Obama and Ted Kennedy See Plans Foiled as Caroline Withdraws?

At noon today EST, New York Governor Dennis Paterson will announce that Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand will succeed Hillary Clinton's recently vacated U.S. Senate seat. But until forty-eight hours ago, most still had their money on Caroline Kennedy, daughter of America's most iconic modern president, getting the nod.

Kennedy withdrew her name from consideration for "personal reasons." Now that she has removed herself from the race, one can hope that the media and other gawkers will leave her personal matters alone and move on. If she was in the game to get the Senate seat, her entire life was fair game -- but now that she has stepped back, I believe she has rights of privacy that should endure.

But the question that is legitimate and remains is what machinations drove Kennedy to reach for this Senate seat. What was she thinking -- and how did this fit into the game plans of two of America's biggest political kingpins, Barack Obama and the ailing Ted Kennedy? And did she end up getting derailed by the Clinton machine?

Caroline Kennedy's flirtation with this appointment animated deep tensions in American politics over the question of political aristocracy and dynasties. Names like Gore, Dole, Clinton, Bush, Salazar, Udall, Cuomo, Kennedy frequently appear in American politics because of brothers, fathers and sons, nephews and spouses building out the family political machine. It's useful to remember many decades ago, that actress and feminist provocateur Tallulah Bankhead's father, for instance, was Speaker of the House of Representatives and her nephew and grandfather both U.S. Senators. And thus while family dynasties have always been a part of the American political scene, throwing aristocracy in the face of voters reeks of the kind of nobility that Americans 'thought' they threw off in the American Revolution.

Kennedy, loved by so many because of her own good deeds for schools and social causes but also because of just being the daughter of JFK and Jackie, came close to ruining her own personal brand by appearing hungry for political appointment. Of course, she is a Kennedy -- and the Kennedy's are known for their pursuit of power -- but Caroline was supposed to be different. Her own brand seemed more pure than her family brand. So this raises the question of why she threw her hat in the ring.

Most writers limited their attention to the surface explanation she provided when she announced her interest in the Senate appointment. Kennedy said that her work for the Obama campaign stirred in her a desire to do more -- and doing more for the public was what the Kennedy family operation had always, in her words, committed itself to. She said that she was ready in this phase of her life to move to a new career and that she was comfortable moving out of the shadows and into the public spotlight -- though this was difficult to tell in her tightly scripted early press events in New York that couldn't help but remind of the over-handled, over-scripted roll out of Sarah Palin.

But other machinations may have been at play as well.

Barack Obama, who admits to a close personal friendship with Caroline Kennedy after their work together on his campaign, is probably the best political 'mergers and acquisitions' guy in the business. The story of Obama is not just that his unique brand, background and DNA charmed the nation achieving a landmark political victory. Obama has the preternatural ability to acquire political franchises and morph them together, changing their character and leadership and making them his own. Obama started with the Daley franchise in Chicago and then built into that the Daschle franchise, followed by the Kennedy franchise, and is now working very hard to absorb the Clinton political machine which is larger and more potentially dangerous to Obama than any of the others.

Obama has Rahm Emanuel, Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod managing the Chicago wing for him -- and then hired many of Tom Daschle's key people including Pete Rouse and Denis McDonough. Daschle himself is in the picture though his office is in the basement of the White House and while close to Oval office power may prefer to be closer. There is a saying that "those who supported Obama got a President and those who supported Hillary got a job" -- as many of her loyal followers are popping up with key positions throughout the government while many of those who helped Obama from the beginning of his candidacy are still in the cold. And then there is Kennedy -- and that big family brand that connects with so many in the country, particularly in labor union America. Ted Kennedy will soon die -- and Obama (and many other of the Kennedys) want to see Caroline in the political game in a high profile way to provide leadership for the tens of thousands of capable political hands that Kennedy's machine has produced to be loyal both to her stewardship of the family operation and then loyal to Obama.

Some of Ted Kennedy's loyal retainers have conveyed to me privately that the Senator -- who became the responsible flag-bearer for the Kennedy clan after both John F. and Robert Kennedy's assassinations -- believed that Caroline needed to stand up and play the role he had given his deteriorating health. But the plan Ted "may have had", they say, had little to do with the New York Senate seat. It had to do with succeeding Obama in 2016.

