FerrisValyn's Comments (86)

“Infrastructure for Saturn V no longer exists. We could rebuild it if we really needed to, but the amount of money involved would be a lot. More than NASA currently gets”

“There are countless examples where industries were created that ultimately are largely commercial, but were born via government contracts. Things like the modern Aviation industry, the railroad industry, the internet industry all had government support during their early stages, and we are very much in the early stages.

Its no different than helping the emerging renewable energy industry.

Please learn the difference between being a contractor and a service provider.

As for a great many developers involved in Ares - then they should release the DAMN REPORT. If their logic in the selection is so perfect, the ability to move us to a spacefaring society so sure, and the cost effectiveness so certain, then they should release it, so to convince everyone.

Yes, many proposals were considered, but the selection criteria has never been fully released, and IMHO, there are much more cost-effective solutions that better lend themselves to making us spacefaring.”

“And it took just as long to see benefits from other new "basic society investments" like studying the electron. Given time, we found them.

Well, we are on the verge of finally seeing payoff from human spaceflight, but we have to actually operate smartly”

“The cost of launching stuff into space is not largely related to the energy costs. In fact, if you consider the price of fuel to get to LEO, it barely accounts for a small percentage of the total costs to get anywhere. The real issue is how we operate our vehicles, not what source of energy they use. We could build a car that gets 1 mile to the gallon, has to be taken apart entirely for any sort of maintenance, and so on, but we've learned to do that economically.

Its all a question of good operations - not just technology”

“2 Hard resources
Space Based Solar Power
Asteroid minerals

soft resources (more near term)
new industries like
- zero-g manufacturing,
- space tourism
- cheap remote sensing
- space sports

Hows that for a good start?”

“What a load of umitigated crap. First, commercial is not the same thing as contractors. When a government worker buys a plane ticket to visit a field office, they aren't involving a contractor - they are involving the private sector - thats what we mean by unleashing te private sector.

As for "thats how we got Ares" - Bullshit. ESAS has never been fully and publicly released.”

“Human spaceflight isn't about getting data, or being inspirational (or at least, it shouldnt' be) - its about developing space, so that it can actually help people everywhere. Obviously there are resources that we can directly tap, such as space based solar power, or asteroid minerals (although these are probably a few years off). It also allows for the development of private markets that will help to grow the economy - industries like space tourism, zero-g manufacturing, space burials, cheap remote sensing - all of these are likely to help society, right now, and they will all benefit from human spaceflight.

But we have to do it right, with a focus on being a pathfinder for societal expansion into space.”

“Doing space development will create huge markets, open us to new resources, and will help the planet earth. Not in some distant future, but right now. Space is currently worth $251 Billion a year, the majority of that is the result of space markets, not NASA spending.

Further, look at the emerging industries related to space - tourism, zero-g manufacturing, and yes, even space based solar power - as you go further, you get more available.

And the fact that you seem to know absolutely nothing about mars makes this clearer - there is an atmosphere on Mars, and further, there are resources we can use to make it quite habitable.”

“Huh? did you read what I wrote? I am not talking about spin-off technologies (like the famed velcro). I am talking about actual resources. For example - you mentioned Japan. Well, that great big solar array they are looking at requires many of the same items that a mars trip would. You wanna go to mars, you gotta put up a lot of stuff, much like you do with space based solar power.

That said, it does have to be done with a clear mind towards space development, and utilizing space resources to help earth.

But this isn't about spin-off technology - its about industry creation, market creation, and resource utilization.”

“By being able to put that solar array in space, Japan will be able to tap large scale space resources. And yes, going to Mars will allow us to tap even more.

QED”

“Because the assembly line doesn't exist anymore for Saturn V, and the cost for a Saturn V was quite prohibative.”

“Except that space development can help us deal with some of those problem. For example, it can provide physical resources for us, economic resources, and arguably even some spiritual resources.

In short, outer space can't wait - not if we want to save the earth, and ourselves”

“It can't wait too long - he's spending a$17 B a year on it, right now.

And, as I've said elsewhere, it can help us deal with some of those problems.”

“I am so glad you are willing to dismiss what I am talking about as propganda, but what you are giving is "the truth" (without any proof I might add)

As for claiming you understand the complexities of farming - so far you've given me a "well, just plant stuff and watch it grow" - thats not the way you do farming when you have to deal with large societies. If you understand it, give me something relevent.

Also, I didn't claim to be famous - I said well known - there is a difference, but this is a tangent. As for Smug - well, I live and breath space, because as should be clear, I fundmentally believe we need to do space development. So, yea, I like to think I know a good amount.”

“Actually, mbaty, you've hit the nail directly on the head - the issue is whether space can help with societies problems. And that is its biggest problem, which is annoying as hell because, given a chance, it could. We just don't utilize it at all well

As for the issue of NASA & its secrets - the issue isn't that NASA is hiding anything - the dirty secret of NASA is that it is, and has been, so mis-managed as to make itself irrelevant to our country.

And that is a real tragedy.”

