Why "Radio Silence" Can be a Good Thing in VP Selection

Obama's campaign is really smart. They have the blogging and media communities jumping at every flick of the Obama campaign's collective pinky -- wondering what this gesture or that might reveal about who will be selected as Obama's running mate.

I'm fascinated by the tension that has built up over this selection process and think that almost anyone but Evan Bayh is going to get thunderous applause -- mostly because folks will be relieved that the wait is over.

Sources can be wobbly, and anyone trying to reach out to insiders runs the risk of being drawn into a trap or being fed false or just unintentionally incorrect information.

But my best guess today -- as I've said for days now -- is that Obama's choice is Joe Biden.

In contrast to the netroots and progressive community's "surge of concern" over the former momentum of Evan Bayh's selection -- a wide range of support exists for Joe Biden.

Biden polls well with working women, with white working class males, with Hispanics, and perhaps most importantly -- with the elderly and with elder, politically active Jewish-Americans who give a disproportionate amount of money politically in comparison to the population size of Jewish-Americans in the U.S. And Biden, on the whole, is liked by the netroots and progressive communities -- and the blogosphere in recent days has embraced him.

There could be a sleeper candidate, or Obama could change his mind.

But what I think I know is that Senator Obama has decided with a 98% factor of certainty on his choice. Obama is able to change course if need be between now and the VP announcement if something unexpected shows up in the political marketplace about his as yet unannounced but probable running mate.

Tom Daschle and Evan Bayh were called and told they will not be 'it' according to several sources. I don't have anything on Tim Kaine -- other than insiders tell me that Obama has decided against him -- mostly because he doesn't help check off the foreign policy box or experience box. I just don't hear much about Kathleen Sebelius so am not counting her as a strong candidate.

Wesley Clark and Bill Richardson were not seriously considered according to sources -- and Jack Reed, who Obama likes a great deal, would not allow himself to be vetted. I don't believe Chris Dodd was high on the list.

Sam Nunn was knocked out by progressives, and this blog may have helped with regard to his unreformed position on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

Hagel would be a game-changing choice on a few levels -- but one of those levels could produce a strange scenario in which his selection could anger enough super delegates that they would revolt and hand Hillary Clinton a surprise convention victory. That means Hagel is not a real option.

Hillary Rodham Clinton would be a shocker -- a move that would both force everyone to catch their breath and say 'wow' while at the same time animating Republicans who were asleep with their own candidate's blandness to arise and work against an Obama-Clinton win. Essentially, I think Obama has decided against Hillary and what he fears would be a dysfunctional presidency with her -- even though an Obama/Clinton ticket is one of the few combinatiosn that looks like a knock-out punch to McCain and the Republicans.

But that leaves Joe Biden, who was recently traveling in Georgia and surveying the situation there. In typical Biden style, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman specified where Russia had crossed inappropriate lines but he did so without squealing in some hyperventilating manner like so many other pundits and observers have. And he left portals open to explore what is right, and what is effective and in American interests regarding future such situations as Georgia and NATO. He didn't jump behind Georgia full stop on everything. Biden was judicious -- and we need more of that.

But has Biden heard a word from Obama or his team?

My sources say NO.

According to one source, there has been total radio silence.

Well, be thankful for radio silence I guess when other candidates for VP are getting phone calls saying "Sorry....but we look forward to working with you in many other ways in the coming years."

The word that Obama has not communicated with Biden makes him, in the estimation of many, the likely candidate -- as Obama knows that Biden will accept on a moment's notice. I confirmed this with a person very close to the Delaware Senator.

The thinking is that the moment a VEEP candidate gets the positive nod from Obama, the candidate then tells his spouse and family -- and they can't help but tell close family and friends, and then bloggers like me get the drift and put it out there. To keep it quiet and the decision un-firm continues the buzz, hype and dominance of the media by Team Obama -- and also keeps Obama's options open until the last possible moment lest something unexpected pop up.

Intrade, which is a futures prediction market, confirms much of what I have written. The last trade has Biden surging 19 points to 50% probability of selection.

