Buried in most of the dissection of the Republican nominee's VP choice is one simple fact: Mitt Romney is losing this race. The Obama team's advertising assault that began in April has had an impact; Romney's favorability is underwater and he has lost ground in the head-to-head over the last 30 days. While the polls have bounced around over the last few months, we've settled into a period where the president is clearly ahead. I think we can safely say that if the election were held today Obama would win.
While the advertising spend for team Romney achieved parity with Obama's over the last few weeks, they were being outspent considerably in the spring and early summer. This took a toll. The negative assault on Romney -- including attacks on his time at Bain, offshore accounts and his refusal to release his personal tax records -- have framed a picture for swing voters that isn't pretty. Romney's favorability rating has dropped a few points since May, but take a close look at the increase in his unfavorables during that time. Right now, his unfavorable rating (47 percent) is higher than his favorable rating (44 percent). This is a debilitating situation for the Governor and needs to be corrected immediately if he is to take advantage of voter concerns over the weak economy.
The Obama campaign team has done an effective job of defining Romney as someone disinterested in -- and disconnected with -- the problems of the middle class. This is deadly for a presidential candidate and is similar to what the Clinton team did to Bob Dole in 1996 (which resulted in a similar underwater favorability rating). In fact, as the analysis below from Pew Research shows (using July numbers for the current candidates which for Romney are worse than our current assessment), Romney's favorability rating is the worst of any recent major presidential candidate.
When you look at vote share the picture is even more problematic for the Romney campaign. The trend shows that the gap between the two candidates has widened over the last 30 days. Our current average of the last five national polls of registered voters has Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 42 percent.
Our assumption has always been that if Obama is below 50 percent vote share and Governor Romney is within two or three points after Labor Day then Romney has a better than 50/50 chance of winning, since most undecided voters will break toward the challenger. That model is out the door if the incumbent has a six-point lead and the challenger's unfavorables are near 50 percent. Obama's 47-48 percent share of the national popular vote is nearly identical to Bush's 48 percent mark against Kerry in a Washington Post poll taken in August 2004 (at the time, Bush was in a statistical tie with Kerry). While Clinton's 1996 vote share was lower due to the dynamic of Ross Perot's Reform Party challenge, he was also in a 44 percent to 42 percent tie with Bob Dole in an August 1996 Newsweek poll. To find a reelection that wasn't in a near-tie for most of the summer, you have to go back to Reagan's comfortable 14-point lead over Mondale in an August 1984 Time poll. With current voter attitudes so sharply divided and partisanship at an all-time high, only a small percentage of the electorate is truly swing voters and most national races will be close from wire-to-wire, regardless of the candidates. Therefore, a five- or six-point statistically significant lead is meaningful and surely has registered with the Romney team.
Finally, take a look at Obama's approval rating. We have always maintained that it is relatively weak. An approval rating in the high 40s allows for reelection but not with a great deal of wiggle room. Low to mid 40s signals a vulnerable incumbent. Obama is at 48 percent right now. But what's most important is the trend, and Obama's recent trajectory shows solid improvement over the last year.
If this election had been held in the fall of 2011, Obama would have lost. But in the late summer of 2012 he is in reasonably good shape. Obama's current 48 percent approval rating is similar to several other modern presidents who were elected to a second term. According to the USA Today's historic data, in mid-August before their reelections George W. Bush (47 percent), Ronald Reagan (53 percent) and Bill Clinton (52 percent) all posted similar marks. Obama is also well ahead of the two incumbents who went on to lose: Jimmy Carter (33 percent) and George H.W. Bush (32 percent).
Having said the above, this thing is FAR from over and Romney still has several factors in his favor. First, Obama is continues to poll below 50 percent. As we learned in 2004 this does not mean defeat for the incumbent but it does suggest that the President is vulnerable.
Second, the economy and the jobs situation remain weak and can be severely impacted by events in Europe. The unemployment rate ticked back up to 8.3 percent in July. Even though jobs were added, the rate still climbed slightly because 852,000 discouraged workers left the labor force that month, a decline of 267,000 from a year earlier. We have said it before but it bears repeating: this is all about perception. If there are major job gains (200k per month) over the next two months the perception will be that things are improving. If not, then voters will view this as a stagnant (or worse) economy and Romney will benefit.
Third, the President's own favorability rating has been hurt by his negative ads. Voters now see Obama as more of a candidate than a president. The campaign team clearly made the calculation that the president had personal likability that could be leveraged (and, as we stated above, this has been put to good use) but it has had a negative impact on personal perceptions of Obama.
Lastly, his VP choice gives Romney an opportunity to offer his own direction for the country and to differentiate himself from Obama. And while Democrats will go into overdrive to paint the Ryan selection as a negative, this is an opportunity for Team Romney to present a clear differentiation between his governing philosophy and Obama's. To do that, Team Romney will need to take on the entitlement issue. This video was released moments ago and is probably the first of many on the subject.
Let's talk about the Ryan selection. Generally, people are probably reading too much into the pick. The whole idea that "the Romney campaign realized that it couldn't just run a referendum campaign and so it needed to pick someone who could articulate the philosophical 'choice' between the two candidates" is, I think, a bit of a reach. The fact is that every campaign (when there is an incumbent) is BOTH a referendum and a choice. There are both positives and negatives associated with the Ryan pick and they have been much scrutinized over the last 72 hours.
