecast for the plan of action in the War on Terror with each candidate, Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain?

One of the major issues dividing the candidates in the election campaign has been the relative balance between the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. Senator Obama argues, with some justice, that Iraq was a dangerous diversion from Afghanistan which must be the main priority. Senator McCain argues that both could be done and criticizes Obama for not supporting the 'surge' which, as part of a number of developments, has helped to stabilize Iraq. Both arguments are historical in nature and not of much help in working out what to do now. In practice the improved situation in Iraq should allow a diversion of military effort to Afghanistan whoever is in charge. The trouble is that the instability has now spread to Pakistan. This has also become an issue in the campaign, except this time Obama appears to be taking the more hawkish stance by arguing for the right of 'hot pursuit' from Afghanistan into Pakistan - although McCain's objection appears to be mainly talking about the prospect rather than doing it. Certainly regular air strikes that have killed civilians as well as militants have done little for American popularity in both countries, while both the Afghan and Pakistan forces are struggling in their own campaigns against radical Islamist movements. In practice this means that while the US will not wish to relax its military stance the emphasis may well start to shift to finding elements within the Taliban, which is no more a coherent force than any other political formation in the region, with whom it is possible to negotiate. The outcome is hardly going to be satisfactory but the main effort must be to contain the impact of local radicalism.

4. Finally, it seems the interest of the American people, and globally, shifts to whatever the most pressing matter is at that moment. If the economy is failing, the major issue is the economy. If the wars are being lost or terrorist attacks are rampant, that is the major issue. Short of a terrorist attack, what is your assessment of when and how the War on Terror will be the most important issue in the face of other issues taking precedence, like the economy?

The current financial crisis and imminent recession will transform all aspects of international politics. Governments will become fragile and some will fall, resources will be tight and nerves frayed. There will be many consequences, some small and others larger, that will interact with each other, so the repercussions will develop and move in unexpected directions. For example it is not only the big economies of the west that will be shaken, and the effects for them may be less profound than elsewhere, for the west probably has a larger capacity to recover. So while Iran and Russia might gloat over American weakness, they too are suffering from the economic gloom, along with the reversal of the upward movement of oil prices. The danger in this situation is that whole countries become vulnerable as people are unable to meet their basic needs and states subsidies have to be curtailed. This puts a number of governments - both pro- and anti- West at risk and creates opportunities for populist movements. The most dangerous scenarios therefore concern countries of some strategic importance imploding (Pakistan comes to mind once again - Egypt is another possibility) and NATO countries, for the moment at least, lacking the focus and capacity to respond.

 
Sir Lawrence Freedman, author of "A Choice of Enemies: America Confronts the Middle East"and professor of war studies and vice-principal at King's College London, responded to questions about where th...
Sir Lawrence Freedman, author of "A Choice of Enemies: America Confronts the Middle East"and professor of war studies and vice-principal at King's College London, responded to questions about where th...
 
 
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03:16 PM on 10/15/2008
It's time for "policework on terror". "War on terror" is not only silly but enormously counterproductuive.
09:16 AM on 10/15/2008
In my opinion, the current economic meltdown could go into a depression. Which at that time we could have our hands full dealing with a well armed society of angry people we have here in the US. I am not sure what these people could be labelled as but it will be an angry bunch of people. If indeed a depression happens and our economic power is greatly reduced it will naturally diminish our military power. After all, if we have a weak economy at home there is no real reason for others to hate us other than for some religious belief systems based on some mythical books from mythical gods. It does seem strange that a shift of our life styles to a level more closely matching the overall world that we have been taking our ideals to with military solutions could very well be the shift that essentially negates the motivation of people to hate us. Obviously; if we merely have to deal with a recession, then I believe the magic of the economic cycles will swing us back to a economic power to be envied. And hate will keep on while we get back to our lifestyles of consumption that the planet does not really have enough of resources left to fill the demand. In this current situation, we do have a politically driven economic solution. Ultimately, it does seem that we have to socialize for now in order to get back our capitalistic society..
05:14 AM on 10/15/2008
Somebody much better to read is John Gray, the LSE prof of European Thought.

his short book

Qaeda and What it Means to be Modern (2003). ISBN 1565848055

and his more recent

Black Mass: Apocalyptic Religion and the Death of Utopia (2007). ISBN 0713999152.

