When McCain Drops Out

When the Republicans choose their candidate on September 4th, there is a very real chance that they could throw the election into an unexpected chaos as they pull a genuine September Surprise.

I think there is every reason to believe John McCain won't be the nominee. Ok, let me say that again. McCain will not be the Republican candidate in November.

Here's how it could happen:

At some point in mid August, John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept his party's nomination for president. The reason will be health-related, and that may turn out to be the truth. Anyone who's seen him on stage these days knows he looks like he's about to keel over. And anyone who's been on a presidential campaign knows the physical demands are grueling and can be a challenge for a young man.

But excuses or facts hardly matters. He won't be accepting his party's nomination.

The reasons are simple. He can't win. Now that Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee -- the polls all show that McCain's pro-war stance and Bush endorsement make him a lost cause in November. That combined with soft stand on litmus test conservative issues make him an unpopular candidate among the base. I know some Democrats that think the Republicans are planning to let McCain lose and 'sit this one out' so that they can hang the democrats with a bad economy and a war that is a morass. But that just isn't how they play. They play to win every hand -- think about 2000 with a popular Democratic president and good economy and a solid VP running for president. Why did they put up Bush? And why did they fight so hard? Because, you don't ever throw a game. And they're not going to throw this one.

McCain won't be the nominee.

By August, they'll have done something to try and pick away at Obama's popularity. They'll emphasize race, or whatever they can to get him to appear less than perfect. Then, they'll bring out of the woodwork a surprise candidate who can shift the story fast. With just two months before the election -- the new candidate will have little time to be 'vetted' but will be shiny and new, and will get a lot of media attention as Obama's newness will have become -- by then -- tarnished or at least no longer the surprise that it has been as he unseated Hillary.

So, who will be the Republican candidate that faces Obama in the fall?

I've spoken to a number of friends who -- when presented with this set of facts respond: "but they don't have anybody else." That's simply not the case.

Joe Trippi, campaign consultant and most notably Howard Dean's campaign manager, said of McCain dropping out: "While crazy, this may be the best shot they have."

There are a whole list of Republicans who in many ways are more likely to energize the Republican base. One thing is certain -- there are candidates that will play to the core issues in ways that McCain simply can't.

Here's a list of names. Some you know, some you don't. But each of them knows their name is in play. Among them --

Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Colin Powell (fmr Sec. of State)
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman)
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor)
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas)
Charlie Crist (Florida Governor)
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor)
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Governor)
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina)
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota)
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska)
MIchael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor)

Ok, go ahead knock them down. One by one. See if you can really remove ALL these names from a list of candidates that are more likely to give Obama a run for his money. They'll come on the scene late, with a press corps that is looking for a horse race and a new story. Obama's frontrunner status will be upset, and there will be a set of variables that need to be calculated -- and tested against a weary electorate.

Is this supposition? Sure, but one grounded with enough history and observation to take it beyond conjecture and into the realm of the possible.

So -- before the Democrats go and game out how to beat McCain, it may be worth thinking about what happens when he says he won't accept the nomination. For the Republicans, a wide open convention would be both good theater and good politics.

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Comments

[frantaylor]

What about all those disenfranchised voters?

[Alwaysrightneverwrong]

McCain despite being an absolute inept stiff as a candidate, is by far the best the republicans have. He is an umprincipled hack who will change positions on a dime depending on his mood and the audience.

As an old 5 foot nine, bottom-of-­the-class, inarticulate, coot running against the young, charismatic, articulate, Harvard educated, leader it will be a major blowout. But MccAin is still by far the best the republicans have got this time.

They are in the deep doodoo this year and no one can get them out of it, not even Bin Laden.

[Suthngal]

Sorry you have to be delusional or inept to believe your own words. McCain is far the worse candidate that the GOP has to offer. That is why many like me are deflecting and voting for the Dem nominee. This is the reason that so many GOP members are upset and refuse to either endorse or vote for him.

[allwrite]

If you could find one of those disaffected Hilary supporters who will be voting Republican, you could enter into a contract that neither of you would bother going to the polls. Save time and gas. You would need to keep one another in sight however, to be sure that neither of you broke the contract. How about an all day 'Snit Party" on election day?

[philosopherkingtomas]

Bob Kellerher for President!

[gevan]

I couldn't possibly knock down Marylin Musgrave, because I have NEVER heard of her and have no idea who she is or what she might stand for. If Colin Powell could be proded into electoral politics by the notion of running against someone is also "of color", it certainly would make it interesting. But having been fooled once before on Iraq, even he has flaws.

[Tulka2]

Oh wow. We are not used to winning are we? Forget Rice because she is not up to it. Forget Colin Powell because he would not cross Obama... as a matter of fact...? I look for Powell to be named to Obama's inner circle after the election. As for the rest? Very good luck to them. You are right that the idiot box gang would adore it.

[LejandroCruz]

Many activists in the GOP, including myself, *want* McCain to lose, because the party has become this war-hawk, dominionist, big government, Straussian nightmare and we want it back. The Neo-cons, in other words, crashed the family car and now we can't afford milk. These party insiders need to be driven out into the frigid late November cold, and the only way we can see that happening is a major, humiliating defeat in the fall. And yes, Obama will be blamed for the economic mess--but by these same discredited neocons, and not by the real fiscal conservative activists. This mess was set up by Greenspan and inherited by Bernanke, and the Federal Reserve deserves all of the credit there. Who knows? Maybe Obama would have the guts to take on the Fed. Though a wide-open convention would stir things up and maybe give us a better candidate, I seriously doubt it will happen. I'm planning to sit this election out and let Obama win, for all the reasons above.

