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When McCain Drops Out
When the Republicans choose their candidate on September 4th, there is a very real chance that they could throw the election into an unexpected chaos as they pull a genuine September Surprise.
I think there is every reason to believe John McCain won't be the nominee. Ok, let me say that again. McCain will not be the Republican candidate in November.
Here's how it could happen:
At some point in mid August, John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept his party's nomination for president. The reason will be health-related, and that may turn out to be the truth. Anyone who's seen him on stage these days knows he looks like he's about to keel over. And anyone who's been on a presidential campaign knows the physical demands are grueling and can be a challenge for a young man.
But excuses or facts hardly matters. He won't be accepting his party's nomination.
The reasons are simple. He can't win. Now that Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee -- the polls all show that McCain's pro-war stance and Bush endorsement make him a lost cause in November. That combined with soft stand on litmus test conservative issues make him an unpopular candidate among the base. I know some Democrats that think the Republicans are planning to let McCain lose and 'sit this one out' so that they can hang the democrats with a bad economy and a war that is a morass. But that just isn't how they play. They play to win every hand -- think about 2000 with a popular Democratic president and good economy and a solid VP running for president. Why did they put up Bush? And why did they fight so hard? Because, you don't ever throw a game. And they're not going to throw this one.
McCain won't be the nominee.
By August, they'll have done something to try and pick away at Obama's popularity. They'll emphasize race, or whatever they can to get him to appear less than perfect. Then, they'll bring out of the woodwork a surprise candidate who can shift the story fast. With just two months before the election -- the new candidate will have little time to be 'vetted' but will be shiny and new, and will get a lot of media attention as Obama's newness will have become -- by then -- tarnished or at least no longer the surprise that it has been as he unseated Hillary.
So, who will be the Republican candidate that faces Obama in the fall?
I've spoken to a number of friends who -- when presented with this set of facts respond: "but they don't have anybody else." That's simply not the case.
Joe Trippi, campaign consultant and most notably Howard Dean's campaign manager, said of McCain dropping out: "While crazy, this may be the best shot they have."
There are a whole list of Republicans who in many ways are more likely to energize the Republican base. One thing is certain -- there are candidates that will play to the core issues in ways that McCain simply can't.
Here's a list of names. Some you know, some you don't. But each of them knows their name is in play. Among them --
Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Colin Powell (fmr Sec. of State)
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman)
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor)
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas)
Charlie Crist (Florida Governor)
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor)
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Governor)
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina)
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota)
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska)
MIchael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor)
Ok, go ahead knock them down. One by one. See if you can really remove ALL these names from a list of candidates that are more likely to give Obama a run for his money. They'll come on the scene late, with a press corps that is looking for a horse race and a new story. Obama's frontrunner status will be upset, and there will be a set of variables that need to be calculated -- and tested against a weary electorate.
Is this supposition? Sure, but one grounded with enough history and observation to take it beyond conjecture and into the realm of the possible.
So -- before the Democrats go and game out how to beat McCain, it may be worth thinking about what happens when he says he won't accept the nomination. For the Republicans, a wide open convention would be both good theater and good politics.
Follow Steve Rosenbaum on Twitter: www.twitter.com/magnify
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Hillary Clinton.
My best friend has been saying for a couple of months that the GOP will not pick McCain at the convention. His health is too bad and his support from the base is too shallow. Well, this year sure is interesting.
Not only does he not look well, he doesn't have the stature, speaking ability or charisma. As well, he carries an immense ammount of "baggage" some of which has not been carted out, such as his part in the forced relocation of the Arizona Navajo Indians and the awarding of mining rights to their land to Peabody Mining who have contributed heavily to all of McCain's reelection campaigns.
A very good chance that Rosenbaum is right. Should Mc Cain continue to be the Republican nominee, I predict Obama will carry 40 states in a landslide never equaled.
But imagine the backlash if they give Republican voters the finger and put somebody else in his place.
Marylin-freaking-Musgrave?
