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Steve Clemons

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Note to Obama: Puffery and Pandering on Israel and Iran Are Not Strategy

Posted: 03/ 2/2012 4:58 pm

netanyahu obama.jpgMy Atlantic colleague Jeffrey Goldberg just scored an extensive interview with President Obama in which Obama says to Iran and Israel, "As President of the United States, I don't bluff."

Goldberg's preamble is important and must-read, but the interview itself is vital and gives one a good sense of both Obama's strategic strengths and weaknesses.

The decision of the White House to talk to Goldberg reflects their desire to speak to what Obama defined in the interview as "the Israeli people, and. . .the pro-Israel community in this country" less than a week before the annual Washington meeting of AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. 

goldberg cnn thumb.jpgThis was not an interview designed to warn Iran of the consequences of proceeding down a nuclear weapons acquisition track. This read more like a combination of assurances to the American Jewish community that Obama was a serious national security hawk on Iran during an election year.  It felt like pandering -- not too dissimilar to presidential candidate Obama's speech to AIPAC in 2008 when he made the remarkable, provocative, Arab-offending statement, "Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel, and it must remain undivided."

During the interview, Obama expressed dismay that despite standing with Israel on challenge after challenge -- every key issue facing the country -- that many doubted the sincerity of his support for Israel.  The President sounded emotionally 'needy', wanting validation that the American Jewish community and Israelis really, really liked him and understand that he's on their side. 

This is not presidential; this is not the way the President of the United States should be positioning himself -- and it's clear that the emotional and political leverage that Netanyahu has engineered over Obama has had a real impact. 

KHAMENEI1.jpgIsrael is a client state of the United States -- and while it has its own interests, Israel's security is deeply entwined with the strategic choices the United States makes, which is what this Iran debate is about. 

Israel, under Netanyahu's leadership, seems to want to drive a dynamic in which it demonstrates its power by compelling the President to attack Iran on its behalf, to set up triggers and red-lines, and railroad track that lead to a binary choice of bombing Iran or acquiescing to and appeasing a new nuclear weapons power.  This is neither in Israel's real interests -- nor America's. 

Obama tries to convey this stating that Iran is "self-interested", i.e. rational.  He says that over the last three decades, Iran's leadership has demonstrated that it does care about the regime's survival and is sensitive to the opinions of their citizens and disturbed by Iran's general global isolation.

Obama states:

They know, for example, that when
these kinds of sanctions are applied, it puts a world of hurt on them.
They are able to make decisions based on trying to avoid bad outcomes
from their perspective. So if they're presented with options that lead
to either a lot of pain from their perspective, or potentially a better
path, then there's no guarantee that they can't make a better decision.
But what Obama seems not to understand in the well-meaning description of his attempted Iran strategy is that he is actually creating a railroad track to disaster.  He conveys in the interview a disinterest in containment, suggesting that Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon changes the world and triggers a rampant and dangerous proliferation in an unstable part of the global neighborhood. 

Not all nuclear bombs are the same.  Israel's 200 plus thermonuclear warheads are not simple fission devices and have a destructive capacity that could seriously end Iran as a functioning state.  Iran, even if it were to produce a nuclear warhead tomorrow, would have none of the destructive capacity that Israel could rain down on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Anthony Cordesman, David Albright and others have done extremely important and useful, admittedly Stangelovian analyses of what a back-and-forth firing exchange of nuclear weapons would mean for both states.  As Cordesman told me recently, Israel would survive fine -- Iran would be devastated.

Many analysts believe that Iran's appetite for either a nuclear weapons capacity or a Japan-like "near nuke" capacity (meaning it has the potential but does not actually build the systems) would help provide Iran with a shield behind which it could protect itself while then continuing to operate global, transnational terror networks with impunity.  Perhaps this is true -- or perhaps three decades of paranoia about American calls for regime change in Iran have hard-wired the place to want anything that solves its security dilemma.  I see both tracks as having merit.

That said, what Obama is doing in this interview and in his needy solicitation of American Jewish community and Israeli citizen support is the opposite of where he started his interview with Jeffrey Goldberg:  :"I...don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are."

