When McCain Drops Out
When the Republicans choose their candidate on September 4th, there is a very real chance that they could throw the election into an unexpected chaos as they pull a genuine September Surprise.
I think there is every reason to believe John McCain won't be the nominee. Ok, let me say that again. McCain will not be the Republican candidate in November.
Here's how it could happen:
At some point in mid August, John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept his party's nomination for president. The reason will be health-related, and that may turn out to be the truth. Anyone who's seen him on stage these days knows he looks like he's about to keel over. And anyone who's been on a presidential campaign knows the physical demands are grueling and can be a challenge for a young man.
But excuses or facts hardly matters. He won't be accepting his party's nomination.
The reasons are simple. He can't win. Now that Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee -- the polls all show that McCain's pro-war stance and Bush endorsement make him a lost cause in November. That combined with soft stand on litmus test conservative issues make him an unpopular candidate among the base. I know some Democrats that think the Republicans are planning to let McCain lose and 'sit this one out' so that they can hang the democrats with a bad economy and a war that is a morass. But that just isn't how they play. They play to win every hand -- think about 2000 with a popular Democratic president and good economy and a solid VP running for president. Why did they put up Bush? And why did they fight so hard? Because, you don't ever throw a game. And they're not going to throw this one.
McCain won't be the nominee.
By August, they'll have done something to try and pick away at Obama's popularity. They'll emphasize race, or whatever they can to get him to appear less than perfect. Then, they'll bring out of the woodwork a surprise candidate who can shift the story fast. With just two months before the election -- the new candidate will have little time to be 'vetted' but will be shiny and new, and will get a lot of media attention as Obama's newness will have become -- by then -- tarnished or at least no longer the surprise that it has been as he unseated Hillary.
So, who will be the Republican candidate that faces Obama in the fall?
I've spoken to a number of friends who -- when presented with this set of facts respond: "but they don't have anybody else." That's simply not the case.
Joe Trippi, campaign consultant and most notably Howard Dean's campaign manager, said of McCain dropping out: "While crazy, this may be the best shot they have."
There are a whole list of Republicans who in many ways are more likely to energize the Republican base. One thing is certain -- there are candidates that will play to the core issues in ways that McCain simply can't.
Here's a list of names. Some you know, some you don't. But each of them knows their name is in play. Among them --
Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Colin Powell (fmr Sec. of State)
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman)
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor)
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas)
Charlie Crist (Florida Governor)
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor)
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Governor)
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina)
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota)
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska)
MIchael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor)
Ok, go ahead knock them down. One by one. See if you can really remove ALL these names from a list of candidates that are more likely to give Obama a run for his money. They'll come on the scene late, with a press corps that is looking for a horse race and a new story. Obama's frontrunner status will be upset, and there will be a set of variables that need to be calculated -- and tested against a weary electorate.
Is this supposition? Sure, but one grounded with enough history and observation to take it beyond conjecture and into the realm of the possible.
So -- before the Democrats go and game out how to beat McCain, it may be worth thinking about what happens when he says he won't accept the nomination. For the Republicans, a wide open convention would be both good theater and good politics.
Follow Steve Rosenbaum on Twitter: www.twitter.com/magnify
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There is no one in the Rethuglican Party with a conscience. Of course they'd push Jeb in there if possible!
Yes, there are several large pockets (pun intended) of support for J.e.b., and especially from his ever-lovin' bro in the WH.
As if the Jeb idea isn't bad enough, a Musgrave nomination will have this Coloradoan seriously learning French and getting the hell out of Dodge.
Bush was just talking about how great it would be to have Jeb be part of the Bush Legacy.
When the Republicans have conceded in the past that the presidential election was a lost cause--1964, 1976, 1996--they've used the convention to shore up their ideological levees. Usually this has succeeded in assuring a Republican victory for the next election cycle. Unfortunately, when the Democrats have tried to regroup in the face of a seemingly indomitable foe--Nixon, Reagan, Bush 41, Bush 43--they have commonly doomed their own fate for a long time to come.
If the Republican party makes the blunder of stepping away from McCain this summer, they will have taken a page from the Democratic party book. Instead, they will probably stick with the winner of their primaries and use the opportunity to devise a strategy that recaptures a majority of the U.S. electorate. The nomination of McCain in 2008 will probably mean stronger party support for the Democrats' opponent four years later. Obama should win this year, but he will have to prepare for a tough reelection fight.
I've often thought that McCain might have to drop out for health reasons. And I assumed it would throw the party into a tailspin (a continued tailspin). But I never thought about it from this perspective. Don't see how two months with a relative "unknown" would be enough time - but with someone like Powell or Bloomberg, I could see how they might think they could change things around.
