When McCain Drops Out

When the Republicans choose their candidate on September 4th, there is a very real chance that they could throw the election into an unexpected chaos as they pull a genuine September Surprise.

I think there is every reason to believe John McCain won't be the nominee. Ok, let me say that again. McCain will not be the Republican candidate in November.

Here's how it could happen:

At some point in mid August, John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept his party's nomination for president. The reason will be health-related, and that may turn out to be the truth. Anyone who's seen him on stage these days knows he looks like he's about to keel over. And anyone who's been on a presidential campaign knows the physical demands are grueling and can be a challenge for a young man.

But excuses or facts hardly matters. He won't be accepting his party's nomination.

The reasons are simple. He can't win. Now that Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee -- the polls all show that McCain's pro-war stance and Bush endorsement make him a lost cause in November. That combined with soft stand on litmus test conservative issues make him an unpopular candidate among the base. I know some Democrats that think the Republicans are planning to let McCain lose and 'sit this one out' so that they can hang the democrats with a bad economy and a war that is a morass. But that just isn't how they play. They play to win every hand -- think about 2000 with a popular Democratic president and good economy and a solid VP running for president. Why did they put up Bush? And why did they fight so hard? Because, you don't ever throw a game. And they're not going to throw this one.

McCain won't be the nominee.

By August, they'll have done something to try and pick away at Obama's popularity. They'll emphasize race, or whatever they can to get him to appear less than perfect. Then, they'll bring out of the woodwork a surprise candidate who can shift the story fast. With just two months before the election -- the new candidate will have little time to be 'vetted' but will be shiny and new, and will get a lot of media attention as Obama's newness will have become -- by then -- tarnished or at least no longer the surprise that it has been as he unseated Hillary.

So, who will be the Republican candidate that faces Obama in the fall?

I've spoken to a number of friends who -- when presented with this set of facts respond: "but they don't have anybody else." That's simply not the case.

Joe Trippi, campaign consultant and most notably Howard Dean's campaign manager, said of McCain dropping out: "While crazy, this may be the best shot they have."

There are a whole list of Republicans who in many ways are more likely to energize the Republican base. One thing is certain -- there are candidates that will play to the core issues in ways that McCain simply can't.

Here's a list of names. Some you know, some you don't. But each of them knows their name is in play. Among them --

Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Colin Powell (fmr Sec. of State)
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman)
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor)
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas)
Charlie Crist (Florida Governor)
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor)
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Governor)
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina)
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota)
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska)
MIchael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor)

Ok, go ahead knock them down. One by one. See if you can really remove ALL these names from a list of candidates that are more likely to give Obama a run for his money. They'll come on the scene late, with a press corps that is looking for a horse race and a new story. Obama's frontrunner status will be upset, and there will be a set of variables that need to be calculated -- and tested against a weary electorate.

Is this supposition? Sure, but one grounded with enough history and observation to take it beyond conjecture and into the realm of the possible.

So -- before the Democrats go and game out how to beat McCain, it may be worth thinking about what happens when he says he won't accept the nomination. For the Republicans, a wide open convention would be both good theater and good politics.

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Comments

[Dumbluck]

Very interesting and disturbing observation. If something "happened" to McCain, a successful terrorist attack on him, for example, something that would cause swing voters and fence sitters to "rally round the flag," Obama wouldn't stand a chance, especially if it happened late enough in the race to forego any investigation. A scenerio akin to "Manchurian Candidate" (the good one, not the one just made), the GOP choice for VP would sweep into office.

[Sandlynn]

It is an interesting theory but even if it were to occur, I doubt any of those people you mentioned who might like to run have a shot at winning - either too independent for the base (e.g., Hagel) or too wacko for the independents (e.g.,Huckabee). Condi and Colin have empahtically said they won't run, and they certainly won't run against Obama. Also, where does this new nominee get the money to beat Obama? How much fundraising can this person do between August and October? Especially for the less well known people on the list, massive amounts of money would have to be spent to get the electorate comfortable with him/her in the couple of months before the election. They probably should focus on a strong (in more ways than one) VP candidate whom their voters feel comfortable could take over if necessary.

[bg1]

Hagel would be the GOP's strongest shot. He has opposed Bush on Iraq, and is one of the more reasonable sounding Republicans.

[adzeman]

They'd rather lose than compromise with a moderate.