But he did.  Obama essentially is saying in this interview that Iran is one of the top five foreign policy concerns of his since moving into the White House, that he is attempting to organize a pressure-based effort to cause pain for Iran's leaders and move it to a different course, and that he won't accept failure -- that he will squeeze and surround and bomb (if needed) Iran to compel it never to acquire nuclear weapons.  That's not strategy.  Obama is overplaying the endgame and creating expectations that if sanctions don't work -- which they often and usually don't -- that he will bomb the country.  This is irresponsible and harmful to American and Israeli and broad Middle Eastern interests. 

Brent_Scowcroft.jpgObama needs to call former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft and have a long chat.  President Obama, Tom Donilon, Denis McDonough and other members of the NSC team often reference Scowcroft as one of their north stars on strategic policy -- but word is that the President has rarely connected with the sage strategist.   And then the President should check in with Zbigniew Brzezinski who could help the President understand the chess board in front of him a bit better.

Both would tell him that it is a mistake for a US President to constrain himself to two choices -- and he should keep his powder entirely dry.  He should not be telegraphing key red lines to Netanyahu who has been one of his global adversaries and antagonists -- who has been the key reason why so many Israelis and members of the American Jewish community have doubts about Obama's seriousness and resolve about Israel's core security. 

Netanyahu has done more to create global doubts about Obama's toughness as the result of the Obama-Netanyahu skirmish over the further expansion of Israeli settlements during the fragile, early efforts to move Israel-Palestine peace talks forward.  Netanyahu became the Krushchev to Obama's Kennedy -- and Obama, to this day, is struggling to look strong when he's in the same room or engaged with Israel's pugnacious prime minister.

Brzezinski.jpgJeffrey Goldberg's interview with Obama was serious and reasoned -- but the one area that I think he missed, or didn't give Obama a chance to unload on Israel's strategic mistake in not doing more on the Palestine peace effort. 

What didn't come out in this interview is what happens the day after the US might bomb Iran; or better yet, if Israel bombs Iran.  Given what we have seen in the Arab spring, which Arab governments will crumble and which will survive after they see an American or Israel strike against Iran? 

My sense is that the Arab street will churn, that the depth and breadth of Islamic political movements will grow.  I've often said that US security commitments to Israel are like a New Orleans levy -- working fine for the time being -- but beware a massive storm.

Israel's failure to do more to resolve a serious and sustained peace with Palestinians has demonstrated how it has undermined its own long term security interests with short-sighted, impulsively narrow obsession with territorial expansion.   This pugnacious disinterest in doing anything to change the Palestinian status quo undermines even luke-warm support for Israel in the region among Arab citizens and limits the ability of realpolitik-driven Arab governments from doing too much to embrace Israel's concerns, even if the many Sunni governments in the region largely fear Iran's rise as well.

President Obama should have used this interview to counsel Israelis about the strategic myopia of their government.

Obama told Goldberg that "we've got Israel's back."  What Obama failed to ask is whether "Israel has America's back." 

If Israel worked harder at achieving regional peace, if it did less to undermine the perception of American power and the capabilities of President Obama, if it put options on the table other than a desperate need to know when the US would 'bomb' Iran, then Israel might have America's back. 

But there is little indication that Israel is shifting its behavior despite the uncertainties brought by the Arab spring and the rise of political Islamic movements around it.  A kinetic, direct military confrontation with Iran could actually produce the nightmare Israel and the US want to avoide -- a completely alienated, isolated Iran whose nuclear program is delayed but eventually achieved and scores to settle.

-- Steve Clemons is Washington Editor at Large at The Atlantic, where this post first appeared. Clemons can be followed on Twitter at @SCClemons

 

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My Atlantic colleague Jeffrey Goldberg just scored ...
My Atlantic colleague Jeffrey Goldberg just scored ...
 
 
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01:02 PM on 03/05/2012
Syria + Iran. Worst countries in the world

Thank goodness for the humanity of the Jewish state :

Israel offers to send humanitarian aid to Syrian civilians

 
Acting under instructions of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Liberman, the MFA Deputy Director General for International Organizations and the United Nations Eviatar Manor contacted the International Committee of the Red Cross and suggested that Israel transfer humanitarian aid to Syria under Red Cross auspices. The Committee’s representatives in Israel stated that they will respond with an appropriate reply once they have examined the population’s needs and requirements.
12:57 PM on 03/05/2012
But bowing to the Saudi king is ok. Or throwing Israel under a bus in Egypt or refuse to set foot on Israeli soil while he's next door

What a joke
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Relpo Miraculous
Psychobiological Anthropology
05:51 PM on 03/04/2012
All regimes in the Arab world have Islam as a state religion, except for Syria. It stands out for not saying it is an Islamic state ... The closest thing to democracy (in the Arab world) is Syria.