[Alfannell]

One problem for the Republican Party is you have another convention which is being held by Ron Paul.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/06/17/international/i152402D47.DTL&type=politics

[olivia]

Call me crazy, and I know he is batshit crazy, but I would take Ron Paul over John McCain any day.

[debwarot]

Interesting. But I like Obama's odds against McCaion just fine, thank you.

[pamsmad]

The Republicans never admit they are wrong, and so will never push McCain out. What we liberals are not willing to face is that Hillary has not released her delegates. She is just waiting for sufficient Republiscan slander to undercut Obama's credibility, so that she can convince the convention delegates to nominate her. Why else would she have refused to release her delegates during her so-called 'concession speech?'

[christieZ]

Me too.

[mmerose]

Thom Hartmann predicted Chuck Hagel months ago.

[LAWTON]

Hagel would be their best bet but the righteous wingers would rather go to hell in a hand basket than elect some one who had one iota of integrity and a brain loaded with common sense and an independent nature they could not control.

[RatgurlSD]

I was just saying last night that, with all of his negatives, it seems as though the Republicans were setting up McCain for a seriously grandiose loss of gigantic proportion. This only feeds into that theory!

[xmw]

Believe it or not my sister an I have toyed with this though. We never thoguht he may drop out but rather that he is such an embarassment to the GOP that they may nominate someone else at the convention. The GOP is not happy with McCain so I do allow myself to believ anything could happen. But McCain will never surrender my friends.

[GaNavy]

Not a chance in the world. The Republicans have no candidates, no dieas, and no chance.

And while we're at it, what's the point of this article? Steve, did you just have to have 250 words by noon? This is a complete non-story, with the same vague attributions that made that guy's article in Vanity Fair (much as I wanted to believe it) a fraud.

You can make just as strong a case for the idea that McCain is the only Republican who would have a chance against any Democrat.

[synapse369]

Has anyone thought that the R's don't really care who the candidate is because W isn't planning on leaving? All it tales is a "disaster". a declaration of martial law, and W putting into effect the "Continuity of Leadership" executive order he put in place.

Strange and scary,
but W just doesn't act like he's winding down his admin. He's working overtime to continue dismantling the Constitution, sounding the drums of war with Iran and negotiating a long term deal with Iraq.

I would not put it past the war criminal formerly know as POTUS to do it.

[adzeman]

If he drops out(or as likely-pushed), don't look for a reasonable candidate like some of the listed above. No, it will be a pedigreed uber-conservative. A Club for Growth, Pat Robertson approved warmonger. Because the powers-to-be rather maintain ideological purity than win.
I agree whole-heartedly with the premise, right wing pundits have been circling around this idea for a couple of months.

[mmerose]

Chick Hagel has uber-conservative creds on the social, Supreme Court issues, but steals Obama's thunder on the Iraq invasion, but has the military creds to now be able to say, now that were in it, trust me to run it right.

[belikejeanvaljean]

If the GOP had been smart, it would have pushed Hagel to the top. They might have had a fighting chance in November if Hagel was running. The neocons who have taken over the party would never want him as the candidate, however. And replacing McCain would be disruptive and controversial since the voters had not made the choice. There's no way the GOP can win in the fall, no matter what they do.

I almost feel sorry for McCain. Yeah, I said "almost".

[dayindalife]

headline correction; when pigs fly.
The first five are a fab five fantasy for all of us who are the least bit progressive. what a fantastic landslide, bigger than Regan, for Barack.I'l­l print this article,put it under my pillow an dream for it every night

[idealist100]

Chuck Hagel would be a much more formidable opponent for Obama. Obama's main selling point - that he was against Iraq from the beginning - is a talking point that Hagel could steel away from him, since he was too.

and, I think the writer is correct about the honeymoon period, the media seizing on a new horse race, and the worn out electorate all working against Obama down the last stretch.

[derbes]

This is a fantasy.

Unless McCain dies or is seriously incapacitated by a stroke or cancer, he's their guy. Because he is absolutely the best they've got.

The Republicans have no chance in this election. None.

Gas at $5. Iraq continuing indefinitely. More and more evil exposed from this administration. Economy in a shambles, foreclosures epidemic. Even if Osama decides to pay us a visit, Team Blue will use it to remind people that Bush completely ignored him to pursue his excellent adventure in Iraq.

And, God forbid, if something happens to Barack, the Republicans will lose 50-zip.

[Pollitrix]

Two words JEB BUSH

[livesimply]

Bwaahahaha­ha......

[BatedBreath]

I don't know whether tl laugh or cry. Either way it's scary.

[Alwaysrightneverwrong]

How about W's dad? A comeback for the second term he never got to serve. Every Bush deserves two terms!

[DeadCivilian]

Why not Marvin? Bwaahhahahah

[olivia]

I think Bush fatigue will prevent that. Even Republicans are sick of Bushes.