The game plan -- whether real or fantasy -- is intriguing. It goes something like this. Caroline Kennedy would be appointed now to the Senate. She would perform well above the very low expectations many had for her and win handily the seat in the 2010 mid-term race in which that Senate seat needs to be contested again. She would then be in place until 2016. Ted Kennedy's view "may be" that Caroline would instantly out-shine Hillary Clinton in the eyes of New York voters and in the American political scene and that in 2016, Caroline Kennedy would be 59 while Hillary Clinton would be 69.

I have no idea whether Ted Kennedy owned this narrative. All I know is that his friends and many key pillars of Kennedy Land believed that something along these lines is what animated Ted's highly strategic approach to Caroline's political future.

Now, Caroline Kennedy is out of the running for this particularly political contest -- but she may be back.

I have advocated that the Obama team offer her a high profile and distinguished Ambassadorship. Perhaps to London where her grandfather, Joseph Kennedy, once served -- or perhaps to France, which her mother loved so much. In such a spot, she'd have an opportunity to show she was more than a brand name and could contribute to the substantive interests and welfare of the United States. And then perhaps run in an election for something big -- and perhaps even win. We will always have political aristocrats in America, but the barrier that should always be imposed for those who are inheritors of political fortune is that they actually be elected -- not appointed -- to the nation's highest offices.

Caroline Kennedy may yet be a factor in American politics. Obama would love it for his own reasons -- and so would the powerful political franchise that Ted Kennedy helped build.

And while Hillary Clinton, the woman Caroline tried to succeed in the Senate, is now Secretary of State -- it is clear that Obama still has some work to do to get the keys to the Bill/Hillary political franchise -- and that this derailment of Caroline Kennedy removes for the time being a threat to Hillary's longer term political interests.

-- Steve Clemons is publisher of the popular political blog, The Washington Note.

 

Follow Steve Clemons on Twitter: www.twitter.com/SCClemons

Comments

[Insightful]

The person who deserved to be awarded the senate seat was Andrew Cuomo. Ted Kennedy pushed Obama into the presidency in order to further his family dynasty agenda. Hillary Clinton was the best choice we had but Big Ted jumped in and put an inexperienced novice in office for his own political gain. The best ticket for our country was Clinton/Obama. In 2016 Obama would have been ready. These family dynasties have gotten out of hand. The Bush/Kennedy dynasty needs to end. I am sure Caroline can do some other job that will benefit the country. If she wants to run for a high office let her work for it not be appointed by favoritism. It is wrong.

[PigLipstick]

Steve, your initial comments concerning political dynasties is the real issue. Caroline Kennedy's emergence from private life is a last gasp attempt by the remaining hierarchy of the Kennedy family to continue their 70+ year legacy. As long as we continue to elect political leaders based on their rock-star appeal or family brand recognition, we can't really complain about the alienation of the citizenry by their government.

For 230+ years various patriotic Americans have been fighting behind the scenes to expand the promises of the U.S. Constitution to every citizen, not just the wealthy and influential ones. For example, several generations fought to expand the right to vote from the sole province of wealthy white land owners to every citizen. There will never come a time when the citizens of this country, or any Democracy, can take their leadership for granted. As with this recent election, we only enjoy the benefits of our constitutionally guaranteed rights when we all turn out to vote in a process that is free from corruption !

[iluvcodandwhitepointers]

The apoclyptic visions of media shots of kennedys is probably as bad for Caroline Kennedy as it is for those erstwhile considering them. But percieve the other and one finds the daughter of a famous American family long before Kennedys were thought of - The Bouviers- a solid peoples. The Soviet State was always considered by US political scientists to manifest wisdoms [outside gulags] and in Brezshnev to Gorbachev years because they kept their elders and their wise in the decision process. If Caroline Kennedy Bouvier could leave all the hype -- she would bring a lot of sense and history and knowledge including what causes disasters and sadness to the political arena of America which at the moment is sitting very quiet while two of ots main banks citicorp and bank of america show credit defaults sixty times the 90 billion afforded to therm via parliament of USA -- and this will be a tepid amount if Morgans bank soon joins them .
Caroline Kennedy could show her history and empathy in assisting via parliament the peoples of USA as they the peoples of USA might be hurt very badly in this forecast of doom-- as will USA,s allies

[lynettema]

"As for Hillary in '16, here's the truth: we generally prefer younger, rather than older, politicians. Reagan is an exception."

The voters learned that you just might get a President with health problems (Alzheimers) when you elect someone as old as Reagan.

[OtayPanky]

I'm not convinced you can make an honest, non-partisan case for Reagan having Alzheimers while he was still in office - but that's besides the point.

What's more to the point is that older women, generally, are going to get a less favorable reception by the electorate than older men. It's not fair, but it's true.

