How the Coming Obama Landslide Will Trump the Bradley Effect

No Democrat should be overconfident. John McCain, forever bitter about the dirty-tricks campaign the Bushies waged against him in South Carolina in 2000, has obviously cooked up some monstrously hypocritical rationalization for basing his current campaign on filth, filth and more filth. In so doing he has given up his last chance to make it close and instead has cleared the way for an Obama landslide of historic proportions.

If present trends hold, and Obama pulls it off, we could be looking at a strangely perfect inversion of 2000 - - candidate Bush ran on the promise of being a "uniter, not a divider," took office only after the Supreme Court installed him in what amounted to a U.S. coup d'etat, and then embarked on a hard-right presidency that ensured division, resentment and even hatred would be inflamed -- and become a raging epidemic in American politics, so rampant that even well meaning people on the left would let hatefulness and ugliness infuse their discussion of their fellow Democrats.

(I was for Hillary all the way; now I'm for Obama. If you've got a problem with that -- if you're one of these Ds who wants to weaken our resolve by directing your fire away from McCain and Bush and the perky demon named Sarah Palin, then let's hash it out downstairs in the Comments section.)

If Obama can really pull off a landslide, we the American people will have spoken loud and clear that it is time to come together as a country, time to turn away from the politics of division and resentment, and time to get back to asking not what our country can do for us but what we can do for our country. As I've written elsewhere, the job of restoring American's standing in the world, its status as a reminder of hope and possibility, will not be easy or quick, but we will also have made a powerful statement to the world that we are not George Bush's America -- or Sarah Palin's -- we are much, much more.

So let's talk about the Bradley Effect. I covered George Deukmejian as a young student reporter, and I can remind everyone that he was a nice enough man, but very dull as a politician. It looked weird when he overcame a double-digit deficit in the Field Poll in 1982, topping an African-American candidate, L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley, in the race for California Governor.

People who want to reduce the Bradley Effect down to people "lying" to pollsters miss the point; they could just as well be lying to themselves. Or maybe they really don't know, right up until the last minute. The Bradley Effect should be understood as one factor among many swirling around to shape voting patterns on Election Day, and we can probably assume that in the 26 years since Tom Bradley lost that race, we have made some progress.

The key factor is this: In California in '82, few voters had strong preferences in the race. This year, many voters have strong preferences, a phenomenal 77 percent of the American people think we are on the "wrong track" as a country, even before the latest cataclysmic news from Wall Street, and all the McCain outfit can come up with is the predictable smear strategy we all knew they would resort to if their backs were to the wall.

There will be people around the country who will, in the end, not feel comfortable voting for Obama because of his skin color or racial background or his name, and won't. But as the Electoral Map continues to change color, with states like Florida, Virginia and Colorado looking ripe for Democratic picking, it gets easier and easier for voters sold on Obama's ideas, but reticent or uncomfortable about voting for him, to cast aside that reticence or discomfort and go with the man they know is going to win the thing without them.

So if the out-of-ideas Republicans keep on resorting to juicing up their campaign with the steroids of wild attacks, and keep losing more Americans in the middle, worried to death about the financial earthquakes hitting seemingly every day, then this year could represent a turning point in American politics even more epic than previously expected.

An Obama landslide? You betcha!

Comments

[doberman1]

Thanks Steve, keep telling it like it is. Doberman1

[Katatsea]

Wonderful post Steve....I'm especially hoping that after the debate the other evening, there is no doubt left in anyone's mind that Mc Cain is just simply not competent. That coupled with the horror Palin ... I just can't imagine someone Not voting for Obama....

[VillagesNancy]

Very interesting posting. I remember the Bradley effect but am wondering if the Palin image - and the economy - will cause many people to vote for Obama. So far, Mc Cain has not been able to distance himself from Bush - as much as he has tried - and, pehaps, when people get into the privacy of that voting booth they just won't be able to support Mc Cain.

When on thinks about it, one of his recent mistakes in judgment was even picking Palin without knowing much about her. What does that show about Mc Cain??

Keep up the informative postings, Steve.

[BobGee]

I truly think we've come farther, as a country, than we were during the Bradley Effect, and voters will make their choice for the better candidate, Obama. The Palin Effect may have more negative influence on the McCain campaign, a mistake in judgment on his part.

[JKKlingner]

I worked tirelessly for Tom Bradley's campaign for governor, and remember well that I felt not just disappointed but also very disillusioned with the political process when he lost. That was the last campaign for which I precinct-walked. Until now. When I watched Barack Obama's acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, the overwhelming feeling I had was one of hope restored, inspired by Obama. He gave me reason to believe in the political process again.