The pandering and puffery comes from the people who defend the Arab Spring - not Obama.
10:50 AM on 03/04/2012
GOOD MORNING!!! MY FELLOW HOMO SAPIENS WHICH MEANS THE SPECIES WHO IS WISE.
American troops will now become a target of every Muslim in Afghanistan no matter what side they are on because of the accidental burning of the Koran. There is no good reason for America's troops to remain in Afghanistan and become targets of every enraged Muslim and anyone who says otherwise is a damn liar.
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legaleyeleft
Cons want Somalia here at home
12:15 AM on 03/04/2012
Israel is having it's hand at their own set of W neocons. May god save us all......
12:05 AM on 03/04/2012
The cost of our close, dated cold-war era relationship with Israel VASTLY outweighs any benefits at this point. Contrary to what the Likud party and it's AIPAC slackies will tell you, Israel is in no existential threat from Iran or any other country in the region at this point. The US needs to slowly back away from this hostile, reckless country and focus it's attention on truly important allies like Turkey. The POTUS should enter into high-level secret negotiations with Iran who all rhetoric aside knows it has far too much to lose by attacking Israel. Iran has much more to gain from cooperation with the US and would be the preeminent power in the gulf for the foreseeable future. Israel is the most dangerous country to middle East stability not Iran. If Israel attacks unilaterally we should stand back, let the US Fifth Fleet keep the straits open and watch them get pounded by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and possibly even Syria and Russia. Hopefully they learn the lesson that they don't hold sway over US foreign policy and that the US has other options....
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JonBFertippton
11:53 PM on 03/03/2012
Netanyahu's talk of war on Iran is rejected by a big majority of Israelis. To talk about Israel wanting to get President Obama to bomb Iran is inaccurate. Netanyahu's own military and intelligence people are warning that bombing Iran would be much riskier than it is logical. Even if completely successful, such an operation would only delay Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. If there is a possibility that Iran at present is not building such a weapon, an attack would cause it to react by building or obtaining one as quickly as possible, for sure. 

What Netanyahu is doing by talking so much about attacking Iran is inserting himself into the American presidential election process. He is very eager to see Republicans in the White House again because Republicans have given him everything he wanted and agreed to his every wish. By threatening an attack on Iran without notice to the USA he is trying to make Pres. Obama look weak and warning him that he (Bibi) can reshuffle the election cards in the USA at will. Imagine such an attack on Iran by Israel without American input at the height of the election, in September or October. A time bomb.

By he way, Israeli President Shimon Peres recently stated very publicly that there has been no President ever with whom Israel has been more satisfied than Barack Obama. Peres' intelligent and calm voice should be heeded in the USA.

Netanyahu is playing some very dangerous political games, with domestic politics both in Israel and the USA. He deserves to have his fingers severely rapped by both Democrats and Republicans. But don't count on the latter to be reasonable. They are presently only too happy to be having a love affair with the extreme rightwing of Israeli politics.

This is a very sensitive situation full of danger, one that could lead to an international conflagration. It is important to keep cool, as Pres. Obama can do best, and de-code what Netanyahu really means when he continually threatens to make war on Iran. His bluster needs to be rejected forcefully.
01:29 AM on 03/04/2012
Agree totally. Clear case of Likud/AIPAC attempting to keep their waning albeit profound influence on US domestic and foreign policy alive. However, I do believe we should call their bluff and let them stand alone if they unilaterally hit Iran. We need only keep the straits open and let Israel feel the chill of international condemnation and the pain of Iranian, Hezbollah, Hamas even Syrian and Russian armaments pounding into their prized infrastructure. Netanyahu is easily the most dangerous man in the Middle Eastern saga and to the many good people of Israel...
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JonBFertippton
11:48 AM on 03/04/2012
I can't agree with what you write. 