What we're seeing here is the dismantling of the only three national political dynasties in this country. The Bushes are done for now - and Georgie Boy did such a thorough job of wrecking the country that his brother Jeb may not have a shot at the presidency, ever. The Clintons are done - at least until Chelsea decides she wants to follow her parents - and that's at least a 20 year timeline. And the Kennedys are just done, period. There's not a single Kennedy kid on the horizon who has anything close to the "right stuff" to run for president.

While occassionally a legacy kid does an outstanding job (Al Gore comes to mind) on balance legacy politics isn't good for the country.

[PigLipstick]

The British finally learned their lesson after centuries of rule by the monarchy, incest tended to produce more incompetent leaders in each successive generation. That's why the British Monarchy is now basically a symbolic institution and the British people are increasingly tired of being taxed to support their opulent life style. Same holds true for our political monarchy that is increasingly producing dumber offspring. GWB is the best example of a family dynasty that has lowered it's quality standards in each successive generation !

[lynettema]

I read the very long article attached to this post and don't know any more than before I read it. Why didn't Paterson appoint earlier? He wouldn't have had as much fun. But he handled it poorly and I am guessing his term will be 2 years. I am not from NY, but I am disappointed that Caroline is not going to be their Senator. We can speculate, but we are not going to know what happened and no one seems to want to be forth coming.

[lj9283]

He would have missed the all interviews on all the major networks on inauguration day if he made the appointment early.

[RonMar]

Joining in the speculation about what happened and why that Clemons started, here is my take:
That Obama owed the Kennedys for their support of him was evident when Ted and Caroline endorsed Obama. Obama needed to keep Hillary and the Clinton faction under control. So make Hillary his SecState, boxed in to his foreign policy views and serving at his whim, then replace her as senator with Caroline to pay his debt and further the Kennedy dynasty. Obama comes out the winner, and there is no taint of the pay for play a la Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Gov. Paterson did not go along with the scheme for what appears to be many good reasons. That is not likely to bode well for Paterson’s political future.

[Lindy222]

"Merging franchises"??!!

And that's different from politics... how?

[naluca]

Sure bet: Obama will find something for her to do. . .

[OtayPanky]

Isn't it obvious that you need to have a certain kind of personality profile to run for president, much less be the president?

I'm not talking about policy posititions, or even moral character. I'm talking about basic personality traits like resilience, persistence and competitiveness. It also helps to be an extrovert, because this is a people-person position built on a foundation of networking (though there have been introverts occassionally in the office)

If you don't have those qualities in your make-up, there's just no way.

Caroline seems like a very nice woman, and I am glad she, along with Ted, supported Barack in the primaries. I'm not sure how much of a difference it made, but it sure didn't hurt.

That said, is there anyone who seriously believes she has these personality traits? Or that she could - as a 51 year old adult - begin the long and difficult process of cultivating them for an uncertain, practically impossible goal only 8 years away?

It's ludicrous on the face of it.

As for Hillary in '16, here's the truth: we generally prefer younger, rather than older, politicians. Reagan is an exception.

By '16 there will be a whole new bench of dems ready to run - hopefully both men and women. And a lot of people who liked HIllary this time around will be dead, because her demographic was largely the older folks.

The Bush-Clinton lock on the White House has been broken.

[lj9283]

The final tome of fiction on a now dead story.

Just make it up if if don't have facts or a story.

The new journalism, story line over fact.

Nice.

[Roose]

I love Caroline and although I would have preferred Andrew Cuomo because of his grit and experience (which is going to be needed to run against Peter King), Caroline would have preferable to this woman who sounds just like Joe Lieberman and will be following orders from that puppet sock Al D'Amato.

[glorialovelace]

How does she sound like Joe Lieberman? Please explain.

[lynettema]

She seems to have a RW bent. Another Blue Dog?

[meko]

She's pro-choice, pro-science, pro-union, pro equal human rights.

Not everything is black and white.

[longislandlol]

We will see what NY will vote on in the gov. and senate upcoming elections-- a backlash to Paterson- or a quiet acceptance to his selection-- that said-- the words"quiet acceptance" may be oxymorons in NY

[longislandlol]

My friends (liberals from NY City ) and I believe it was Paterson who ended his career-- Caroline was the victim-- she will rise like the phoenix-- she will be OK- but he--- by spending 2 months bungling- and not being decisive has shown democratic voters in NY that it is time he is challenged in the primary by Andrew Cuomo-- but Andrew may want to challenge Gillebrand-- in any case -- the way he bungled this will only lead to his defeat as gov. and possibly open the door to Guiliani winning over whoever the dems put up--

[Roose]

I don't think Guiliani will win, his 911 days have come to an end. Andrew Cuomo is a seasoned politician and a real Democrat and would give all of them a run for their money.