are both excellent reads.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_N._Gray
02:43 AM on 10/15/2008
Mr. Freedman seems well embedded in the current political establishment. He only addresses the symptoms but not the underlying cause. "War on terror" seems just as successful as the "war on drugs" or the 1930 prohibition.
Ever asked the question why the US has invoked so much hatred or while being a victim of terror succeeded over the last 8 years in losing what moral standing the US still had?
The domestic financial terrorist facilitated by neocon market fundamentalists nearly succeeded in bringing down the world financial system. Those same neocon market fundamentalist by letting Lehman fail even exacerbated this crises and now only after being forced by Europe's example are doing late not enough yet. That will have consequences for the US in terms of power, position within the international community and influence.
Recently general Petreaus (in an implicit endorsement of Obama) emphasized that you have to sit down and talk with your enemy even if he had blood of ours still on his hands. Though Freedman seems to echo that he still focuses of the fight against the Taliban.
In the end the current financial crises will probably cost so much that the US will have to scale down its military involvement all over the world. The US will have to be much more selective and will only be involved if critical interests are at stake.
02:24 AM on 10/15/2008
Why there is no mention of Oil or the Isreal/Palestine issues as driving forces behind the War on Terror? Is Freeman protecting the interests of AlPAC?
Berettasskeeter
For what we are about to receive, may we be truly
03:31 AM on 10/15/2008
There was no Palestine, as a country. There was only a general region known as Palestine, which included what is now Israel, Palestine, parts of Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.
But, as Islam began to terrorize the world in the 7th Century, how do you figure Israel/Palestine has much to do with it?
Semper fi
10:21 AM on 10/15/2008
And there was no Israel as a country either... what is your point?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Brokenduck
The Loyal Opposition.
09:26 AM on 10/15/2008
Great point. Any discussion of this fraudulent "war on terrorism" should include the issue of Israel and Palestine. Specifically, We should put an end to our propping up the world's largest military welfare state (Israel) and the corrupt PA. It's a complex issue which should definitely involve the international community with the United States taking a strong role as mediator.

The fact of the matter is that some kind of truth commission should be convened to sort out the history of the conflict, as well as designating Jerusalem as an international city. Balance is key and making sure that the Palestinians have a legitimate chance at having a viable state will do more than anything else in defusing the popularity of international jihadist groups.
02:21 AM on 10/15/2008
What is Freeman's views on state-sponsored terrorism coming from the US or lsraeI?
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dotmafia
boj edisni na saw 11/9
01:20 AM on 10/15/2008
What about the "War on American Terror"?

What is Sir Freeman's views on state-sponsored terrorism, especially when it is coming from the world's biggest superpower?
12:30 AM on 10/15/2008
Always look at WHOSE BOTTOM LINE has been FATTENED!
The U.S. "war on terror" ENRICHED Big Oil, corrupt and unaccountable contractors and corporations,
mercenary corporations, weapons contractors, Cheney's Halliburton Corporation and many other players in this made-up war.

The U.S. "war on terror" killed US Troops FOR PROFIT, killed a huge number of Iraqis, cost middle and working class Americans many billions.
And now, Reagonomics & "free market" CRASHED after snowballing for 28 years. Republican proven FAILURES.

No more years for corrupt Republican liars and their failure to govern!
Vote Obama-Biden '08
10:48 PM on 10/14/2008
War on Terror, War on Drugs, War on Poverty, War on ... what next? So much money wasted, and what to show for them? Sir, I think you're trying to tell us that.
10:42 PM on 10/14/2008
The war on terror is not a normal war fought by armies. Men in the field will never know who is the enemy and who isn't which places them in a very dangerous and awkward situation. It is also a huge waste of resources. A war such as this should be fought with intelligence, spy networks, and strategic strikes on known terrorist camps, not by sending in large armies to occupy and police countries that hate us being there to begin with. The citizens of these countries will never welcome us and as we kill more and more innocent people their hatred of us will only grow. If there were an occupying force in the US would we not feel the same? And the way things are going in both countries we currently occupy, we could as John McCain said sometime ago, be there for a hundred years. Beyond the arrogance and stupidity that got us into this Iraqi fiasco to begin with, a very impeachable offense, the cost in Iraqi and US lives and money has been utterly devastating. I think the only retribution Bush/Cheney will ever suffer will be taking their proper places as the worst administration in US history. They should be impeached and convicted to get their rightful due.
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08:05 PM on 10/14/2008
Here: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/

read Robert Fisk. And I do agree with him about both of our presidential candidates avoiding the "Palestinian" people as if they have the plague.
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WorkingClass
07:54 PM on 10/14/2008
The U.S. "war on terror" is a fraud and a disgrace. It is causing terrible human suffering for no reason. It must end right now.
07:23 PM on 10/14/2008
Stay out of other countries business and they won't come here and take out towers. Seems pretty clear to me, but then again, I'm not trying to conquer people. Our Empire Building is going to wreck us, just like it did Britain and Rome. To damned simple isn't it. What do you know.
Berettasskeeter
For what we are about to receive, may we be truly
03:27 AM on 10/15/2008
You know nothing of history, do you? Otherwise you would not make such foolish statements. Or, at least you would know you were lying!?
Semper fi
07:21 PM on 10/14/2008
Here's one for John McCain.

In the last debate you said you helped the Afghan Freedom Fighters who drove the Russians out of Afghanistan. Are you taking pride in helping Bin Laden and the Mujahideen?

Read About it Here
http://newsone.blackplanet.com/elections/mccain-called-bin-laden-a-freedom-fighter/
Berettasskeeter
For what we are about to receive, may we be truly
03:28 AM on 10/15/2008
How would you have done it better?
Semper fi
07:11 PM on 10/14/2008
Terror, schmerror! Any American is more apt to be killed by a drunk driver than by a terrorist. However, if taking off one's shoes in airports makes everybody feel safer, it's OK by me.

On the other hand, if terrorism is a serious problem, maybe we should stop provoking it.