The Stealing of the Iranian Election

It is certainly not unprecedented for Western observers to miscalculate the outcome of an election in a country where pre-election polls are not as rigorous as Western countries, particularly when there is a clear bias towards a particular candidate. At the same time, the predictions of knowledgeable Iranian observers from various countries and from across the political spectrum were nearly unanimous in the belief that the leading challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi would defeat incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad decisively in yesterday's presidential election, certainly in the runoff if not in the first round. This also appeared to be the assumption among independent observers in Iran itself.

So overwhelming were the signs of imminent Ahmadinejad defeat and so massive was the margin of his alleged victory, the only reasonable assumption was that there has been fraud on a massive scale. What polls did exist showed Mousavi leading by a clear majority and Ahmadinejad well under 40%, a margin roughly similar to what most analysts had suggested based on anecdotal evidence. Instead, the official results show Ahmadinejad winning by an overwhelming 63% of the vote.

The unmistakable political trend in Iran in the past four years has been toward greater liberalism and moderation, particularly with the addition of millions of new younger voters who are overwhelmingly disenchanted with Ahmadinejad's ultra-conservative social policies and failed economic policies. The very idea that he would do substantially better than he did in the election four years ago, therefore, is ludicrous at face value. Indeed, in municipal and other elections held over the past couple of years, Ahmadinejad's preferred slates lost heavily to moderate conservatives and reformers.

Ahmadinejad won a tight presidential race four years ago campaigning as an economic populist, gaining wide support among the poor for his calls for reducing inequality and fighting endemic corruption. However, his administration has been at least as corrupt as his predecessors, his economic policies have resulted in high inflation and high unemployment, and he has been ruthless is suppressing labor unions, such as the bus drivers strike in Tehran. As a result, his popularity has plummeted, making the idea of substantially greater popular support today particularly questionable.

There are also more direct indications of fraud.

In past elections, there have been substantial variations in the vote of various candidates based on ethnicity and geography, but the official results show Ahmadinejad's vote totals being relatively uniform across the country. Mousavi, an Azeri from the province of Azerbaijan who has been quite popular there, did poorly, according to official results. This is particularly striking since even minor candidates from that area had done disproportionately well in previous elections. Similarly, Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate and an ethnic Lur, supposedly fared poorly in his home province of Luristan. Nationally, Karoubi went from 17% in the 2005 election to less than 1% this year with no apparent reason for such a precipitous decline. Meanwhile, the much-despised Mohsen Rezaie, the other hardline candidate, allegedly got twice as many votes.

Among the most implausible part of the official results is the claim that Ahmadinejad won a clear majority in the capital of Tehran. In reality, most knowledgeable observers have estimated that he has the support of barely half the population in his stronghold in the southern part of the city while he is overwhelmingly despised elsewhere in that city of 12 million. Had Ahmadinejad somehow been able to eke out a legitimate victory, it would have come from the rural areas, not urban strongholds of the opposition like Tehran and Tabriz.

Iran's Electoral Commission, rather than waiting the customary three days before having the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei certify the results of the election, instead had Khamenei approve the alleged results immediately, presumably as early returns showed the likelihood of a substantial Mousavi victory. While in previous elections the results were announced by each voting district, which would allow at least some degree of follow-up regarding their validity, this time the results were announced only at the citywide of provincial level. Already, Interior Ministry employees are beginning to speak out about witnessing the fabrication of phony vote totals.

The electoral system under the Islamic Republic has always been tightly controlled to the point that the Guardian Council pre-screened potential candidates for what they considered to be appropriate adherence to their theocratic order. However, within that rather limited range of legitimacy, previous elections were deemed relatively free and fair. This massive fraud, then, is unprecedented. Indeed, as security forces seized newspapers and other media election night to ensure the fraud would not be reported and government has shut down much of the country's electronic communication, Iranians spoke in terms of what appears to be nothing less than a internal coup.

While there is much to criticize about U.S. policy towards Iran over the years as well as the double-standards of the U.S. government regarding election-rigging and autocratic rule among its allies, there should be no denial that yesterday's presidential election in Iran involved fraud on a massive scale.

The stealing of the Iranian presidential elections is a dream come true for American neo-conservatives and others pushing for a more confrontational approach with Iran. It is imperative that we not allow the hard-liners of either country an illegitimate victory and give our support to Iranian democrats in their struggle to reclaim their country.

Comments

[MED1025]

It looks like the Iranians are working this out themselves.

[oncethere]

Ahmadinejad was later heard denying that an election took place or that an opposition leader, Mosauwi ever existed.

[Hammersmithman]

I agree that any US interference may be counter-productive but so will entering in talks with the Iranian leadership and effectively rewarding the Iranian regime for it's fraud at polls. The only logical way is to get back to the UNSC and put the squeeze on them from there.