Andrew Cuomo is the man to beat!

[Melissa]

Good God, this woman can barely finish a thought. Maybe there was a reason she kept a low profile all of these years. I don't think Paterson has a chance to win, it will be either Cuomo or Rudy.

[glorialovelace]

How can you dismiss somebody like Gillibrand -- whose academic laurels far exceed Ms. Kennedy's -- as somebody who can barely finish a though, when we have had a close escape from somebody who could not string together a coherent paragraph?

[lj9283]

Not Guiliani, George Pataki will make a run at what now has to be viewed by the Republicans as a very vulnerable seat.

The Republican Party has already pledged to spend 35 - 45 million to try to get this Senate Seat into the Republican Party, now they have their opening.

Ms Gillebrand better start fund raising tomorrow. She's got to raise 35-45 million for 2010, and then again 35-45 million for 2012.

That's a lot of rubber chicken dinners for an upstate Congress Person.

Has anyone asked her yet how often she's visited New York City, and the five boroughs?

How about Long Island?

Has she held meeting with local politicians downstate?

How can she know what their issues are?

[glorialovelace]

Since she used to live in NY-- during her Davis Polk days at least -- it's likely she knows her way around the boroughs.

Obviously, she'll need to become as closely familiar with downstate issues as she is with upstate issues.

I hope you're not saying that a New York Senate seat is reserved for NYC politicians only.

[bill76]

another thing-- hilary shouldn't worry about her long term interests. she's not an appealing candidate for president-- anybody with charisma would beat her out. also she will be 69 in 2016 and effectively too old for the presidency (yeah i know its sexist to say, but voters look at physical appearance, and for a woman 69 is too old).

[glorialovelace]

Speak for yourself, bill76. Maybe in 8 years, we can get J-Lo to run. Would that make you happy?

[breakingpoint]

I don't care where they send her - I don't know the women - what I do know is she is a Kennedy and she did some good work for NYC-PS - the one reason I could never support her in any public office is due to her roll as Chair of CPD and organization that undermines democracy.
http://jischinger.wordpress.com/2009/01/11/wake-up/

[Chopin]

Excellent web-link references -- Thanks to breakingpoint !

[Chopin]

I listened carefully to Bill Moyers' probing interview about the presidential debates and the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) referenced by you, bill76. That subject merits much wider discussion and participation here on Huffpost. In an oblique way, this is the ULTIMATE open online townhall debate forum, uncontrolled and uncensored by the CPD. (Well, maybe Huffpost does its own censoring/­screening.­) Discussions here do have some impact on presidential candidates selection.

It's not good democracy to have single-issue candidates, because the world today and its problems and solutions are much too complex, multi-dimensional, and interrelated to be left to rigid compartmen­talization into exclusive single-issues.

bill76, if you feel so strongly about CK's role on the CPD, perhaps you should elaborate on your reasons, and open up a relevant discussion here.

[Chopin]

Sorry, this is in reference to "breakingpoint", not bill76.

[Chopin]

Does anyone remember Mikhail Gorbachev? He transformed the SovietRussian Empire, because he came along when USSR was ripe for fundamental transformation --- its breakup. He served in a transitional caretaker role not of his own making. The major transformational forces set in motion preceded him, and continued long after he left the scene.

The American Empire is reaching similar advanced sclerotic stage of evolution. The economic state is in complete tatters. The immense superstructure accumulated over 5decades (the military-i­ndustrial-­political complex) cannot be dismantled.

Caroline is very different kind of unconventional political candidate. At this time, she cannot find good fit for her role and services. It's not more complicated than that. ... But 8years from now, who knows what USA and the global situation would look like?

President Obama will do his best to initiate the transformation of the AmericanEmpire. He would initiate "responsibility, accountability, transparency, maturity" in government. Sound like "glasnost" (openness) and "perestroika" (restructuring)? Would he succeed in more than just loosening imperial grip on LatinAmerica and MidEast? ... to the extent that LatinAmerican nationalism breaks out of orbit, and MidEast realigns with Eurasia?

It's reasonably credible that American people would find no useful role for female warrior in pantsuits as first female American president. When the time comes, it'll be complete wholesale rejection of bankrupt patriarchal societal values and organization.