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Steve Harmon

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Obama vs. Romney, Who's Ahead in Latest Consensus?

Posted: 07/27/2012 2:07 pm

The 2012 Presidential race stakes are high with both Obama and Romney hoping to win the public's favor. So we tallied up what people think across the polls, news, blogs and social media about the two front runners. And, based on the latest consensus from several million data points, America hasn't found a clear winner yet.

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After, our consensus engine boiled down the data:

Dogging Romney's approval is trust.

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Dogging Obama's approval is lack of action.

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A lot of the action centered around Romney: Why won't he release a meaningful number of tax returns? The general consensus is it appears he may be trying to hide something. True or not, the debate drove up the chatter on social media around the Republican. And not in a good way. Chatter is up 28%, with more than two-thirds of it negative. Romney also showed a lack of statesmanship on his visit to Britain where he questioned London's ability to handle the Olympic Games.

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Romney's missteps provided Obama an opening to highlight his agenda, how he would improve things for the average American? Instead, Obama sounds oddly distant from his 2008 "change" platform. The issues there were a lot clearer, the voice louder, more meaningful. How much change has occurred? Or maybe better said, how much successful damage control has Obama been able to pull off after inheriting the Bush era?

The data around Obama shows a lack of action-oriented issues this time around to boost his approval. What does Obama stand for today? Americans are looking at the economy, jobs, his handling of the banking industry, ongoing mortgage industry issues.

With opinion tracking this close, the deciding voters may very well be the independents. This is the time for leadership more than rhetoric.

 
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07:50 PM on 08/31/2012
Hopefully we'll get the change we were promised 4 years ago with Romney, because this experiment DID NOT WORK! I admit I bought in on the hope!.. now want the change! This guy has been a disaster and its difficult to see how anyone could vote him in for a second term.
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Fishcakes
05:47 AM on 09/02/2012
Randee722
If your estimate wealth stands at over 300million dollars,why are you running for office that pays $400,000 per year?,my interpretation is,Mitt Romney is running for the presidency on behalf of the rich folks.He does not have America's interest at heart.Some white Americans,including yourself,does not want to see a black man at the helm,I guess you are part of the Jim crow era.
08:43 AM on 09/02/2012
Fishcakes,
In regards to your comments.
"If your estimate wealth stands at over 300million dollars,why are you running for office that pays $400,000 per year?" I’m pretty sure NO president has ever run on the thoughts of monetary gain...
"Mitt Romney is running for the presidency on behalf of the rich folks" And Barrack is running on the behalf of folks that want something for nothing, we cannot continue to pay more out than we take in, I'm sure you realize this every month as you pay your bill as I do in my house hole...
"Some white Americans, including yourself, does not want to see a black man at the helm". Did I mention my race? Nope, I didn’t, and I really don’t care if our nation’s leader is black, white, brown or 'sky blue pink'. This isn't about race for me, it’s about basic "American" principles and the preservation of country and no Fishcakes I’m not part of the Jim Crow era...
07:09 PM on 08/11/2012
if obama is re-elected u might as well kiss this country goodbye
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meg tudor
07:16 PM on 08/13/2012
Melodramatic much? *roll eyes*. Whomever wins this country will be just fine-as it's always been. I could care less about either of the candidates.
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Fishcakes
05:12 PM on 08/30/2012
Brian Strand
If Mitt Romney is elected we as well kiss America goodbye.
He will be worse than George W.Bush Jr.,who increased the national debt by 115%
Ronald Regan trickle down regannomnics increased the national debt by a whopping 186%
Republicans are so full of it,it is not even a laughing matter.
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TWO-FACE MITT
04:21 PM on 08/06/2012
I'm clueless.
10:00 AM on 08/02/2012
Don't matter who wins..NOTHING WILL CHANGE,
08:19 AM on 07/31/2012
Why do the republicans take 50 million dollars worth of tax payers money to give to Tampa, FL to prepare for the Republican National Convention and then complain how the President does nothing to slow the deficit and/or government spending? The only reason Obama hasn't been able to do more for the country is because of the "say no to everything" Republican Party. Mitt and the rest of his party do nothing to try and make this country a better place. That same ideology would continue should Romney become President.
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jkbc8484
12:45 PM on 08/08/2012
I disagree with your last sentence. If the House and/or the Senate is a re-pub majority then a lot of changes will be made. Unfortunately not for the better.
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Fishcakes
05:43 PM on 08/30/2012
mikeorl01
Mitt Romney is an extension of George W.Bush Jr.,who increased the national debt by 115%.
One reason they "say no to everything",President Barack Obama is black,and they want to see him fail.It is by designed.
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danshanteal
02:13 PM on 07/29/2012
I look at Rasmussen for poll input; then the generic poll. But I did read recenntly how Hot Air picked 62-65 GOP house net winners in 2010. Can't beat that. I also don't think the huge gains in 2010 should be considered a major sign of Obama's vulnerability.
05:05 PM on 07/28/2012
The US cannot put infrastructure in, or repair old infrastructure any more. We have to spend 7 TRILLION dollars to pay for a worthless war for nothing started by you REPUBLICAN CONSERVATIVES by lying, all for nothing! If that isn't a reason to vote Democratic, I don't know what is.