[BiBiJan]

According to surveys taken in Iran in early 2008 by WorldPubli­cOpinion.o­rg and Terror Free Tomorrow:
(66%) of those polled approved of "the way President Ahmadinejad is handling his job as president"

http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/527.php

Since then, the incumbent MA has been grandstanding with progress in nuclear technology, putting a sattelie in orbit, etc. These, as well as populist ecenomic policies such as doubling of pensians, repeated tours of the countryside, retaining a modest life style, etc would lead to the next set of findings:

Another poll by the same organization says:

"In a rare independent nationwide survey before the June Presidential elections, Iranians of every political inclination are united in their desire for greater democracy, economic progress and better relations with the United States. While our uncensored poll shows incumbent President Ahmadinejad in the lead with a plurality of support"
http://terrorfreetomorrow.org/articlenav.php?id=5

The poll was presented and here's the clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSH8-LYJ9nM

[arvay]

A tragedy here for the Iranian people, and ditto on the hope that we do nothing to inflame the situation.

The last thing democracy advocates in Iran need is a bellicose US stoking up nationalistic fervor, which will only help Ahmadinejad and the religious government.

This is step one in an eventual overthrow of the theocracy, but it's not going to happen overnight. The government is heavily armed, but its economic failure and stepped-up harassment of citizens will build opposition.

Communism once looked impregnable, but dissolved in most places it was tried.

[RTIII]

My take: Yes, it was clearly a coup', and the only people who can do anything about it are the Iranians themselves as they push for their second revolution in my lifetime.

More power to them!

I support the protesters.

However, I do not feel the USA should do anything but scowl disapprovingly and then continue on with whatever "leader" fate brings to the negotiating table regarding nuclear weapons talks.
.

[ObamaSheeple]

Ditto!

[GardenerNorCal]

"The stealing of the Iranian presidential elections is a dream come true for American neo-conservatives and others pushing for a more confrontational approach with Iran."

I am not so sure it was stolen, but some certainly have a reason to paint it that way.

[LMPE]

Ahmadinejad wins in Iran. Medvedev's allies win in Russia. Europe shifts right.

Maybe South America (Lula, Evo, Hugo, Nestor/Cristina, Lugo, Bachelet) is the ideal part of the world.

[AhnAmuru]

So, that makes US the last beacon of hope.

[robbep]

We have no way to prove that this election was stolen so getting involved in iranian affairs makes no sense. This is not a US prblm .

[AhnAmuru]

Not sure you understand that whatever happens around the world impacts US.

We won't "send in troops" but the least we can do is demand minimum human rights standards.

[Reehda]

So, why doesn't the US demand minimum human rights standards in Saudi Arabia - its foremost ally in the ME ?

And in Egypt, where a US supported thug has been running as President unopposed for the last 25 years ?

Come on Americans, don't pick and choose.

[arle]

This is a tragic day for Iran and for democracy. We have to hope there are enough wisdom somewhere in the Iranian government (and unfortunately, it's going to /have/ to be among the theocratic elements especially) who will stand up and do something before this erupts into something far worse than it's already become. I mourn what has happened in Iran these past few days.

[BiBiJan]

According to surveys taken in Iran in early 2008 by WorldPubli­cOpinion.o­rg and Terror Free Tomorrow:
(66%) of those polled approved of "the way President Ahmadinejad is handling his job as president"

http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/527.php

Another poll by the same organization says:

"In a rare independent nationwide survey before the June Presidential elections, Iranians of every political inclination are united in their desire for greater democracy, economic progress and better relations with the United States. While our uncensored poll shows incumbent President Ahmadinejad in the lead with a plurality of support"
http://terrorfreetomorrow.org/articlenav.php?id=5

The poll was presented and here's the clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSH8-LYJ9nM

[wereeverywhere]

"Plurality of support" does not translate to 65%, with 80% plus turnout it's a total slap in the face to the opposition. Look at the particulars of the election and its a mess and a coup and a declaration of war by Ahmadinejad on his opponents. The people in the streets know this and that's where my hopes lay.

[BiBiJan]

Follow the links. Watch the video clip. TFT predicted a 2 to 1 wipe-out. They showed no more than 18% support among Azeris for Mousavi.

Once again foreign agitators are robbing Iran of the crucial role a 35% minority should have in a participatory system of government. By encouraging the losing side to go on a rampage, they ensure that 35% will shrink by the next election. That is not good for any country.

[JerryLevy]

I get such a kick out of this. They only allow their hand picked, vetted candidates to run and when they do, they still have to steal the election. Ahhh the Iranian democracy.

[Reehda]

Oh, and Obama gave a speech from where Cairo ....

The beacon of democracry ... where a US puppet thug is running as President unopposed for the last 25 years.

Double standards ... America

[JerryLevy]

The entire Arab world is run by "thugs" whether xeonophobic dictators or totalitarian mullahs.

[FearlessFreep]

What country does Ahmadinejad think this is, the US?

[winningticket]

Better yet: Who does Achmedinejad think he is, Bush?

[Sam T]

LOL. My thoughts exactly.