The War in Afghanistan Is A No-Win Situation

The situation in Afghanistan weighs more and more heavily on us. I took it up in a Huffington Post piece a while back titled Could Barack Obama Suffer The Fate of LBJ?

Many wish the war on terror to be translated from a military trap into a POLICE ACTION, something sane observers believe it should have been from the very start.

Today, comes a sad vindication of the reality and a stark warning that there can be no winning in Afghanistan. It will be Barack Obama's task to cut a deal and be honest about why

Violence in Afghanistan has reached its highest levels since the U.S.-led invasion ousted the Taliban regime in 2001 SOURCE

A Pakistani decision to temporarily bar some trucks from a key passageway to Afghanistan threatened a critical supply route for U.S. and NATO troops on Sunday and raised more fears about deteriorating security in the militant-plagued border region.

The suspension of oil tankers and trucks carrying sealed containers came as U.S.-led coalition troops in eastern Afghanistan reported killing five al-Qaida-linked fighters and detaining eight others, including a militant leader.

Al-Qaida and Taliban fighters are behind much of the escalating violence along the lengthy, porous Afghan-Pakistan border, and both nations have traded accusations that the other was not doing enough to keep militants out from its side.

The tensions come as violence in Afghanistan has reached its highest levels since the U.S.-led invasion ousted the Taliban regime in 2001 and as a surge in U.S. missile strikes on the Pakistani side of the border has prompted protests from Pakistan government leaders.

And this piece from UK notes that the answer lies in cutting a deal with the Taliban, period. SOURCE

There is no question that British troops win almost every battle and firefight, but the Taliban refuse to go away.

For every 10 men they lose, there are 10 more waiting to take their place.

The insurgents have a saying: "You have the clocks, we have the time."

The British and American strategy seems to be to fight on with increased numbers of troops and try to train the Afghan forces to take over.

Building a country virtually from scratch, containing the Taliban and developing a national army in a land that's riven by ethnic rivalries and feuding warlords is probably a challenge too far.

Cutting and running is not an option - so cutting a deal may have to be.

Repeat: The War in Afghanistan is a no-win situation. The answer lies in talking to the Taliban, something Barack has already advocated. A protracted military engagement should be avoided like a plague.

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Comments

[Stephen C. Rose - Huffpost Blogger]

http://rainbowwarrior2005.wordpress.com/2008/11/16/they-cant-win-the-war-in-afghanistan/

The post above includes this post and several others amplifying the argument.

[eXtensions]

Afghanistan has never provided a situation from which outsiders can win anything. Track back through history: the British and Russia in the 19th Century, the USSR (then) in the 20th Century tried and failed. Only Darius and Alexander had some success but Alexander was just passing through. The latter success of Muslim rulers, and eventually the Taliban, were perhaps because they were insiders. What the US, UK and the rest hope to achieve militarily will never happen. A negotiated withdrawal will be the best they can hope for.

[davidly]

You're are absolutely correct. It's nice to see that some people are aware of "The Big Game" between the empires in the 1800s.

If we are to take him at his promise, the next president is going to load up over there, unfortunately. I have to believe that someone wants to build that pipeline at any cost, despite all the evidence that it is untenable; not to mention immoral.

[Stephen C. Rose - Huffpost Blogger]

I think the issue is not resolved. Mainly because I believe Barack Obama is reasonable and listens to reason. I also believe he is committed to energy independence which would diminisn his interest in a pipeline there. I also believe he is telling the trurh in statements suggesting that he intends to conduct foreign policy openly. For all these reasons I feel voices that can point to the lessons of the Great Game have a chance of being heard.

[S1m0n]

The Mughal kings of india--for example Emperor Shah Jahan, builder of the Taj Mahal--commanded an empire that at its greatest extent began just north of Madrass at the southern tip of India and extended throught the Kyber Pass into afghanistan and central asia.

In fact, as the descendants of Mongols, Central Asia was where they'd come from in the first place. In any case, they're the only power to have pacified much of Afghanistan for any length of time.