dutchman's Comments (8290)

“Agreed - retirement ages have to go up.”

“Well all, it's dinner time.

Hope to see everyone later.

And HP - is it really to much to ask that you focus on some LEADING indicators and not just the LAGGING ones?”

“Hungry - heading out to dinner in a few minutes - will check back in before bedtime though. Hope we overlap!”

“Well, I actually did make a proposal to save Social Security a few years back (something I've just dusted off and shared with LadyNaga, as it turns out).

Let's just say that I can't really spell it out with a 250 word limit.

But there are indeed solutions, and - as is my favorite theme - it requires that the US learn from what other nations are doing.

It's a question of political will, not economic possibility.”

“They are one step removed from the (relatively) more advanced emerging markets, like those in Southeast Asia or Eastern Europe, or to your other question, Brazil and Latin America.

We like Brazil. They also have challenges, but not near as much as India and China face.

We actually don't do country forecasts - we focus more on "asset classes", where we make a distinction between the emerging markets, which have at least the rudiments of a market and legal system, versus less developed nations that don't. These "frontier markets" are more of a private equity play, and requires people on the ground who really know what they are doing. Luckily, we do know of some, and think that we can offer our clients some interesting long term investments as a result.

And it should be stated that we're Socially Responsible types - we have no interest in anything that's exploitative or unethical. And happily - again - those opportunities do exist.”

“Hi Lady! How are you?”

“So, my partners are finalizing our year end reports for our pension clients, and including with them our outlook for 2010.

Our collective wisdom (if you can call it that) suggests to us that America's short to medium term prospects are best among the OECD, mainly because everything from inventories to the working labor force is quite stretched right now. And a weak currency is already providing a nice boost to exports, helping to close America's yawning trade gap.

We think the deficit figures will look better than current estimates suggest, mainly because there will be some gains to be taxed in 2009. Of course, this is volatile, and may not last.

But when you look at our longer term forecasts, the US is near the bottom of our list in terms of potential, because America is hugely vulnerable to the twin certainties of peak oil and a retiring baby boom. Unless it gets serious about fixing both, we think it will just fall farther behind pretty much everyone.

We're very bullish on the so-called "frontier" markets. We're pretty convinced that the cell phone revolution that is sweeping India, China and huge swaths of Africa will yield some of the most interesting opportunities everywhere.

And finally, we like China in the short term, but think that it and India have among the very worst long term prospects, as they have by far the largest (in percentage terms even) demographic bubbles - anywhere.

Caveat emptor.”

“For this week, and this week only, I am a Longhorns fan.

Beat 'bama!!!!!”

“Thanks, my friend and fellow attender of games at Memorial Stadium.

How 'bout them bug eaters? Next year looks very interesting......”

“Thanks! RIght back at ya!!”

“BradSmith I'm a Fan of BradSmith 234 fans permalink

.......Spectacular performance, More of the the same is what I see. If you liked Bush you should Love Obama. More wars and handouts for the elite.

+++++++

Brad, I must acknowledge that more than once I've read your posts and said "I agree with that". And while I share some of your frustration with Obama, I think it's silly to equate Obama with Bush. They are not the same, even if they have some (too many??) similarities.

Obama inherited a awful economy. His hands are tied when it comes to providing significant fiscal or monetary stimulation, vastly more than Bush's were.

I will say again that most of us that were paying attention to the liquidity meltdown a year ago were convinced that things would be worse right now. That they are not is reason to cheer.

Are America's problems huge? Of course. I also wish that Obama would begin to focus his attention on the long-term fiscal sink holes of Medicare and Social Security. I believe that both can be fixed but the bigger truth is that they MUST BE fixed.

In the meantime, it would be nice to see something resembling a goal to work together to solve our problems coming from the Right. It's hard to see how anything that the Republicans are doing is making things better.”

“You know Brad, I must acknowledge that more than once I've read your posts and said "I agree with that". And while I, too, have some frustration with Obama, I think it's a bit much to compare Obama and Bush. They are not the same, and I do not want to see political power back in Republican hands.

Obama inherited a awful economy. His hands are very tied when it comes to providing any real fiscal or monetary push on the economy, for a lot of the reasons you list.

But I will say again that most of us that were paying close attention to the liquidity meltdown a year ago were convinced that things would actually be far worse at this point. That they are not is at least partly due to steps that Obama (and to be fair, even Bush) enacted.