“Actually, after some consideration, I think I can better explain the fundamental difference - you hope to eliminate human excess, (and I suspect that you think its a cultural thing, rather than an evolutionary thing), where as I want to find a place where the excesses can safely work, (which I see as evolutionary, not cultural)”

“Yea, I've noticed that about the reply button – no idea whats happening

My point is, which you seemed to fail to grasp, is that space development produces new industries and new jobs. Ok, its entirely possible that company execs make to much - thats a seperate debate. The question here is, can space development help us. And it can.

Again, do me a favor, and go read the report, rather than shooting your mouth off, without looking at data.

As for the issue of climate science methodology vs the space report methodology - again, the issue is never the scientists - its the data. Its the same way with creationism - creationist attack the scientists, and its not the scientists they need to refute - its the data. Its the fossils in the ground that they have to refute. The point isn't to look at who produced the data - its to look at whether the data is valid. And you haven't done that.

I do suspect we are fundamentally at odds with each other. The issue is, I find your solution to be entirely unattainable, because you force people into living a very specific lifestyle, which they may or may not want, and more importantly, they may not be able to make work. Life isn't some cookie cutter situation that you can force people on, particularly when we have millions of years of evolution that forces us to do some things that push us towards growing all the”

“As for "death control" - what if someone wants to have 10 kids? Would you force them not to? I think thats morally wrong. I have no problem with birth control and abortion, but the idea that we are forcing those decisions on people - no thank you.

As for tellling you what to do - no you don't have to, but you are looking incredibly foolish when you aren't actually looking at the data. Finally, no actually, I am a die-hard democrat. In fact, I am a regular at Netroots Nation, and have a diary account at Dailykos (and am fairly well known actually”

“I don't claim that all of life is about economic growth. But it does make things easier. And I am all for finding a better goal. But don't act like it won't continue for a good long time to come about the importance of economics

Second, concerning space tourism - actually, its helping to promote environmentalism. A great example of this is Richard Garriott - he went to space on his own dollar, and has done a whole bunch of carbon offsets and the like to deal with the pollution he put out. FURTHER, again, if you actually looked at what space tourism companies are doing, you'd find that a lot are moving in the direction of using less toxic fuels, and more importantly, there are more than a few that are looking at trying to make it a green industry. A great example of this is the WhiteKnigh­tTwo/Space­shipTwo, which uses tree rubber as part of its fuel stock, and has one of the most energy efficient planes ever.

Concerning gardening with high tech - the fact that you are comparing your run of the mill backyard garden with farming, which is infinitely more complex, shows your lack of knowledge - seriously, the work that goes into figuring how and where and when to plant is much more than just a backyard garden. Having 1 tomato doesn't feed a family, or a society.”

“And, you still haven't addressed why you are so sure we can't do space development, and you "well, I say its that way" doesn't hold any water.”

“I am more than prepared to consider my sources - if you actually bothered to LOOK at the book, and consider the methodology, rather than criticize without examing the data, you might realize that the basis for it is more than sound. You are like the people who criticize climate scientists for their data because they are climate scientist.

Go look at the data, instead of saying its unreliable because the Space Foundation produced it -yes, they commissioned it, but it wasn't a bunch of idiots who ran it. They looked at the entire range of the industry - Direct to Home television is worth $65 B, GPS is worth $56 B, Satellite radio was worth $2B

Do me a favor - go look at the data, not the producer. Its the data you need to refute.”

“Well, with that kind of argument, I am surprised more people aren't flocking to your banner /snark”

“Actually, that $251 Billion is very demonstratable - Go read the 2008 Space Report - http://thespacereport.org/store/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=1_4&products_id=4
In 116 glories color pages, they lay out the entire space economy, as it is right now. The Commercail Satellite services industry is worth $138.83 B alone,

I haven't yet read the 09 report, so I can't speak to that, but in 2008, it was worth $251 Billion dollars - thats fact. Don't like it? Well, facts are damn inconvient things.

And what exactly do you find laughable about the idea of expanding society into space? There are demonstratable ways to do this - I suggest The High Frontier by Gerald O'Neil, who talks about the resources that are available to us, and he largely focused on the physical resources. What is so laughable about the idea that people are prepared to spend their own money to visit space, because its cool? Or that they would like to have access to cheap remote sensing, so that they can better plan their farms, their communities, and so on? Or that the zero-g enviroment is unique enought that we can make some incredible drugs to help peopl?

You are going to have to actually demonstrate why you are so opposed to these things, kind of like how I have no problem citing the $251 Billion.”

“I disagree that he is very far from crew. The NASA money he is getting is very small compared to other programs.

Any money you care to name, a manned Dragon will fly before Orion ever flies.”

“Concerning ISS - we have learned how to do complicated construction techniques in space. Second, considering that it hasn't finished being built, (and we've pulled most of the science experimentation funding from it) its a little early to say it can't produce anything

In addition, you are asking the wrong issue - its not whether there are pressing problems in space. Rather, you should ask the question is there something in space & space development, that can help us solve a pressing society problem. And its pretty clear there is. For example, you commented on green energy - well consider what Space Based Solar Power could do for us, if we invested in it. But there is no way you get that without doing serious space development, which means human spaceflight. Another point is that space development, done properly, can lead to new industry creation, which means it can grow the economy. And Space development is getting close to the point where it can be self-sustaining. And there are a lot of potential industries.

Always consider whether you've asked the right questions, before you try and answer them”