Previously Unknown Hagel Letter Warns Rice of Russia Collision

In February 2008, Senator Chuck Hagel wrote to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, copied to Defense Secretary Robert Gates and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, warning that our policies with Kosovo, Serbia, and elsewhere in Europe could be brewing up a storm with Russia.

Here is the letter as a pdf, but I also post below.

Of particular note in Chuck Hagel's letter relating vaguely to autonomous provinces in Georgia:

. . .Across the board, officials are clearly concerned about the consequences -- including unintended and uncontrollable consequences -- of a Kosovar declaration of independence. This includes a former senior Russian official known for his pro-Western views, who told me that, "there is no way that one cannot view a Kosovar declaration of independence as anything but a precedent" for other similar conflicts.

Hagel also writes:

At a time when our relations with Russia are badly frayed, our military is overly engaged, we're dealing with serious fissures in NATO over Afghanistan, and European willingness to respond militarily to an outbreak of violence in Kosovo and the Balkans is uncertain, I urge you to proceed with caution, weighing carefully the potential implications of a diplomatic event that could stretch well beyond the Balkans.

We need to weigh our current policy against our strategic interests -- in the Balkans, in Europe, with Russia, and in a shared, international understanding of national sovereignty under international law. It is not at all clear to me that a unilateral settlement of Kosovo can provide a lasting, stable solution for this region. We must think through all of the complexities ofthe Kosovo issue, the grave risk of violence against Serb minorities in Kosovo, and how to avoid isolating and alienating Serbia.

This letter warns the administration that its actions in the Balkans ran the risk of triggering blowback from Russia -- and yet there is no evidence that the administration worried that Russia would exploit the model of Kosovo in other ways -- particularly as we saw Russia assert the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

While many US Senators write to the President and other cabinet officers on requests for consideration of this project or that, Chuck Hagel was regularly provoking the administration with sensible, realistic assessments about America's geostrategic choices and their consequences.

Many of these letters -- if not all -- seem to have been ignored. I have not been able as of yet to find a letter from Rice back to Senator Hagel -- but Hagel's letter is enough to show that the administration had more than adequate warning from Senate Foreign Relations Committee members that a Russia storm could be on the way.

-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note

Comments

[TRIATHLON]

SERBIA/KOSOVO THE ROAD TO ABKHAZIA/SOUTH OSSETIA (END PART)

Soviet Russia delivered a stark warning to Baltic, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, all the Central Asian states, and Caucasus regions, don't get too close to Washington, showing America's impotence and decay in power unable to respond to such a small crisis as the former Soviet Republic of Georgia and effectively demonstrating Soviet Russia's power in Europe, leaving all wondering about Russia's intentions right now.

[TRIATHLON]

SERBIA/KOSOVO THE ROAD TO ABKHAZIA/SOUTH OSSETIA ( PART THREE)

Besides thwarting clumsy attempt to further advance the (US/MIC) United States Military Industrial Complex, influence into Russia's Caucasian underbelly, Soviet Russia is calling there Chess Move, of calling back memories of (1924 & 1938) when small European countries were calling out in vain for Western help in fending off savage attacks. With the Chess Move of (1919-1920), when Germany was humbled and defeated the old empire, with the British skill of redrawing lines on maps, was broken up breaking up inventing new nations. In March (2008), The Former Soviet Republic of Georgia was notably alarmed by the quick and precedent-setting recognition of the autonomous region of Kosovo, Serbia as it declared its independence. As it opened the door and emboldened nationalist leaders supporters, in the autonomous states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and with Soviet Russian support too in fact breakaway from the former Soviet Republic of Georgia and press for their independence. Soviet Russia now asserts that the process works both ways and should continue, and more nationalities -- the Ossetia’s, the Abkhazia -- deserve self-determination, especially if they want to rejoin the Soviet Russian state.