By the way, estimates are that to correct ALL infrastructure needs in the US, the cost would be about 2 trillion So for what you CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS WASTED FOR NOTHING, WE COULD HAVE REPAIRED ALL INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE US OVER THREE TIMES!!!

Next time you are wondering why pipes are breaking, roads crumbling, bridges breaking... look to your MORON REPUBLICAN LEADERS and stop bitching about Obama.
04:47 PM on 08/04/2012
LETS SAY FOR A MOMENT THAT THE WAR WAS A WASTE OF TIME. WHO VOTED FOR THE WAR. AND WHO AGAIN VOTED TO KEEP THE TROOPS IN THERE FOR 4 MORE YEARS. ALWAYS LOOK AT ALL OF THE FACTS THEN MAKE A GOOD SOUND JUDGMENT. IT TAKES AN ACT OF CONGRESS TO START A WAR UNLESS OUR OBAMA.
03:37 AM on 07/28/2012
i don't believe the polls. romney is a weak candidate. thus far he has yet to do anything other than gaff. over and over mitt gaffs, shoots himself in the foot. he is running out of feet. no one likes him. he is a mormon. everything he says is a lie. perhaps more republicans answer the phone requests for polls? or the media is not to be believed?
10:34 AM on 07/28/2012
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/07/romney-is-gaining.html

I think you are making a huge mistake in scoffing at Romney's chances.

It is true Obama leads in most electoral college projections...but people know Obama by now, and he still is about even with Romney on head to head matchups.

So Obama's potential for improving his numbers is very limited.

People don't yet know Romney.

What they see thus far is not helping Romney.

But Romney has three months to change that.

There is potential there that is absent with Obama.

People already know Obama, and his numbers will remain stable.

Not so with Romney.

He has the potential to move his numbers up.

He also has the potential to move his numbers down.

I am not at all as confident as you, even as I hope Obama wins....ESPECIALLY since this rightwing congress will probably be reelected, and a Romney would do anything this crackpot congress wants.
04:13 PM on 07/28/2012
i don't think so.   you can't believe everything you read, especially andrew sullivan, rightwing poliblob.  romney sure got himself known this week, eh?  he's all over the olympics, one billion people watching him get his latest smackdown.  oh please!  you worry too much. 
11:02 PM on 08/03/2012
People know what Romney is capable of doing from his Mass Governorship and Bain leadership.
If Obama has not done enough, Romney has been worse. So you don't replace bad with worse!!
A Key economic growth strategy begins with security. With Osama gone, terrorism has been dealt a death blow. Won't you let Obama take the credit in the name of fair play??
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12:05 PM on 07/28/2012
All of that , but the President is dogged by his liberal/progressive base who whine incessantly about his continuation of shrub policies and retaining shrub people in his administration. These people are refusing to support the President because of this, and because we have watched him tie himself in knots for the last three years trying for cooperation from the right.