Things are much more complicated than a simple placing of Likud and AIPAC on an enemy's list. As I wrote, Israelis are mostly not in agreement with Netanyahu's stance on Iran. Nor, for that matter, on how to reach an agreement with the Palestinians. But he is in power. He is also not the worst possible ally for the USA since he spent many formative years in Pennsylvania, speaks fluent English, and is familiar with and favorably disposed to the ins and outs of American politics and needs in general.

Your suggestion that the USA allow Israel to hit Iran and then "let them stand alone" is not realistic. Nixon tried that in 1973 and had to change his tune. It is a big illusion on your part to think that the USA would ever permit "Iranian, Hezbollah, Hamas, Syrian [!] and Russian armaments" to pound Israel's "prized infrastructure", as you put it with a bit of what I detect as Schadenfreude-in-advance-of-the-fact (which will never occur).

To say that Netanyahu is "the most dangerous man" in a Middle East containing Assad, Nasrallah, Achmadinejad, and various terrorists is about as out of tune with reality as it gets. Netanyahu is a conservative who is in coalition with other conservatives more extreme than himself. That he is in cohoots with the ever more conservative Republicans should be obvious. Given that situation, President Obama is the best alternative for keeping Netanyahu in line and preventing a meltdown in the Middle East. Believing that the whole thing boils down to a Likud/AIPAC conspiracy against the USA is just as blind and useless as most other conspiracy theories.
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the81kid
10:16 AM on 03/04/2012
It's amazing that so many think Obama is anti-Israel: his administration could not be MORE Israel.
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BcemXAHA
אני כלום בלעדיהם
12:48 PM on 03/05/2012
Factually inaccurate.
11:00 PM on 03/03/2012
Is Pres. Obama a dove or a hawk? Your article seems to paint him with both brushes. I have to agree with the President that he doesn't bluff - just ask OBL. However, I have to say that we do not need to get in another conflict in the Middle East. Conflicts are drawn out affairs with no end in sight. IMO Wars on the other hand have the end goal of decimating your enemy and weakening their power.
10:56 PM on 03/03/2012
As Ahmahdinijad, Hamas, and Hezbollah have clearly stated, their goal is the destruction of Israel.

How can anyone negotiate anything while those despicable proclamations still stand?
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da6675
12:59 AM on 03/04/2012
Proclamations are not the same thing as having the ability and will to back them up. There are extremists in Israel who call for the destruction of Palestinians, we just don't hear that from our mainstream media.
Iran has not invaded another nation for 200 years. Knowing that Israel has 200-300 nukes, it's easy to see why other Mideast nations want nukes as a deterrent. It's always a good idea to remember exactly which nation is the only one to ever use nukes!
01:35 AM on 03/04/2012
The difference being, in Israel the extremists are held in check, while in many other Middle East countries the extremists are heroes, and appointed to the highest political offices.
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BcemXAHA
אני כלום בלעדיהם
12:49 PM on 03/05/2012
Iran might not have invaded officially but her hands are not clean! talk to the Kurds, speak with the Iraqis.
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05:01 AM on 03/04/2012
It is real simple to negotiate with anyone.

Just sit down and LISTEN to them and then offer compromises.

As for the destruction of Israel, until ti actually happens we should just ignore the rhetoric. If they really, really mean it, there is nothing the US or Israel can do - it will happen one way of another.

One way to minimize the chances of the destruction of Israel is for Israel to NEGOTIATE (there is that word again) and do what is necessary to live in the neighborhood they have invaded, because it is completely impossible for Israel to remain undefeated forever (it has NEVER happened in the 50,000 years humans have existed, so it is very, very unlikely now).
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notmisaacm
That which is attributed to malice is often explai
10:46 PM on 03/03/2012
I read Goldberg's article differently. Obama seemed to be saying that he wanted to stop Iran from gaining nuclear weapons for many reasons, one of which was Israel's safety. President Obama seems to know that it is not only Israel's safety that will be compromised by unstable powers like Iran gaining control over nuclear weapons. One only has to look at the dangers posed by unstable countries like Pakistan and No. Korea.