One more thought about the Bradley effect. I believe it will be a factor to some extent, but that there will be an opposing Palin effect of stronger proportions. Some voters who now think they will vote for the McCain-Palin ticket will not do so when push comes to shove and they consider the possibility of Palin becoming Commander-in-Chief. They just won't be able to do it. Time will tell...

[napapjd]

Correction: In my previous post, I said "Bradley's pollster" denied there was a Bradley Effect. In fact, the pollster in question worked for Deukmejian. Silver, in his fivethirtyeight.com piece, misidentified him and I repeated the error.

[Steve Kettmann - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks for the correction. I'm troubled by anyone who wants to argue passionately that the Bradley Effect is a "myth." The V. Lance Tarrance, Jr. article, for example, talks a lot about the Field Poll, but I can't find anywhere where he acknowledges that Bradley had a DOUBLE-DIGIT lead shortly before Election Day. I believe it was about nine days earlier. Yes, it was closing fast by Election Day - but why? Anyone who thinks they can put themselves inside the head of every voter and know just why they voted how they did makes me nervous.

[napapjd]

Couple of new bits to throw into the hopper....

Bradley's pollster says the Effect never happened with Bradley himself:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com says the Bradley Effect did seem to exist, but is no more:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/if-bradley-effect-is-gone-what-happened.html

[Steve Kettmann - Huffpost Blogger]

Also, if anyone has specific Field Poll numbers from '82, in the weeks leading up to Election Day, I'd love to see them.

[lord bunsky]

Even though, I cannot actually see the US from my landmass in Central Europe, the attitude toward this upcoming election is clear: The world is counting on Americans to get rid of this war-monging, hate-breeding, intoleranc­e-spreadin­g Republican government in order to restore faith in a country that used to be worth looking up to.

This is a chance for America to rebuild sympathy among its fellow earthlings. To rebuild trust into a country based on sound values and the love of freedom rather than on outrageous bigotry-driven politics and the sacrifice of freedom for some sort of bizarre understanding of security.

[Steve Kettmann - Huffpost Blogger]

Great point, your lordship, and I hope it is not lost on many Huff Post readers: The whole world is watching to see what we do here, and yes (so sorry to have to contradict the Paliniacs) it does matter what our fellow earthlings think of us.

[jillsie529]

I don't know perhaps I am the only voter who keeps hearing the words of James Carvelle over and over inside my head, "Its the economic, stupid." I will base my decision Novemeber 4th on which candidate will be more likely to do what needs to be done to aid our trouble economic state. Note to candidates -- please come out and give the voters some real information about what you would really be able to do to ease our current crises, and who you would serve as your economic advisors. The color of a man/woman's skin doesn't factor into my decision. I know enough about this incredible world we share a part of to know that there are plenty of countries well-governed by capable men and women comprised of a rainbow of colors.

[Dicateo]

I live in the very red state of Tennessee, and in a county that is even redder. In 2000 and 04 all I saw were "W' signs. This year, I see equally Obama and McCain signs. When I drive to Whole Foods I play a little game on how many stickers of the candidates will I see today. Most of the time, Obama wins. When I am in Nashville, Obama wins big as signs and stickers are everywhere. I think Tennessee will go for McCain but I am anxious to see what the popular vote in this state will be.
As for the Bradley Effect, I have alot of friends that are Republicans voting for Obama that do not want it to be known b/c of their friends remaining loyal to McCain. They tell me this b/c they know I am openly Obama and have historically voted Democrat. My husband is Republican and is voting Obama. Alot of his close friends who are Republican are still voting McCain so he keeps low key about it. Interestingly enough, he has been for Obama longer than me. I was for Hillary in the primary and he was Obama all the way stating that he could not vote Hillary if she was on the ticket and that Obama was what we needed to turn this country around. All this being said, I think alot of people will silently go into the voting both and vote Obama on Nov 4th!

[Steve Kettmann - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks for the great comment - nice to hear from a fellow Hillary-su­pporter-tu­rned-stron­g-Obama-su­pporter. I have to say, just here in this comments section, I've been struck by how many people say they know voters who they think will vote for Obama but do not want to tell people that.

[napapjd]

It's reprehensible that supporters of Barack Obama are now suggesting he will win in a landslide over John McCain. For five years, John McCain didn't get to win in a landslide -- or lose in a landslide. That's because he didn't get to run for office. His brutal captors at the Hanoi Hilton made sure of that. So for Obama and his supporters to now suggest that John McCain will lose in a landslide, that's just beyond the pale, and they need to apologize immediately so the American people to whom John McCain has dedicated his life can refocus on the issues that don't matter in this race.

[ReaganDem]

Actually, we really should NEVER criticize John McCain on ANYTHING because, you know, he spent FIVE YEARS locked up by the commies in Viet Nam, who we had to beat, at whatever cost, or else lose the whole world to communism ... oh wait, it didn't quite work out that way, did it?

