What Recession?

Look, I don't want to be a pill and rain on the whole gloom thing we're all experiencing. There's no doubt it's real. I look at the numbers the same as you do. Revenue is down. Unemployment is up. We're circling the drain, definitely, I'm not arguing with anybody about that. It's the worst black hole since all those black and white pictures were taking during the depths of the century just past.

But it's got to be one of the weirdest recession/depressions on record. I just spent the same weekend you did. Turkey. Ham. Leftovers. And, of course, shopping. So I'm wondering if you saw the same thing I did. As in: Crowds. Lines. People clawing at stuff on racks as if their lives depended on it. Hoards of greedy Americans shoving lunchtime carbs into their faces so they wouldn't have to break stride in mid-spend.

So I have to ask: What's up?

Started Friday, after a Thanksgiving filled with good cheer, grog and incessant radio and television spots screaming about unprecedented buying opportunities. I asked myself: Who are these numbskulls who get up at dawn to purchase a flat screen TV? Who would stand online at 3 a.m. to get a ticket so they can come back later and get a Wii for a couple bucks off?

The new day dawned early. "Let's go to Best Buy," said my son over breakfast. "Really?" I said.

We were there by 10. As we rolled into the parking lot, I said to him, "You know, this recession is hitting everybody right now. Even me." Perhaps he was wearing those tiny earphones I got him for his birthday, because he didn't answer. The lot was full. Like, totally. I had to park in the overflow area.

In the store, the scene was nuts. Huge crowds around the gaming systems, the HDTVs, the computers, the DVDs. Lines at the register. We went over to the area in which we had an interest: car audio. He has a new/old clunker whose main deficiency, it seems, is in the quality of its sound system.

There was a massive megadeal posted on the wall. A fabulous complete set-up for just $600. The car itself is worth about that, maybe a buck or two less. "Do you have any super-mega-awesome-once-in-a-lifetime Black Friday deals?" I asked the clerk, who was younger than the car in question. He looked at the deal posted on the wall and ripped it down. "That deal ended a couple of weeks ago," he said. "But we can work something out." He did some figures on the back of an envelope. "We can do a mid-range system for... $875, plus tax. That includes installation."

I noted that the price seemed to be a simple total of the hardware necessary, plus about $300 for installation. "What happened to the meta-mooga-humongous deals for Black Friday?" I asked. "They're not store-wide," he said. We left, fighting our way through the mob of frenzied consumers toward fresh air and light.

So obviously, there was no panic about the recession at Best Buy. True, there were absolutely NO people in their installation area, so maybe they'll be sorry later they didn't moderate their prices a bit on the car stereo question. Maybe they're getting the overflow from other places that have gone under. But who are all these people forking over piles of green? Aren't they aware that the economy is in the sump?

Throughout the weekend, the same story proliferated. Target was full. At Costco, you couldn't get a seat at the hot dog stand. I had to knock over an old lady to get to a 50-pound bag of frozen shrimp.

So I'm open to suggestion. What do YOU think is going on here?

Comments

[Sundialsvc4]

I think that there's a huge amount of impatience that is collectively felt by 305 million people ("We, the People of the United States") in the face of grotesque mis-management ... by a government that is too much in awe of its supposed ability to produce "money" at the mere stroke of a pen.

When we talk to our grandfathers, they remember both the Great Depression and The War. We, ourselves, remember "$32 an ounce" and "vacuum cleaners built like a battleship."

So... what do I see here? I see opportunity.

It was well within both your lifetime and my own that we watched this thing called "Reaganomics" and wondered why the fellow was wearing a green coat and why he had this curious passion for shamrocks. All the factories here were closed, one by one, because "it was so much cheaper" somewhere else. Uh huh. Don't look quite the same in the morning light, now does it?

Nevertheless, Stanley: "opportunity." As in, "We Can Do It!"

As soon as we stop looking to "the guv'mint" to save us, and realize that "that's not what guv'mint is for," we're going to start thinking: "305 million consumers" + "prodigious, if mothballed, production capacity" + "determination" = "something ol' lying Mr. Leprechaun only claimed to have."

[go]

Right now think of citizens of New Orleans on August 23rd 2005, that's the U.S. consumer. There is a big Katrina-esque economic storm coming. When August 25th hits loads of people will be on their proverbial roofs clutching their flat screens and Wiis. Same as it ever was.

[000Jade000]

Here's what I think is going on: people do NOT understand how serious the situation really is.