Anti-Israel writers like Clemons, always ready to blame tiny Israel for all of the problems of the vast middle east, read Obama's reasoned argument as some sort of capitulation to AIPAC. It's not. Obama knows better than the rest of us how dangerous Iran is, it is not AIPAC that is causing him to act as he does, it is reasoned analysis.
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gibranII
seeking peace through equality
11:53 PM on 03/03/2012
Israel has itself to blame or at least thier leadership[which places all Israelis at peril] the problem is not israelis.. it is their leadership here and there.. here with the neocon war mongers and their lackies in congress and there with the Government of Israel attacking their own moderates and the peace camps.. we all do not want a nuke filled region anymore than Iran wants Israels nuke to go away too. bothsides misguided and stupid leadership is needing this crisis to divert from their own issues. BIBI is the problem .. and next week he will get his usual standing ovation and bows of servitude.. but the rest of America while standing with Israel should not blindly go to war.
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notmisaacm
That which is attributed to malice is often explai
12:33 PM on 03/04/2012
How is it Israel's fault that the Iranian leadership wants to wipe them off the map? As for the Israeli peace camp, it was Arafat's rejection of Barak's peace offer, and start of another war, that killed the Israeli peace camp. The Israeli people saw, as I finally did, that it didn't matter what you offered the Palestinians, if it didn't include the destruction of Israel, it wasn't going to be enough.

Maybe you could call the Iranian peace camp, or the Arab peace camp and ask their opinion. If you can find them. They are either in jail or a local cemetery.
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Aaron Watkins
À Rebours
10:43 PM on 03/03/2012
The Iranaians have been stalling pretending to negotiatie on this issue for over 10 years now. The whole silly perpetual cycle keeps repeating but we seem to forget because of low attention spans brought on by texting every 30 seconds perhaps- UN administers harsh sanctions against Iran, Iran goes to the negotiation table for a year or two, Iran has a hissy fit, and Iran continues to build their nuclear weapons. Rinse and repeat, this has happened 3 times over now. I hope the President will be able to negotiate something from Iran but I doubt it.

There is nothing new this time around.
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Aaron Watkins
À Rebours
10:32 PM on 03/03/2012
Obama has utilized the position of his friend Palestinian American author Rashid Khalidi who has called for the removal of all support of Israel and applying as much pressure as possible to force them into the two state system. Evidence of this is the unilateral position the President has been pandering to Israel as some kind of crazy "negotiating". This "negotiating" so far has entailed demanding that Israel stop all current settlements and withraw from others. That is not such a bad plan, if it helps bring peaceful negotiations. But, what was Israel offered in return? Nothing. Not assurances of safety, not state recognition, not any further plans of negotiations-nothing. In dealing with Israel and the Palestinian contigency it is hugely ignorant that one can just demand Israel to do what you ask. Everything is negotiated and the President appears to be a school boy playing a game of Risk.

He has visited Egypt several times, Turkey, and several other Arabic countries to give support of these countries during negotiations with Israel. In Turkey Barack Hussein Obama II offered a speech to a country that still hasn't admitted to killing over a million Armenian christians (its illegal to even mention it), apologizing for our actions against muslims.

How many times has the President visited Israel? None

What has he accomplished with this type of unilateral negotiating? Nothing

Who negotiates in such an ignorant, unilateral, and ineffective manner? President Obama
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gibranII
seeking peace through equality
12:00 AM on 03/04/2012
your analysis is so far of center it tilted to the RIGHT.. Obama has given in to the pressures of the Lobby and the congress on Israel and the whole world knows it.. Palestine's freedom from oppression will result in peace but it will also mean that BIBI's dream of greater Israel will be lost..

Our president doesnt have to visit Israel to be supportive.. he just has our congress's annual indoctrination trip .. No president has done more for the security of Israel since Truman... and you neocon lovers cant stop until we are bankrupt and have lost all credibility as an honest broker in the region.. read some history.. this type of conflict feeds the right in Israel and the US...and is why we are no closer to justice for any of the people in the region.. Again you wouldnt understand that negotiation is not dictating all the objectives.. it involves a clear mind .. something our president has done so well.. but if you want war elect the republicans-Likudites
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Aaron Watkins
À Rebours
12:36 AM on 03/04/2012
Sigh, the same old sad lies. The biggest lobby in Washington is the Arab lobby. Who was it that flew out of the country right after 9/11 again?
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Aaron Watkins
À Rebours
12:37 AM on 03/04/2012
You haven't really produced any relative or salient points. Do you get your opinions from the Protocols Of The Elders Of Zion?
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05:04 AM on 03/04/2012
Israel "negotiates in such an ignorant, unilateral, and ineffective manner" all the time, that is why Israel has no peace.