What is interesting is the roster of other rankings:

Biden 50%

Kaine 15.5%

Bayh 12.7%

Sebelius 13.9%

Clark 12.9%

Clinton 9.3%

Dodd 3.0%

Rendell 2.0%

Gephardt 5.0%

Bloomberg 1.5%

Gore 3.0%

Cohen 2.0%

John Edwards 0.5%

Did you catch that last bit? Wow. . .what a fall.

-- Steve Clemons publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note

Comments

[Jesteramos]

Sebelius....make it as the first woman Veep and the first black president....

history in the making...

[MajGenDude]

What ever happened to John Kerry on this list? I heard on a couple of of talk shows that he would be the pick. He is the only other household name, besides Hillary that is being considered. I was for him from the start in 04 and would welcome him on the ticket now. He doesn't have to be vetted & has the experience and motive to really go after the Repub. slime machine.

[neworleanslady68]

I still love Kerry and would love him to be V.P., but you and I are in the minority. Most people just say "loser" whenever I mention him. Very unforgiving crowd...

[lboucher]

On Meet the Press, November 27, 2005: "I"ve been calling for more troops for over two years, along with John McCain and others subsequent to my saying that." -J. Biden

Speaking to the New York Observer: "But " and the "but" was clearly inevitable " he doubts whether American voters are going to elect "a one-term, a guy who has served for four years in the Senate," and added: "I don"t recall hearing a word from Barack about a plan or a tactic."" -J. Biden

September 26, 2007: Biden for President Campaign Manager Luis Navarro said, "Sen. Obama said he would do everything possible to end the war in Iraq and emphasized the need for a political solution yet he failed to show up to vote for Sen. Biden"s critical amendment to provide a political solution in Iraq.

[cutter]

Obama-Biden. Sounds like the chorus of a new song...I can't wait to hear it.

[live by the golden rule]

If Biden becomes VP [or takes on any other role, such as Secretary of State] his vacant Senate seat would be filled by appointment by the Governor of Delaware, who is a wonderful woman and a Democrat.
The same rule goes for Indiana, that the Governor would appoint a replacement for Bayh. Unfortunately, the Governor of Indiana [although up for re-election in the fall] is a Republican.
Obama must have 60 Democrats in the Senate in order to move his agenda forward. It would be a huge risk to appoint Bayh, and possibly lose one seat.
Therefore, one rule in the VP choice should be that if a Senator is chosen, the Senator must come from a state with a Democratic governor. This rule, if followed, would rule out Bayh but allow Biden [or Clinton].
PS The rules differ from state to state. Here is a summary:
http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=238549

[gvidal]

WASHINGTON - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.


SHOULD I SAY " I TOLD YOU SO" ??

NOW, BEG FOR HILLARY -- Just beg - she "may" help you

[smags72]

Oh please. Get a grip - NO WAY are any of us going to even ASK, let alone beg. Give it up!

She only wants to help herself anyway.

[Ozarks]

Figures lie and Liars figure.

[heavyrunner]

We have enough trouble trusting the official vote on election day, and now I am supposed to trust the "polls," which have no independent oversight?

After the 2004 election I got involved with my own local elections, and am now the Inspector and Technology Supervisor at one of our polling places. If you are an honest person and want to insure the integrity of our election process, you should get involved with your local elections board in some way.

[BookBabe49]

I am really torn after reading some of these posts. I adore Joe Biden and think he offers articulate counsel in this age of high-volume rhetoric. But I also think he would be ideal as Secretary of State.

I had a chance to meet him as he campaigned in Alabama in 1984, and was impressed by his directness, incredible blue eyes, impeccable dress and gracious manner. However, It's been his gift for dissecting, in relentless detail sometimes, complex issues on the international scene without resorting to some "shoot from the hip" quick fix that has really had an impact.

GO JOE, GO JOE, GO JOE. I guess we wait for the Obama camp to text us, right?

[mgh234]

I hope to god he picks Biden. Biden has the balls to say things like they are; whereas Obama has shown to be too worried about his "brand" to do so. Since Obama refuses to understand basically psychology and why negative ads work despite people "not liking" them, Biden is the only shot we have to take on McCain's lies.

[Bula]

Obama needs an attack dog... Joe fits the bill perfectly.

The Good Cop, Bad Cop bit works....