Paulson gets on TV once every couple days & lies through his teeth about the "liquidity crisis"/ "housing correction" that we are facing. People have been watching the DOW have its epileptic seizures on their TV screens for months now. They hear about the amount of money going into the proverbial black hole and how its being used. They've listened to the pundits try to wade through talk of the bailouts - what's working, what's not, and why. They see the economists on air attempting to discuss the situation with talking heads who can't add much to the discussion at all, and who ask superficial questions of the economists that don't help the viewer understand anything.

I think the people who aren't already hurting because of lost jobs, homes, etc. are tuning out, buying the myth that this is a NORMAL recession, and going out shopping b/c they still have some credit, money, and a job, and expect to keep it -- since this is a "normal" recession.

Moreover, our media sucks when it comes to covering how this nightmare is unfolding globally, so I doubt that most people realize that other countries are being absolutely battered. And since most of us don't understand anything about globalization, we think that this is just our problem - our "normal recession," and that the markets will correct themselves soon.

[elizaconnors]

Call me silly, but it would be nice if we donated money to food banks rather than buy ridiculous TVs that we really don't need.

I am still reeling from learning that 10% of our population uses food stamps. This has really stopped me in my shopping tracks.

[DIAGUY]

I REALLY DON'T THINK THINGS ARE AS BAD AS IT SEEMS. I OWN A SMALL DIAMOND COMPANY IN A VERY DEPRESSED AREA OF THE COUNTRY , AND BUSINESS IS VERY BRISK. WHAT SHOCKS ME IS ONLY 4% OF MY SALES IN THE LAST 90DAYS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH CREDIT CARDS. ONE WOULD THINK IF A PERSON'S BACK WAS AGAINST THE WALL SHINY STONES FOR THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS WOULD BE THE LAST THING THAT YOU WOULD BUY. I THINK NOW THAT OBAMA IS IN OFFICE THE MEDIA WILL SEE THE SKY AS A LITTLE MORE BLUE AND START LOOKING AT THE ECONOMY AS A 'GLASS HALF FULL'.

[brother728]

- "We don"t believe we"re going to have a recession though." [Vice President Dick Cheney, 1/30/08]

- "I think the experts will tell you we"re not in a recession." [President Bush, 2/10/08]

- "The answer is, I don"t think we are in a recession right now." [Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear, 2/11/08]

" "First of all, we"re not in a recession." [President Bush, 4/22/08]

" "The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession." [Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear, 5/7/08]

- "I don"t think we are" in a recession. [Director of the National Economic Council Keith Hennesy, 6/3/08]

" "I think we have avoided a recession." [White House Budget Director Jim Nussle, 7/31/08]

" "I don"t think anybody could tell you right now if we"re in a recession or not" [Dana Perino, 10/7/08]

[cylindar]

We were conned by the retailers who said they had bargains but only had them on a few items which always sell out the first few seconds. Hahahahaha and Hohohoho, to everyone

[johnhummel]

What's happening here is: it takes a long time for a train to stop moving.

What you're seeing now is the beginning of the trouble. There are what - 300 million people in America, and maybe 3/5th of those are eligible for work (aka - above the age of 20, below the age of 70).

So when you see layoffs of 50,000 here and 20,000 there - it's not going to make a dent right away.

But over time, it will. We now have word that we've been in a recession since last December now. Might not seem like it - but as more people get out of work, more stores will have less money, and then they'll hire less people. With the credit market ground to a halt, the odds of someone starting a new business is rapidly approaching "Nill".

Yeah, right now, it still feels pretty good. Unless you're one of the people involved in the 100% increase in the need for local food drives. In my area of Tampa, the food banks are running out, and local charities like the one I know is working $100,000 in the red.

The more things slow down, the harder they will be to start up again. So take advantage of the deals while you can - and save the extra, because at this rate, w will need it.

[HeevenSteven]

We're all Keynesians now! lol.

[calluna]

I think it depends on where you were.

I went out shopping in in Central VA on Sunday, and there were no lines anywhere: Target, Staples, Whole Foods, Best Buy.... Even Walmart and Kmart didn't have full parking lots. More people were shopping than I've seen on similar excursions during the last couple of months, but there was no "frenzy."

[reddwriter]

your answer is right below your column:

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[montemalone]

Obviously, some people have not yet reached the limit on their credit cards.

[WIpatriot]

Bingo!