[XME]

I find myself wondering if there aren't older white folks out there who actually intend to vote for Obama but are afraid to admit it. In older generations there was something wrong with you if you were even decent to a black person, and if they have friends who have problems with the idea of a black president, perhaps there are actually people out there who won't say they'll vote for Obama because they care more about things like the economy than they do the color of our next president!

[BlueAsh]

I have been thinking about this "Bradley effect" since I first heard of it on Huff. It's been bugging me--and not just because it cast doubt on the certainly of Obama's win.

I wonder whether bringing the "Bradley effect" into the national discourse gives an opening, an excuse, or even a nod to those voters who may feel slightly conflicted about voting for Obama. Let's face it: Nowadays, most people know that one ought not to discriminate based on race. They may not agree, but they know prejudice is not *really* acceptable. Some *may* overcome their prejudice, albeit reluctantly.

But knowing that such an effect exists (it must since people talk about it!) makes it far easier for someone to rationalize or justify their prejudice. Instead of trying to suppress their prejudice, they may actually try to validate it.

I'd like to hear political scientists and sociologists provide a more coherent analysis with facts that the Bradley effect is a true recurring social/political phenomenon.

Otherwise, why not talk about the downsides of, say, the old-man effect (as in old people forgetting to vote for one of their own; or youths secretly switching their votes); or the hockey-mom effect (as in some women really despise these lipstick-covered hockey moms who spend more time gossiping and socializing than caring for their children; or hockey moms saying "I'm *not* voting for someone who is giving hockey moms a bad name...)

[jackstpaul]

Political scientists have done plenty of what you ask. You just haven't read it apparently. Aside from the political science literature (I have a polisci MA), I've read about it plenty in the mainstream (high-brow sources like the New Yorker or Harpers, Nation, et al than popular press, though enough there, too).

As far as the other factors you refer to, age has been studied, but , I'm sure, less so at the Presidential level as you desire because there haven't been too many "very old," e.g., Reagan and McCain in recent decades. Hockey moms? Get real.?

Do some research. No one is going to come and present the information you seek to you. You need to look into it yourself.

[Steve Kettmann - Huffpost Blogger]

As of Sunday morning,, it's looking even more like a potential landslide is in the air - especially if everyone keeps focused and people work hard. This morning's Washington Post has a story on one more reason to be optimistic (but not, as several comments have reminded us, ever complacent or overconfident):

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/11/AR2008101102119_pf.html

Obama Camp Relying Heavily on Ground Effort

By Alec MacGillis
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 12, 2008; A04

In 2004, Democrats watched as any chance of defeating President Bush slipped away in a wave of Republican turnout that exceeded even the goal-beating numbers that their own side had produced.

Four years later, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign intends to avoid a repeat by building an organization modeled in part on what Karl Rove used to engineer Bush's victory: a heavy reliance on local volunteers to pitch to their own neighbors, micro-targeting techniques to identify persuadable independents and Republicans using consumer data, and a focus on exurban and rural areas.

But in scale and ambition, the Obama organization goes beyond even what Rove built. The campaign has used its record-breaking fundraising to open more than 700 offices in more than a dozen battleground states, pay several thousand organizers and manage tens of thousands more volunteers. ...

[ChicoBrisbane]

I have been confident of an Obama victory since he secured the party nomination. With the ups and downs in the polls and the weeks of a seeming dead-heat between Obama and McCain, my confidence has not waivered. Now in light of the turning tide in the polls and the stunning 3-ring circus that has become of the McCain campaing, the election and the presidency belongs to Senator Obama. The only question that remains is how much of the electorial map with Obama claim? -- One thing is for certain and that is with McCain's sudden about-face that garnered him boo's from his supporters and Plain's now documented "wrong doing" in Alaska, the electorial map on Nov. 4 is going to be really freakin blue. I for one hope that the only red that I will see is the CNN logo in the lower corner of the screen.

Chico Brisbane
http://chicobrisbane.blogspot.com/

[demfriend]

I would like to think we have gotten past the time when people would feel they have to lie to hide their support or notfor Obama due to race. I have friends who I had never thought racist tell me they couldn't vote for him because "you know, he's black" which shocked me as I had never had a convesation with them to indicate they would vote based on race. It also saddened me as they felt they should attempt to change my mind about Obama based on the same reasons and hen I gave them positives about Obama they were upset with me for backing him. I look and see the amount of numbers for Obama and pray they are real and that he will win as the world needs us to have a healer as a president as do we so that there might be a coming together to solve not only the economy, which I think Bush is working againest US in his actions right now, but the wars and the global issues of warming and hunger.