[mmerose]

Hagel isn't "moderate" on anything but Iraq, and that was about the invasion. He is also an old Bush family consiglieri, and got elected to the Senate by voting machines provided by the company he was CEO of. A perfect profile. Be afraid, be very afraid.

[brrichter]

The base will never go for any anti-war candidate. Too much money there.

[Keith52]

Hmmm. Sounds feasible. Maybe we should do the vetting now. The worst thing we could do is assume...

[FlyingEagel]

This has crossed my mind also. If they pick Mike Huckabee . ..watch out! I believe he is the strongest out of all the others you mention.

[Pollitrix]

Huck has already had his chance. I am always amazed how when people are running no one wants them Romney is now the most conservative of conservatives, yet when it came time to make him the nominee (nothing)

Huckabee a evangelical, governor accused of being to liberal. Not he is the staunchest conservative the GOP has ever had.

Hillary Clinton, in the beginning the same women that said they would never vote for the (you fill in the blank) can't breathe becasue she is not their nominee

People are so FICKLED.

[Davwbaird]

but they are republicans and have no organization.

[Knowledgeseeker]

There is nothing republicans have to offer that could make this country better. they already run the it for eight years and they almost destroy its economy, not the mention this country reputation it have gained form the Illegal Iraqi war....
I'm sure most American would not want to take chance with another republican...
republicans are just too corrupt.

[RatgurlSD]

Truer words were never spoken!

[mmerose]

The Republicans I know pay lip service to impeaching Bush: for not closing the borders! But they would vote for him again to doomsday for the SUPREME COURT. Notice gay marriage is in the news again just in time. Of course it's crazy, but an awful lot of our fellow citizens will stand in soup lines and bank run lines and gas station lines and proudly decree, "but I had to vote for (Republican whoever) because of those millions of murdered babies! (They also believe that if all those babies had been born, there would be no economic problems, because they all would have been productive, upstanding, Christian citizens. I kid you not.)

[OldHeathen]

The only way Id vote republican is if Ron Paul were on the top of the ticket.

As long as the Neo Cons are in control , I'm voting for Obama.

[progressivepam]

I have never been convinced that we will have McCain as the candidate. This is a very viable theory. Whether or not he gets the nomination, I'm not sure McCain can get through the process...

Interesting times we live in...

[EinChicago]

Any list with Musgrave on it automatically loses credibility.

[OldPedagogue]

I've always thought this plausible. Heck, maybe even planned. Lugar would be quite a threat , and suspect Bloomberg would not reject being drafted. If McCain with all of his weaknesses can stay less than double digits behind Obama, I totally see either Bloomberg or Lugar as realistic threats. So be afraid, very afraid. One can only hope that Barack Obama gets his fiscal and economic policies soundly endorsed by leading, non-partisan economists and then is able to frequently explain those policies to the voters clearly and convincingly.

[desertdweller]

And I thought only the Dems used "stalking horses."

[shieldvulf]

What, no mention of Fred Thompson? He was once "the man to beat." Besides, don't frightened Rs usually run to a "Law and Order" candidate?

[XME]

OK, now you're freaking me out. As I listened to him speaking yesterday about his "cancelled fundraiser", noticed that he seemed a little more "subdued" than usual. McCain is the PERFECT candidate...to run against!

Sadly, there's nothing I wouldn't put past Republicans, and we all know they aren't enthused by McCain.

[pakaal]

A Jindal/Rice ticket! Bwa ha ha!

Actually, I really like this sort of "what if" story. It's not far fetched at all, and would really change the dynamics of the General. The good news is that most of these folks have had a lot of scrutiny on them already (in particular the other Republican presidential candidates listed). Not that he wouldn't be a strong candidate, but personally, I find it a lot harder to believe Powell would consider running than I do that McCain would drop out.

While the idea of "anyone but McCain" makes sense for the Republican party, the other contenders on the list have their own history to fight against as well (not to mention many have already been discussed as McCain VP choices, like Jindal and Rice). I doubt many of the folks on the list have high hopes for any Republican winning against Obama. Otherwise, wouldn't they have already stepped up, or at least been approached by their party to run?

Still, the idea of putting a replacement batter in is good, at least in a "well, it couldn't get any worse" sense.

[lazywhiteamerican]

Sure they could do worse. Stark raving creationist Huckabee for example...

[desertdweller]

At least they would get the "intelligent design" vote....