[TRIATHLON]

SERBIA/KOSOVO THE ROAD TO ABKHAZIA/SOUTH OSSETIA (PART TWO)

Kosovo was never taught through there was no way that one could not view the Kosovar declaration of independence as anything but an across the board precedent setting unilateral act for other similar conflicts, leading to complex unintended and uncontrollable consequences, while not providing a lasting , stable solution for the region. Among those unstable problems remains the risk of violence against the Serb minorities in Kosovo and how to avoid isolating and alienating Serbia, and the clouding of the international understanding of national sovereignty under international law. And that action triggered a Soviet Russian storm of blowback, which exploited the Kosovo model, when Soviet Russia asserted the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

[TRIATHLON]

SERBIA/KOSOVO THE ROAD TO ABKHAZIA/SOUTH OSSETIA (PART ONE)

When Russia was still in chaos, weak, humbled, less powerful, and with wounded pride caused by the treatment of Serbia during the (1999) Kosovo War, when the (US/MIC) United States Military Industrial Complex, bombed Serbia one of Soviet Russia's closest and oldest ally’s into submission and did so to send a half-baked and ill-conceived utterly useless message to the Islamic world that while we might favor the (51st) State of the (US/MIC) Israel, (99%) nine-nine percent, of the time, once in a while we would throw the Muslim world a (1%) one percent scrap. America's actions in Serbia never were about halting ethnic cleansing. If that had been the motivation of the (US/MIC) that was bombing bridges in heart of Serbia taking sides in a civil war, would have bombed Rwanda then and would be in Darfur now actually stopping genocides. The West had further humiliated Soviet Russia recognizing the breakaway state of Kosovo

But a Rump Battalion of Soviet Russian Airborne Paratroopers did provide a rare moment of pride which didn't accomplish much, though it did infuriate then (NATO) North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Commander Wes Clark, by seizing control of Kosovo's only airport, in Pristina. And in (2008), Soviet Russia was forced to stand by as Kosovo was given its independence. But unlike the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, Kosovo it doesn’t boarder Soviet Russia.

[TRIATHLON]

THE SOVIET RUSSIAN (58TH) (END PART)

Destroyed Georgian police and Military vehicle's were hit from ambush hit by an (RPG-7) or some other type of (AT) Anti-Tank weapon, because the cab’s had been destroyed by the projectile. The vehicles dead occupants could be identified as Georgian by there red and white cross on their uniforms. Captured equipment included US supplied (1980’s) era wheeled (5) ton trucks, Most of the Georgian Army that were (KIA) Killed In Action wore, Kevlar headgear, US BDU woodland scheme (NATO) North Atlantic Treaty Organization (1980) era uniform’s, armed with (AK-47) rifles, web gear, personnel and other items.

[TRIATHLON]

THE SOVIET RUSSIAN (58TH) (PART THREE)

The Air Assault targeted Black Sea port city of Poti, which has a sizable oil shipment facility, and tied up an east-west highway through the nation. The Soviet Russian 58th Army and Volstok Brigade followed in a blitzkrieg type attack, behind an armored column of (T-72) Tanks, Grad artillery launchers, armored personnel carriers, and heavy trucks, and after heavy fighting on the outskirts of the regional capital in which (12) twelve Russian troops had been killed and (30) thirty wounded as reported by Russian Ground Forces spokesman Col. Igor Konashenkov, with (30) thirty member of the Georgian armed forces (KIA) Killed In Action.

The Soviet Russian 58th Army and Volstok Brigade entered the badly damaged city of Tskhinvalli. Saakashvili's 'coup de main' disaster restored order and proceeded deep into the Georgian territory, allowing the Soviet Russian 58th Army and Volstok Brigade Russian peacekeepers to take additional measures to ensure security in Tskhinvalli.

[TRIATHLON]

THE SOVIET RUSSIAN (58TH) (PART TWO)

The Soviet Russian 58th Army and Volstok Brigade were sent into the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia after the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, a staunch (U.S.) ally, launched an offensive to crush separatists. As the Soviet Russian 58th Army and Volstok Brigade began concentrating on the Soviet Russian side of the border with South Ossetia _ supporting the reports of an incursion, villagers were fleeing into Soviet Russia and their protection from former Soviet Republic of Georgian troops.
Behind, the air superiority provided by (MiG-29) Fulcrums and Sukhoi Flankers that attacked (3) three Georgian military installations, including the military base at Vaziani, on the outskirts of the Georgian capital, were more than (1,000) one thousand, (U.S.) Marines and soldiers had been based just a month prior training combat skills to Georgian troops, and the Marneuli military air base, killing (4) and wounding (5), and destroying several military aircraft.

[TRIATHLON]

THE SOVIET RUSSIAN (58TH)

The Soviet Russian 58th Army and Volstok Brigade were sent into the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia after the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, a staunch (U.S.) ally, launched an offensive to crush separatists. As the Soviet Russian 58th Army and Volstok Brigade began concentrating on the Soviet Russian side of the border with South Ossetia _ supporting the reports of an incursion, villagers were fleeing into Soviet Russia and their protection from former Soviet Republic of Georgian troops.