[ESerafina42]

What gives with this starry-eyed infatuation with Joe Biden? If anyone EXEMPLIFIES the "old politics," it's someone who's spent almost his entire adult life in the Senate, 35 YEARS as opposed to 26 for McCain. AND (gasp!) he voted "for the war," which according to most of these same people, automatically excludes Hillary from consideration.

Incidentally, as I've pointed out before, didn't Obama SAY not to pay any attention to anything you hear until he made his announcement? And isn't it all just between him and one or two other people? How, then, is this writer telling us, so and so has been exlcuded, so and so was never even in consideration, etc., etc.? I would love to see him pick one of those people or someone whose name has never even been mentioned, just to confound you all.

[Ratso]

I think Joe is the best candidate next to Hillary. The burden of Bill is simply too much for Obama to bear. Biden has the guts and the smarts not to mention the hair, now. Biden's plagerism issue is small potatoe and really no big deal. He brings a lot of what Obama is missing.

[Huffingtonposter231]

I think it's important to extend the "fairness" doctrine to radio because their are a lot of popular conservative radio shows out there and we can drive them off the air. We control the schools and the main stream media, all we have to do is drive them off radio and they will not be able to stop us!

That's the liberal way right? That makes me "progressive"?

[thesimulacra]

No that doesn't make you a "progressive". What this post does make you, though, is a troll paid for by some right wing 517 to come to Progressive websites and make completely inane, vapid and irrelevant comments all over the blog in order to try and fulminate dissent. Your kind is disgusting and it's going to be wonderful to watch you squirm for the next 8 years.

[CTmom13]

I am still hoping for Gore

Or my 2nd pick are Clark, Sweitzer or Warner.

or 3rd picks Sebelius or Webb

[Huffingtonposter231]

The world is cooling down, more and more scientists are coming out declaring carbon warming the planet is a junk-science religion. Gore is dead meat. The left will "protect" him and pretend to believe in his junk science for the rest of their lives.... but he's now the guru of junk science and would not aid the ticket.

[Bozwellian]

...lol, so guess those on the right that ARE coming round and believing that there is something more than "junk" in the science that confirms alarms to ring off regarding the enviroment and the very earth existence/etc are what, just junk in the right and not to be confused with those who are so very sure that GOD himself will allow the destruction/argamegonics and no scientist can perdict or stop or halt or whatever...yeah, right on and whatever as FEWER disdain the notion that indeed the planet itself is feeling the tortuous imperilments and man himelf is likely culprit in contributing and hence able to take corrective steps to preserve and at east pratially perhaps restore..some do operate on more than mere blind faith and DO believe their is a higher alternative that is guided by fsciencetidical premises that have provided so much in other areas as well and proven useful !!!

[thesimulacra]

Oh wait so NOW the science you've found that says the world is cooling is trustworthy and reliable, is it? But all of those thousands of other scientists who did thousands of nonpartisan studies all over the globe and came to the same general conclusion about global warming... those studies were just wrong, right?

Where did you get your degree from?

[FiveFortyOne]

That picture doesn't look like hope and change to me. When was the last time the two men appeared together? I can't see Obama picking someone he's never campaigned with. It scares me the degree of support for Biden I see on this blog and others. I suspect many people are going very, very disappointed.

[Huffingtonposter231]

Which one is hope and which one is change? Looks like to radicalized far left socialist "progressives" to me.

[ladyv]

"Socialist." You people keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

[Bluebloodsbastardson]

Al Gore?

[lingale]

No question. An Obama/Gore '08 ticket would be a slam dunk into the White House. So, is this (a) the best kept secret in media history; (b) a "Rats. I could've had a V-8" moment or (c) the ultimate "Thanks, but no thanks" . . . ?

[Misante]

I pray Obama knows Joe Biden is the best choice. His solid reputation in the Senate alone makes him a prime candidate for VP. With Bayh on the ticket the Republicans would use every chance they got to name the Obama/Bayh ticket the new "Mickey Mouse Club".

Obama needs someone with experience, longevity, and the balls to rip McSurge and his band of bandits to shreds DIPLOMATICALLY. Biden is my choice and I pray Obama feels the same way.

I have never in my life been more excited about a presidential campaign.....bring it on baby!!!!!!