As for visiting Israel, why should Obama go to that terrible place?
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Aaron Watkins
À Rebours
05:22 AM on 03/04/2012
If he wants to find a peaceful accord between the Israeli's and the Palestinians he would need to visit Israel. I guess he prefers politics over peace.
10:11 PM on 03/03/2012
meow, war is such an endowment, i wonder, who gets to fight the next one? not those who profit, no doubt
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doughnut70
09:53 PM on 03/03/2012
Israel is not an American client state. We give them a lot in return for their help in the fight against global terrorism. They happen to be on the front line and catch it a little worse because of anti-semitism, but if you think the Iranians can get nuclear weapons without the rest of the Arab world demanding them, you are kidding yourself and if you buy into the myth that we keep Israel afloat with out money and don't get more back in return than we spend, you really have no clue about what is going on. Just the Israeli's giving back the Suez canal so their actions didn't interefere with our oil shipments pays for more than anything we have given them.
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pciorlandosales
have come to chew bubble gum and kick ash
11:45 PM on 03/03/2012
Where do you get that Israel gave us the Suez Canal? deciding the future of the Sinai peninsula. Israel agreed to withdraw its armed forces from the Sinai, evacuate its 4,500 civilian inhabitants, and restore it to Egypt in return for normal diplomatic relations with Egypt, guarantees of freedom of passage through the Suez Canal and other nearby waterways (such as the Straits of Tiran), and a restriction on the forces Egypt could place on the Sinai peninsula, especially within 20–40 km from Israel.The agreement also resulted in the United States committing to several billion dollars worth of annual subsidies to the governments of both Israel and Egypt, subsidies which continue to this day, and are given as a mixture of grants and aid packages committed to purchasing U.S. materiel. From 1979 (the year of the peace agreement) to 1997, Egypt received military aid of US$1.3 billion annually, which also helped modernize the Egyptian military.[18] (This is beyond economic, humanitarian, and other aid, which has totaled more than US$25 billion.) Eastern-supplied until 1979, Egypt now received American weaponry such as the M1A1 Abrams Tank, AH-64 Apache gunship and the F-16 fighter jet. In comparison, Israel has received $3 billion annually since 1985 in grants and military aid packages
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doughnut70
05:49 AM on 03/10/2012
In 1957 in response to US diplomatic requests and after several Arab leaders said publicly it could lead to permanent peace, Israel removed it's troops from the Suez Canal which they controlled after one of the myriad battles of the time.
08:25 PM on 03/03/2012
The hypocrisy of the Israeli state is mind blowing. They continue to say they want peace with the Palestinians while still building settlements in disputed areas. They are making plans to attack Iraq for pursuing nuclear technology, while having hundreds of undeclared nuclear weapons themselves.
The US continues to align itself with the wishes and wants of the Israeli state, even when the two countries strategic aims are different. How long will the tail continue to wag the dog? It is high time the
US woke up and started to exert real pressure on "Yahu" and his cohorts for justice and human rights for ALL people that live in the middle east and not just the ones that live between the disputed borders of the state of Israel.
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doughnut70
09:56 PM on 03/03/2012
They have never said that they wanted peace in the way you imply. They simply have said that by any precedent in World Affairs, they are entitled to the land they currently occupy, but if the Arabs will agree to some type of peace settlement that includes recognition of Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state, that they will consider sacrificing land (along with the expectation that Arab countries will also sacrifice land) for a homeland for the people currently known as Palestinians. They are under no obligation to do so.
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05:06 AM on 03/04/2012
Apparently you missed the international treaty Israel signed after WW2 that says they are NOT entitled to any land beyond what they had in 1947.
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BcemXAHA
אני כלום בלעדיהם
01:01 PM on 03/05/2012
Factually inaccurate. US aligns itself with Israel precisely because their strategic goals are literally identical. Education is your friend, seek it to save yourself a red face.