Behind, the air superiority provided by (MiG-29) Fulcrums and Sukhoi Flankers that attacked (3) three Georgian military installations, including the military base at Vaziani, on the outskirts of the Georgian capital, were more than (1,000) one thousand, (U.S.) Marines and soldiers had been based just a month prior training combat skills to Georgian troops, and the Marneuli military air base, killing (4) and wounding (5), and destroying several military aircraft.

[shqipe]

to those that say that Kosovo was always Serbia: it's impossible since Serbs came from Russia in the 7th century and Kosovo has been there for ages. The Albanians are autochtones. Serbs ruled Kosovo from 1190-1400's but so did the Bulgars, the Byzantines and the Turks. In 1912, Serbs backed Russian arms and diplomatic support go Kosovo. They asked for North Albania as well.

Albanians were thrown out from Kosovo once Serbs got there: convert or die. Google this:

"The monastery at Decani stands on a terrace commanding passes into High Albania. When Stefan Uros III founded it in 1330, he gave it many villages in the plain and catuns of Vlachs and Albanians between the Lim and the Beli Drim. Vlachs and Albanians had to carry salt for the monastery and provide it with serf labour.17 A large number of churches were sited strategically at Prizren and in 1348 Dusan is recorded as giving Albanian catuns to a monastery there. Metohija in fact was a great monastic estate."

Serbs became a majority by force. Whatever it is, by killing some 10000, raping even more and throwing out over 1 million people with the intention of keeping them out for good, they lost any right to rule the Albanians. If you think Russia behaved thuggishly because of Kosovo, you dont' know Russia. And let's not forget the 4 wars and some 200,000 dead that Serbs caused in that same decade. Coincidence?

[americandusk]

We need a new war/s. The Iraq conflict is coming to a finish. Afgan is cool, but not good enough to help the economy. What America really needs is a war with Venezuela/­Bolivia/le­ft-ist South America, and a war with Iran. Start a draft for all I care, we're at low employment rates anyways. So Russia wants to form Alliances in our part of the world, and be a thorn in the side of freedom-loving people? Alright, I say we roll out the pain on peoples that thing such an alliance will help them conquer North America.

Russia was always a commie tyrant nation of drunkards.­.. and now they are suppyling most of Europe with energy. Not the smartest thing Europe has done.

Lets mix it up.

[mossey]

While Hagel was right that support for the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo would cause blowback from Russia, this was not a reason to back out of supporting the move. What we need to change is not the decision to support the independence of Kosovo, but the blatant display of double standards by the Bush administration.

Georgia attacked a minority region, South Ossetia, with a plausibly legitimate desire for independence. This situation IS comparable to the situation of Serbia and Kosovo in which NATO intervened, yet the administration paints Georgia as a saintly peace loving democracy attacked out of hand by the evil Russia. Russia's actions were clearly disproportionate and no attempt at a diplomatic solution was made before military intervention, but we should not forget that South Ossetia has wanted independence ever since the break up of the Soviet Union in the early '90s, and that her people voted as such in a plebiscite.

Perhaps the United States, and "the west" in general, should be more even handed in their analysis. But no, both of these situations come down to a power play in the struggle for influence by the big powers. The people of Serbia/Kos­ovo/Georgi­a/South Ossetia don't come in to it. Ethical foreign policy -don't be silly.

[Donald Wolberg]

Mr. Hagel is much like other politicians: he has a profound sense of the obvious. There is nothing in his observations that is not within the perview of knowledge available to anyone lese interested in the region. One might also suggest that Mr. hagel at the time was attempting to positionhimself for a role as foreign policy wonk/expert, statesman with deep understanding, and general all around non-conformist candidate. Unfortunately, Mr. Hagel was very much a candidate with even less popularity than Democrat Joe Biden, another self-annointed whizz or the world. Mr. Biden received 9000 votes in his less than illustrious campaign and Mr. hagel failed to even match that with a yawn. Fortunately, the American public need not be concerned any longer; Mr. Hagel has chosen to leave the Senate.

[pros54]

How I love our hatred of thoughtfulness and know in this country, hence the go Palin phenomenon.
I guess you are hoping Hagel will be replaced by a know nothing Republican.

[Donald Wolberg]

There is illusion and delusion: Mr. McCain, in response to Mr. Bush's comments about "seeing Mr. Putin's soul," of course remarked several years ago that when he looked into Mr. Putin's eyes, he,"saw KGB." Mr. Hagel was competition for Mr. McCain and other republican candidates. He lost; no one wanted him as a candidate. There is nothin "Palinesque" in this; it is hostory.