Our America's problems huge? Of course. I also wish that Obama would begin to focus his attention on the long-term fiscal sink holes of medicare and Social Security. I believe that both can be fixed but the bigger truth is that they MUST BE fixed.

Keeping pressure on this (and indeed any) administration is the best way to ensure that they are doing what they need to.

In the meantime, it would be nice to see something resembling a goal to work together to solve our problems coming from the Right. It's hard to see how anything that the Republicans are doing is making things better.”

“As do I.

A foundation in German will help you. Just be prepared to get the "throat disease" if you want to make the proper noises,”

“Ah Flossy - once again I can rely on your ability to completely miss the point and deflect with a self serving bit of propaganda.

See, it was our centre-left government that oversaw the 1982 accords that form the basis for our system.

And while we indeed have a centre-right government, don't pretend for a second that it has anything in common with your Republicans.

Indeed, it's more left wing than many of America's Democrats are.

And by the way, when were you ever going to regale me with your post about the three components of GDP growth? I've been very patient, you know.”

“I never served. I think you're confusing me with someone else.”

“None taken! (my mum is Danish)

Actually, we do have some hotheads in both countries, and here in Amsterdam we had a foiled attempt at our local IKEA a year ago (I know it's not funny, but I always have these images of millions of random IKEA parts strewn about, without the instructions to figure out which is which).”

“Well, we did kind of forget ourselves during the 70s......

But I give our (centre right, ironically) government very high marks. I don't agree with what comes out of our coalition system all the time, but most of the time it works and pretty much all of the time it reflects an ability to work together that I would love to see America copy.”

“I love both, actually.

But like an exasperating family member, the US seems determined to be its own worst enemy. And self congratulatory views like yours are a reason why.”

“....worked better.”

“A repost. Sorry, but it still seems relevant:

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I wish Americans would learn more about Dutch economic history.

It seems highly relevant.

You see, the 1970s were not kind to The Netherlands. Oil discoveries in the North Sea managed to drive our guilder sharply higher, and as a result, our export driven economy (ours is among the most exposed to global trade), languished, with our "national champions" like Philips suffering badly. We had double digit unemployment and flat economic growth - pretty much where the US finds itself today.

So, what did we do? Well, in 1982 our government, union and business leaders got together and formed the basis of what's now called "the Polder Model". In effect, the unions agreed to increased job flexibility and benefits, the corporate sector agreed to protect and create jobs, and the government agreed to provide a comprehensive welfare system to fill in the gaps, while also being very pro business (sadly, pro-big business - see my earlier post).

is it perfect? Lord no, and there have been (and will continue to be) adjustments.

But has it worked? Unquestionably, as our economy has outperformed even the vaunted US economy ever since. Dutch unemployment is around 6%, versus 10% (actually much higher) in the US. More critically, Dutch GDP per capita has grown faster than in America, and wages have therefore also risen, and more broadly.

America is richer, but that's because it's skewed on the top end. For everyone else, our system has”

“You pretend that is only true in the US.

The EU sees FAR MORE asylum applications than the US does.

I agree that there are elements of greatness in the US. But your self important delusion that America is number is most clearly not supported by any facts.”

“LOL - everyone here speaks English.

That said, the government will want you to try.”

“You misjudge me.

I care deeply about the misfortune of others.

But I'm happy that my tiny firm is going to increase its headcount from 5 to 7 this coming year. It's insignificant for the economy as a whole, of course.

But it is a sign things are getting better.”

“It's evening here.”

“So, yesterday I went on a lot about how the rest of the world has so many lessons to teach the US. I mean really, isn't it almost ALWAYS cheaper to learn from the example of others than from your own mistakes?

Anyway, what amazes me is that there still is absolutely ZERO acknowledgement from our trollies that the US is in anyway something besides NUMBER 1 at EVERYTHING.

Which is remarkable, because the slide over the last decade has been unmistakeable and amply documented, with literally dozens of nations now besting the US in terms of per capita GDP growth, health care, education and increasingly, overall quality of life.

Anyone who has ever set foot outside of the US is immediately confronted by how worn out America's infrastructure is, and how parochial its religion infused anti-science approach to life has become. I mean really, when will America join the rest of the advanced world and accept Evolution as fact?

Anyway, I again defy our trollies to defend what they think makes America #1. Apart from prisoners, debt and get rich quick schemes, there's little that the nation does best anymore.”