GOOD THING that the Obama Campaign is so smart - they've probably given great thought to scenarios such as this one - no doubt they have many Plan B's for various attacks and changes.
did anyone else notice that during jindals exorcism that he held a woman against her will then chased after her and brought her back against her will? that is kidnapping and this freaky behavior scares the crap outta me.
If she even thought she could win, Hillary would become a Republican.
Chuck Hagel is not going to run against Obama; heck, his wife endorsed Obama.
Colin Powell is not going to run.
Condoleezza Rice will lose. She has been a deplorable Secretary of State and an even worse National Security adviser.
Bobby Jindal is only thirty-six and has some odd beliefs. There is chatter about his participation in an exorcism. His beliefs might not be a major issue in a few years, but people are sick of religiosity and fundamentalism this election. The same premise applies to the Huckster.
Crist is not presidential material.
Romney is the best way to motivate the Evangelicals to vote for Obama.
The Republicans don’t have anyone. If they try to throw in a September surprise, it will help them lose by a larger margin.
Remember the pitiful "no one" joke they ran in 2000? Rosenbaum's idea is of course crazy (like a fox) but it may be the only chance the Repubs have this year. Be very afraid...
Only one big problem with everyone on this list.
They are Republicans... (or members of the Republic Party as I like to call them)
Game over.
Victor? Barack Obama DEMOCRATIC PARTY
The name my hubby gave them is the Retuglicans, now isn't that even more expressive. His other favorite for another group is the Telebanglists. I think that is also fitting for those that support McBush
Jeb Bush...ick!
Could this be Alan Keyes big moment? ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.
The Republicans already decided that they f**ed up the country long enough to "almost' go to jail!!! They need the cleaning crew now to come and get rid of their mess! This article is total BS.... McCain is the sacrificial lamb... all you need to do is see how he got the nomination... pretty much without any opposition! Unless some earthshaking event takes place between now and November, Obama will win in a landslide as expected! But when you think about what he's inheriting, it makes you wonder why he even wants it! LOL
Laura Bush, she has the experience!
Oh yeah, and don't rule out Lieberman!
Lieberman is anyone's dog who will pet him. When you see McCain, you see Lieberman lickspitting like a lap dog hoping McCain will choose him as his running mate. He's a man with no party, the Democrats worst enemy, and the only reason they don't strip him of his committees is because it would cause us to lose the majority. If we get more Democrats this upcoming election, and I believe we will, they'll toss him to the dogs. He's a traitor.
Steve has this right. McCain is wilting before our eyes. The Republican Party will replace him with a True Believer, someone with strong ties to the Evangelicals and hard conservative wings of the party. They will get out the vote. They will motivate the media of the right wing. They will put on a strong push to control the country "for its own good." On taxes, the war, social issues, and media savvy, only one candidate stands out. Newt. Plus a VP with a measure of respect from independents, like Hagel or Lugar or even Jeb Bush. Or a female, any female. The white vote and the right vote will swing the election. Of course, it really doesn't matter who gets the most votes because the Republicans control the machines that count the votes. Expect "irregularities."
I actually said the same thing here on Huff about 3 weeks ago...
scares me to death
Do we...we DO need Election Observers...computer geek-Norwegian election observers............
Well, for sure desperate people will do desperate things, but Condi's repeated hyping and lying about the rationale for Iraq alone would sink her ship, Powell's slogan would be: "I was duped, too;" Huckabee appeals to extreme religionists, only, and is as clueless about foreign affairs as Bush was.
Marilyn Musgrave too obscure-- it's taken Obama more than a year to become a national name;
Mitt Romney, right, let's go live in a polygamist commune in west Texas; Charlie Crist over-rated Arnie wannabe; Tim Pawlenty...whozat?; Bobby Jindal, secretly a Moslum; Mark Sanford...and sons?; John Thune , backbencher; Dick Lugar, okay name recognition, but looks older than McCain; Chuck Hagel would alienate the base due to vigorous criticism of Bush on the occupation of Iraq, and Bloomberg? He's not even a Republican, but he could buy his way in. Except he likes Obama and wouldn't do it.
I think that if Cheney changed his stance about not running, he would solidify the base.
Since we're talking wild-ass fantasies, let's add another name: Joe Lieberman.
He's burnt nearly all his Democratic bridges, and is already scheduled to speak at the Republican convention. And he's just fine with the GOP base in areas like family values, the war, support for Israel, etc.
Throw in someone like Condi or Chuck Hagel as the Veep candidate and present it as a bi-partisan "National Unity" ticket that will "save" the country from the incredible risks of the left-leaning, inexperienced BHO.
Don't believe it? Think about what he did to the primary-winning Democrat when he ran as a centrist "Independent' in Connecticut.
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