[TRIATHLON]

"VENGEANCE IS BEST SERVED COLD" (END PART)

But a Rump Battalion of Soviet Russian Airborne Paratroopers did provide a rare moment of pride which didn't accomplish much, though it did infuriate then (NATO) Commander Wes Clark, by seizing control of Kosovo's only airport, in Pristina. And in (2008), Soviet Russia was forced to stand by as Kosovo was given its independence. But unlike the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, Kosovo it doesn’t boarder Soviet Russia

[TRIATHLON]

"VENGEANCE IS BEST SERVED COLD" (PART ONE)

Vladimir Putin was not going to make the mistake he did in Chechnya by sending in poorly trained units. Putin had completely purged the Soviet Russian Army from the top down after the Chechnya, Dagestan, and Afghanistan wars. When Russia was still in chaos, weak, humbled and less powerful, rankled, as did the righteous ouster of Slobodan Milosevic. and the wounded pride of Soviet Russia caused by the treatment of Serbia during the (1999) Kosovo War, when the (US) bombed Serbia one of Soviet Russia's closest and oldest ally’s into submission and did so to send a half-baked and ill-conceived utterly useless message to the Islamic world that while we might favor the (51st) State of the (US) Israel, (99%) of the time, once in a while we would throw the Muslim world a scrap. America's actions in Serbia never were about halting ethnic cleansing. If that had been the motivation of the (US) that was bombing bridges in heart of Serbia taking sides in a civil war, would have bombed Rwanda then and would be in Darfur now actually stopping genocides. The West had further humiliated Soviet Russia recognizing the breakaway state of Kosovo

.

[Donald Wolberg]

Nonsense: the Russian troops gave every indication of a moderately rag-tag Army with much looting. The destruction of targets was haphazard despite attempts to demonstrate modern accuracy. I suspect the wholesale destruction of civilian sites was an effort to "hide" the lack of modern equipment and poor training. Their equipment appeared to be the worn but reasonably reliable T-68 and 72, obsolete and indicating that the newer designs were not available. The Russian air sorties were not well done and perhaps 6-10 attack aircraft were knocked out by shoulder held missiles. There is no data on the helicopter loses.This is all the more remarkable given the non-availablity of a meaningful Georgian Army in a modern sense. The Russians clobbered the Georgians by putting in 20:1 ratios of motorized infantry and had no air opposition. Russia remains an undeveloped economic and industrial state with corruption impacting military effectiveness.

[TRIATHLON]

THE SOVIET RUSSIAN (58TH) (PART ONE)

The Soviet Russian 58th Army and Volstok Brigade, In accordance with the constitution and federal law, were obliged to honor their pledge to protect the lives and dignity South Ossetia’s, most of South Ossetia region’s residents had been granted citizenship, after the (1992) Georgia, South Ossetia hostilities, were the province won de facto independence and Soviet Russian troops went in as (UN) United Nations sanctioned peacekeepers, or of Russian citizens wherever they are located, and could not allow the death of their compatriots and fellow citizens to go unpunished, and could not have been expected to use a "pocket knife’s", "sling shot’s", or “paint” ball’s to counter the former Soviet Republic of Georgia's (U.S./ BWI/IDF) trained army while deciding what constituted adequate force and they didn’t. Almost (12) hours, after the aggression of Georgians against the (UN) United Peace Keeping Troops,documented t Russians Citizens, a veteran unit which had gotten plenty of practice from the (1993) Chechnya, and Dagestan wars, and helped the (US) take down the Taliban in Afghanistan, along with the Chechnya Irregular's from the Volstok Brigade, the Chechnya’s troops could easily be identified by there tennis shoe's and other non-military equipment, had taken its tanks out of mothballs, used acrylic spray paint to spray paint their (ID) Identification on their equipment and armored vehicle's and, deployed several (SS-21) missile launchers to positions north of Tskhinvali, the South Ossetia capital within range of Georgia's capital, Tbilisi.

[ritgar]

Hopefully, Hagel will not let them marginalize him over the current flap with Government 4-day, work weeks. He & OPM seem to have totally misunderstood each other & it is making Hagel look bad, which should not happen! He may be a Repub, but he is someone who would be welcome in the Obama administration for his well thought out positions on many issues. He seems to be very conserviaive but willing to compromise and work with those who do not completely agree with him, no matter waht their party.