Thanks to Pete Ventimiglia, Allison Quigley and John Zirinsky for their thoughts and contributions to this election monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.
Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008, but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.
Follow Steve Lombardo on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Steve_Lombardo
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 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
But, considering the aging of the population, we should assume that an additional 100,000 to 130,000 people will leave the labor force each month...not because they are discouraged, but because they are retiring. It's unfortunate that the BLS doesn't ask people who were working or looking for work one month why they are no longer working or looking for work. But assuming these people are leaving the labor force because they are "discouraged" is folly, and doesn't jive with anything else published by the BLS.
What? This statement makes no sense. There are always discouraged workers, but their numbers are coming down. Discouraged workers are NOT people who "left the labor force the month before". They are people who DID NOT look for work in the previous month because they thought no work was available for them. They may not have looked for work the month before that or the month before that. In other words, people can be "discouraged workers" for up to a year before they no longer fit the definition. But there is NO evidence that those discouraged workers LEFT the labor force that month. The number of discouraged workers did increase by 31,000 in July, but this is a seasonally unadjusted number, so you can't really use it to make comparisons from one month to the next.
Now, 150,000 people did leave the labor force, but that number tends to go up and down. The number of people in the labor force is near an all-time high right now, but so is the number of people NOT in the labor force. There is absolutely NO evidence that people are leaving the labor force because they are "discouraged". We don't really know why people leave the labor force, as the BLS doesn't ask that question.
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There is no reason for this new law instituted by the Republicans because there is no history of voter fraud in this state at all. It is an embarrassment, and I along with my entire family have switched from the Republican party to the Democrats for this (as well as a few other reasons). It is a very scary situation, and we worry for the future of this once wonderful country of ours.
the GOP debates really did a whole lot of damage to their own brand, and Romney has not recovered from those.
The deficit was not trimmed as much as we all hoped due to the severity of the Great Recession. Remember that the BLS underestimated the number of jobs lost by over a million before Obama entered office.
How much are you getting paid to encourage voters to vote against their own best interests in electing the Richie Riches?
WI-2012 President: 48% Romney (R), 47% Obama (D) (Rasmussen 8/15)
OH-2012 President: 46% Romney (R), 44% Obama (D) (Purple Strategies 8/13-8/14)
FL-2012 President: 48% Romney (R), 47% Obama (D) (Purple Strategies 8/13-8/14)
VA-2012 President: 48% Romney (R), 45% Obama (D) (Purple Strategies 8/13-8/14)
IA-2012 President: 46% Romney (R), 44% Obama (D) (Rasmussen Reports 8/8 - 8/8)
Romeny 191 + FL 29 + WI 10 + OH 18 + VA 13 + IA 6 + NC 15 = 282
Republicans want the 2005 gop legislation to tax overseas profits at just 5% returned.
Republicans want more defense spending even after they doubled it during the Bush years.
Republicans want more tax cuts for the wealthy.
Republicans want to repeal the banking legislation that they watered down to start with.
Republicans - many serving today in DC, are the very ones responsible for passing legislation that lead to our economic collapse the fall of 2008 and want to return to the same policies.
No thanks.
Funny that Obama outspent Romney. That does not surprise me at all since that is Obama's favorite pastime. Also funny that this does not mention that Obama has been spending more than he has been taking in for the past two months. Sound like the past four years?
Also, in June Romney raised over $100 million while Obama raised just over $70 million. And the majority of both candidate's funds were donations of $250 or less from private individuals.
Let's get the facts, people!!
no, it sounds like you making stuff up.
An incumbent president seeking reelection generally only gains the votes of those who approve of him and sometimes not all of those.
Last week, Gallup released its state-by-state average job approval of President Obama for the first half of 2012 based on a rolling poll of about 90,000 Americans.
Nationally, Barack Obama’s job approval average is 46% approve, 46% disapprove and 8% undecided – which again is effectively disapproval. No president over the past seven decades of Gallup polling has won reelection with this level of disapproval.
When viewed state-by-state, Mr. Obama’s road to 270 electoral votes is even more daunting because his 46% support is concentrated in a comparatively few states.
Mr. Obama enjoys majority approval in just 13 states worth 173 electoral votes.
On the other side of the ledger, 33 states worth 328 electoral votes express higher disapproval than approval for Mr. Obama. Romney should win these.
In the middle are Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine and Oregon, where a plurality of between 47% to 49% approve of Mr. Obama and approvals outnumber disapprovals. If Mr. Obama takes all of the states where he enjoys majority approval and then sweeps these “tossup” states, he only earns 208 electoral votes – 62 short of what he needs.
http://thecitizenpamphleteer.wordpress.com/2012/08/04/the-road-to-270-gets-steep-for-president-obama/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_favorableunfavorable-643.html
In contrast, a president's job approval rate is almost always the same or higher than the percentage of vote he eventually gets. The only exception was Jimmy Carter, who gained a few percentage points of partisan Democrats who disapproved of him but would not vote for a Republican. That partisan Democrat base is the vast majority of Obama's support and not up for grabs. Where Obama is losing badly is among Independents. http://thecitizenpamphleteer.wordpress.com/2012/08/15/center-cannot-hold/