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Stephen Schlesinger

Stephen Schlesinger

Posted: October 1, 2010 05:40 PM

There may be a dim, but brightening, beacon, at the end of the Afghan tunnel. At least that's what the UN's emissary to Afghan conflict, Staffan de Mistura, Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Afghanistan, conveyed to a group at a private meeting held by the International Peace Institute, an independent think-tank in New York City, last Thursday September 30th. Mr. De Mistura, a distinguished 38 year career official of the organization who is in his seventh month in Kabul, said that, while the Taliban have never admitted it, he believes they have concluded that they cannot win the war militarily. This may be a self-serving message for a UN official to transmit, but De Mistura, a dual citizen of Italy and Sweden, is considered one of the UN's star diplomats and would not necessarily wish to place the organization in the position of claiming progress if they was none.

De Mistura feels that the Taliban have realized that they can no longer take over Afghanistan again because they are so disliked by the Afghan people as a result of their catastrophic half-decade in power that saw minimal progress, the persecution of women, the general repression of the citizenry, and a deadly alliance with Al Qaeda. Many Taliban, he says, have bitterly learned their lessons from their behavior and have changed, even to the point of distancing themselves from Bin Laden and his vicious warriors. In addition, he argues, in any case, there are now four or five different Taliban factions - nationalists, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, and outsider groups, which further splinters the movement. Also neighboring countries who fear the Taliban will make sure at all costs that the insurgents do not retake control of the country. Finally there are foreign troops from some 47 countries in Afghanistan, making a takeover at the moment a virtual impossibility. De Mistura thinks that, by July 2011, the date set by President Obama for the beginning of US withdrawal, the reconciliation process will have been completed, leading to a peace settlement. Those dealings will assure the Taliban's agreement to the Afghan constitution, the laying down of arms, and its recognition of the rights of women. The first step, he notes, is already being taken by the Afghans through the Karzai government's High Peace Council that is reaching out for talks with the Taliban; in time, there will also be discussions with regional powers; and a final resolution will be reached under a global umbrella. The next ten months, he says, will be rough as both sides jockey for the strongest position. But this is the "make it or break it" time for the war to end.

 
 
 
 
 
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AZreb
equal-opportunity Independent heathen
08:09 AM on 10/03/2010
Even IF (big IF) this war in Afghanistan ends soon, it will just mean more action in Pakistan. Seems like we are becoming a nation of endless wars.
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kennyfloyd
My Micro-bio is empty
10:36 PM on 10/02/2010
After the deadliest Sept. on record for American combat deaths, i'd say the taliban hasn't learned anything militarily. He thinks this can all be wrapped up at the same time Obama does, how'bout that. The stronges most powerful force in the world back by a trillion and change still haven't defeated anyone how are these neighbors going to fix the taliban if they get uppity after American leaves? This guy is dreaming. Maybe his audience was impressed, but i'm not. Is the taliban going to sign a peace treaty? Maybe, will any of them honor it, mabye, will they all? Hell no!

I see an end to this war even sooner. All that has to happen is Pakistan keeps that border crossing closed. No, food, water, fuel, weapons (like tanks) can get through right now, if that stays that way, America will have no choice but to leave. Then the next war can begin. The civil war. And then the next one, and the ne...............
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
The other mike
01:50 PM on 10/02/2010
One definition of insanity is repeating the same actions but expecting a different outcome. First there was Vietman, then Iraq, now Afghanistan. When will we ever learn? All politicians should be required to read Andrew Bacevich's "The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism".
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Intolerantcentrist
No thanks…I brought my own air.
11:50 AM on 10/02/2010
Yes. From Afghanistan the solution is in sight: to the west in Pakistan.
05:53 PM on 10/03/2010
LOL. Pakistan is to the east of Afghanistan.
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Intolerantcentrist
No thanks…I brought my own air.
06:30 PM on 10/03/2010
Yes, realized that after the click. My mistake is that it should have said “the West”. I failed at my attempt at directional-cultural irony. Ooops
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mjc
Avoid printing any..
11:03 AM on 10/02/2010
De Mistura might well be right that the Taliban, united or disparate segments, don't believe they could actually replicate the 5 years when they pretty much controlled Afghanistan, but that doesn't mean that they are going to fade into the civilian woodwork and leave the "country" to a new, democratic central government. I'm sure Petraeus isn't worried about losing his war or his credentials. And as long as Pakistan is still willing to allow them in and out of the Waziristan region, the Taliban don't have too much to sorry about. The drones sent to kill them actually kill far more civilians and children than they do and their standing with Pakistanis and Afghans grudgingly goes up.
07:19 AM on 10/02/2010
The western take on Afghanistan and Pakistan is the problem, by reading this article, Al Qaeda and the Taliban have so many factions that the war could be turned over quickly.
General Mullen issued a serious advisory of the high rate of suicides in the American forces. Why is that?
NATO and the Americans are not winning the war and they are killing mainly women and children, their high tech military madness is destroying villages, leveling them and killing their people.
How can the Americans gain support in Afghanistan by killing the innocent women and children, I still feel in my heart and those in Muslim lands concur that these shelling and drone attacks are really meant for the innocent women and children.
Now, you are seeing the same thing done too in Pakistan, the west reports many Taliban dead from a drone attack, but Press TV, Al Jazeera have ready access, why, because they are Muslim reporters and they go to the source and film burned bodies of women and children that CNN reports are Taliban fighters.
The hatred is growing for the Americans, coupled with the actions of the government and many American non Muslims who are terrorizing American Muslims, this is adding up.
It is not enough anymore to tell are young Muslims not to join these insurgents, when they are in their homes being questioned, discriminate against in the west, they view reports of American invasions and the killing of innocent Muslims; insurgencies will continue
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Tom Pumroy
practical dreamer-artist Man Ray
06:42 AM on 10/02/2010
Some one said something that I have never forgotten though I did forget who it was that said it, no matter, it went something like this.