This should energize the liberal/progressive base to get active and elect more liberal/progressive candidates to congress, but noooo, they will sit on their hands like they did in 2010, give the election to the conservatives, then whine for four more years about how bad things are.

The American electorate are lazy id10ts. We credit, and blame the President for the economy when the President clearly has almost no power to effect the economy. That blame or credit is almost entirely on the shoulders of congress, read the constitution sometime if you doubt that.

As for the actions, or in-actions of this presidency, President Obama has operated with a keen sense of his toxicity. Any issue he endorses becomes instantly toxic. This is why he waited to endorse gay marriage until the public was squarely behind him. This is why he did nothing on DADT, letting congress lead the way. Same with the Affordable Care Act, etc.
04:16 PM on 07/28/2012
americans are dumb and getting dumber all the time.   that is true.  and the media is owned by the fat cats who lie and promote ignorance.  bottom line, young men die because old men lie. 
10:12 PM on 08/17/2012
its also why he got tough on medical pot, so the reds support it.  he's catching on. 
12:38 AM on 07/28/2012
You may want to redo your numbers after the epic fail in London yesterday.
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Steelsil
Warren/Grayson 2016! Yes We Can!
12:16 AM on 07/28/2012
I don't see anything reliable or valid about this method of assessment.
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demisfine
Often correct, NEVER right.
08:46 PM on 07/27/2012
"Lack of Action"??????
AYKM????
President Obama saved the auto industry
He passed the ACA
He got $20 Billion from BP to clean and restore the Gulf
He got OBL, without an aircraft carrier spectacle.
He re-invested in trade and community college degrees
He ended our invasion of Iraq
He increased our national VA investment
He has increased military outreach to returning and retraining service members

He is one man.
The DNC needs to get out the word on things which have been accomplished.
The have been awol for 3 1/2 years.
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Dan Langdon
Independent Thinker
07:12 PM on 07/27/2012
What about the other candidates?
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fearthebetenoire
Lying's like 95% of what I do. In your job? Sure.
07:09 PM on 07/27/2012
Interesting analysis. I certainly agree that now is the time for the President to forcefully articulate his policy plans to improve the economy and support job growth. Given his careful nature and the well-timed announcements of his positions regarding a number of other issues, I can only assume, and hope, that the President and his advisors have carefully calculated the optimal timing for him to outline his economic plans.
06:54 PM on 07/27/2012
One thing about polls is that they can't capture the move to cell phones. Typically older and wealthier people have home phones, others have cell phones only. The key thing as well is voter registration and ease of doing so in the swing states.
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Allen Clark
05:31 PM on 07/27/2012
Yet another Poll that is meaningless. You people are so bad, you even slanted the pictures towards Obama. Someday we will see a truly unbias opinion poll that we can actually believe. I did my own poll and Romney is overwhelmingly winning in every catagory. I talked to all my friends and relatives and for some reason, they all agree with me and are planning on voting for Romney. Of course my poll is completely random and unbias and my questions were certainly fair and balanced.
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SuzDuJour
As cute as I am funny...hey, wait a second
04:21 AM on 07/29/2012
I must have smarter family and friends...I don't know anyone who would vote for Romney...even my GOP friends are embarrassed by him.
05:42 AM on 08/12/2012
Are you kidding me I have a friend that did a fundraiser for Romney and all of her Republican friends could not go because they all gave the maximum donation for the republican party. They decided to invite there Democratic friends and they all gave big bucks for Romney. Interesting it is the Democrats that will elect Romney!!!! Go Dems
11:09 PM on 08/03/2012
Allan your relative dodn't constitute the best of a poll sample for obvious reasons.