God help us all
I live in her district, and she barely got reelected in her heavily gerrymandered "safe Republican" district. Ain't gonna happen....
I think you can scratch Condoleeza Rice, Colin Powell and Dick Lugar off that list I dont see them being party to this kind of switch and bait. They have too much integrity for that sort of stuff.
If anything I'm going with Tom Pawlenty he is young fresh and new and since he will be a sort of white version of Obama it might be easier for many particularly whites to trust him.
I think the danger in this strategy comes from the fact that Obama is historical candidate not many people is going to want to go down in history as someone who thwarted America's electing of the first AA. I think thats why the person from the McCain campaign resign when Obama became the nominee who wants to 100 years from now be seen as someone who obstructed progress particulary since I think an AA president is a once in a lifetime thing.
Carol
Something that doesn't get mentioned much (if at all) is Colin Powell's attempt to cover up the My Lai Massacre. That wasn't integrity.
George dropping Jeb's name the other day was frightening to me.
Yeah -- I noticed that, too.
McCain is in bed with ENRON...he will never be elected.. or any republican for that matter.
Want to know why oil is out of whack....listen
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/#25252591
Rosenbaum: "He won't be accepting his party's nomination. The reasons are simple. He can't win."
I only count one reason there. Maybe you elided the second, viz., "And he believes - with good reason - that he can't win". If this line is pursued, I guess the idea might be that, being the rational chap he is, McCain will accordingly withdraw. Right. Sure he will.
But no, maybe that's not the lne you're pursuing. For you continue:
"They [the Republicans] play to win every hand -- think about 2000 with a popular Democratic president and good economy and a solid VP running for president. Why did they put up Bush? And why did they fight so hard? Because, you don't ever throw a game. And they're not going to throw this one."
So, on the understanding this passage promotes, it's not so much what McCain comes to believe about his chances of winning, it's rather what the GOP heavies come to believe. So the idea is that they're going to give him the toss. I guess this is because they would have come to believe that doing so would IMPROVE their chances of winning. Some Kool-aid! With two months to go to the election? And even if they did come to believe this, exactly how would they bring this little caper off? What's the mechanism, what are the details, even drawn roughly? To the extent that this piece floats at all, it is made over-bouyant by its inspecificity.
I don't see McCain withdrawing. The man sold his soul and let them smear his family all for this run at the presidency. He hugged his enemy and campaigned for him. McCain gave up his integrity and his individuality for this. He ain't going away.
How about the wingnut pundits combined with the money folks giving him a shove off the cliff? If the polls are bad enough which is very very possible, look for a quiet putsch and a convention draft of a "true conservative" who will take one for the team but restore the neocon stranglehold.
I can knock em all out except two. Romney and Huckabee. Both were in the primaries. Romney already has 20 million dollars invested in this race. A million or two more in arm twisting money could do the trick. Huckabee has the radical right religous nuts in his camp and they are sooooo close to having their own personal supreme court.
I agree McCain does not look good out there on the stump. Like Bush, he likes to take his weekends off and lots of his "campaigning " days are listed as "press availability". When it gets close to the finish line, he will have a lot of trouble keeping up; if he makes it that far.
Where is Jeb??
We could not only have a THIRD TERM we could have a FOURTH TERM
Wow imagine Amerika then!
We cannot have another term of Republican rule. We would likely find out why they are building POW camps in the U.S.
Let me make this really easy for everybody who read this article:
THE REPUBLICANS DON'T HAVE AN 'OBAMA' ON THEIR TEAM. Not one of those names n that list will energize and excite the voters as much as Obama does. I do think the GOP is sitting this election out. McCain's campaign doesn't even act like they are seriously trying to win this election. Period.
All of these potential GOP candidates are one and the same. All of them are third Bush terms.
um, i am an Obama supporter, but I would vote for Colin Powell over Obama.
