07/02/2006 01:11 pm ET | Updated May 25, 2011

AMLO for Mexico?

Mexico is voting today, in a very important, close election, and I'm guessing Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) will win.

Not that I have any inside information. It's just that pundits and pollsters usually treat poor people with disrespect, and in this election, where they have been given a bit of a choice in a close 3-way race, more poor people in Mexico than usual may vote.

If corruption and cheating remain under control (unlike say, Florida 2000 or Ohio 2004), that should favor AMLO.

And if Obrador does win, it may mean overdue changes for NAFTA, and even more of an immigration freakout by the far right.