“There are two kinds of change, planned change and catastrophic change and when you neglect to do the first you are left to suffer the latter”. It seems pretty clear that in America today change is virtually off the table, ain’t gonna happen, no how no way, never ever as long as the moneyed interests are in charge and see change as detrimental to their bottom lines.

So we are destined to eventually face catastrophic change when all the plans that we should have had and didn’t don’t lead to solutions to our many problems and the tsunami of our lack of foresight finally catches us napping comfortably on the sofa of willful self deception. A classic example of the blind leading the blind into that ditch we hear so much about.
researcher
researcher
12:48 AM on 10/02/2010
the corrupt afghan culture will wear americans down and drain them of treasure.

an imperialist nation cannot take over the second most corrupt nation on earth and make it a democracy. no amout of money can do that. sorry. we cant buy our way out of this one.

we have lost our republic to corp fascism but we are going to fix them. insanity!

this nation did not learn its lessons from nam so we get another opportunity.

those opportunities just keep coming.

it is called karma.

the downside, we will suffer greatly until we learn.

two ways to learn: wisdom of others and suffering .

most of the world chooses suffering.

the worst is yet to come.

enjoy the moment it will not get any better in our lifetimes.

yes the politicans will tell you a different story. they lie.

please dont be upset that our politicans will lie to you. :-)
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07:25 PM on 10/01/2010
Excuse me, but why did my post of the lnik to the AP story on U.S. soldiers posing with the bodies of deaf Afghanis get scrubbed?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101001/ap_on_re_us/us_afghan_probe_photographs
07:16 PM on 10/01/2010
The only part I agree with is this one "In addition, he argues, in any case, there are now four or five different Taliban factions - nationalists, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, and outsider groups, which further splinters the movement."
Thus when NATO forces pull out, Afghanistan will return to another 20 years of civil war to the added suffering of its already poor traumatized civilian population.
Afghanistan is a nation where Tribal loyalties and Tribal culture trump democratic values. It was very presumptuous for us to think that thousand-year old traditions will vanish overnight just for Western Values. The values of enlightenment had to come from within the West, and even here took 300 years to manifest and ripen.
The Western way will leave with the Western troops. The Afghan people do not know or understand what we tried (and failed) to impose upon them. The British learned that 150 years ago http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_influence_in_Afghanistan and now the lesson is being learned again.
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07:23 PM on 10/01/2010
"When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains
And the women come out to cut up what remains
Just roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
And go to yer Gawd like a soldier!"

-From "The Young Britis Soldier" by Rudyard Kipling
anthonyve
An exmilitary, excorporate Aussie
08:04 PM on 10/01/2010
What Kipling had to say a hundred years ago - give or take - wasn't true then. It's even less so now.
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07:10 PM on 10/01/2010
Meanwhile, photos show U.S. soldiers posing with the corpses of dead Afghans.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101001/ap_on_re_us/us_afghan_probe_photographs

The people of Afghanistans' emnity toward the Taliban is nothing compared to their loathing of the U.S. presence in their country.
06:58 PM on 10/01/2010
Geez Stephen. Don't you get tired of carrying the water for this tragedy? Don't you know the water is laced with arsenic?
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Cleverboots
06:36 PM on 10/01/2010
Don't tell Petraeus. He won't know what to do with himself without a war to mess up.
06:35 PM on 10/01/2010
Stephan,
Many people have a distant memory of the peace with honor that ended the Vietnam conflict. It showed the true color of America and the films of the exit rank heavy on the list of amazing failures. It seems to many that our interest is commercial under the guise of freedom just as Vietnam. And once again the American people are really left in the dark while some cabal dictates at carte blanche of the taxpayer what the world is to look like. Maybe we could just send in some christian missionaries to bid for souls and let the supreme one take care of the direction of humanity.