(sorry Barrack)
What nonsense! Are you a Democrat or a conservative? Why would you vote for Powell over Obama? Do you know the difference between Democrats and Republicans? Do you not remember Powell testifying about WMD's and holding up that vile of what was supposedly anthrax? Do you want someone who has opposed the war from the start and presented clear and logical reasons for that opposition, or would you rather have someone who was so spineless as to do the bidding of the Bush administration, even when they were privy to knowledge that countered the evidence which they, themselves, were presenting as indisputable fact? Use your head. For Christ's sake, just because they are both African American doesn't mean they are interchangeable.
ChristieZ you are right. Remember there are one hell of a lot of trolls out there trying to discredit our nominee! Powell by supporting a lie he new was a fabrication became one of the worst traitors of America and its citizens.to ever come down the pike. He was scared to death of Cheney and he showed his cowardice sitting in that chair before the UN with the leader of the the CIA glaring over his shoulder like the watchdog that he was for the most dispicable human to ever hold office in America. Powell was afraid of the Bush Cheney Rove operatives and you could see it on his face. He is in hiding now keeping his traitorous mealy mouth shut.
I liked Colin Powell before he kept his mouth shut and allowed Bush to take this whole country into a war Powell knew in his heart was wrong. He lost a lot of credibility on that one. He has shown he won't make the tough decision. Also, if he had wanted it, he should've run back in 2000 - he was afraid for himself and his family. And Powell certainly doesn't represent the Bush era GOP.
The Republicans will switch to Chuck Hagel and hope they can find a VP who is not tarnished by any association with Bush or Cheney. Other wise they will go down with that same rating that Bush has now.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Obama make him Secy of Defense in his administration with orders to get us out of Iraq. It fits with Powell's philosophy of overwhelming strength and have an exit strategy.
You would vote for the man who helped sell America the war?
Not enough integrity for me, and poor judgment. The man sold out. He is a terrible choice.
Another episode of Theater of the Bizzare. It could happen, who knows?
The neocons like him for the same reason they liked Bush. They can fill the offices of VP and Secretary of Defense with their ilk to do what they want and he doesn't have the faculties to interfere. He's already proven on the campaign trail he will flip on any and every issue to say whatever they want him to say.
But they have three problems they didn't anticipate:
1) Despite the best efforts of everyone from Rush to Andrew Coulter, they're not running against Hillary. They knew they had a much better chance getting people to come out to vote against her if not for McSame.
2) With $4.50 gas, a large number of sleeping Americans stopped hitting the snooze button and decided to get a little more information than they've been getting on Faux 'news' sound bites.
3) Barack Obama.
Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State) - totally damaged by Bush
Colin Powell (fmr Sec. of State) - damaged by Bush and might be supporting Obama anyway
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman) - Who?
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor) - One of the better bets, but he was getting rejected by the voters in McCain's favor. But he'd be a GOP choice for sure, he's more "their guy"
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas) - He might play well with evangelicals, but some of his statements will knock him out (amend the Constitution to God's law).
Charlie Crist (Florida Governor) - Just flip-flopped on coastal drilling as well
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor) - Given that he's a top choice on the VP list, he's got a shot.
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Governor) - If Obama's too young and inexperienced, what's this guy? He's not even 40 yet. He got into the House in 2004 because Vitter moved to the Senate, won reelection once, and a year later is governor, so he's not even a year on that job.
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina) - See Musgrave, but maybe not so much
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota) - Probably the best shot...almost a perfect counterpoint to Obama. Has attention because he beat Daschle.
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana) - Nope...besides being older, I think he'd be too fond of Obama to run (they co-sponsored the nuclear nonproliferation bill)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska) - You're kidding, right? Too independent.
MIchael Bloomberg (NYC
Who gets put in will depend on who forces McCain out. McCain is certainly NOT going to volunteer to step aside, but he IS liable to being pushed. The power brokers will be more interested in a corporate conservative than someone with the evangelical bonafides (although, like Reagan, he'll have to play well to them). I agree pretty much with kmac23va, above, and the reasoning on each, although I'd give Charlie Crist more of a chance than kmac23va does.
I've been saying for weeks, now, that McCain could very well NOT be the nominee.
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