When McCain Drops Out
When the Republicans choose their candidate on September 4th, there is a very real chance that they could throw the election into an unexpected chaos as they pull a genuine September Surprise.
I think there is every reason to believe John McCain won't be the nominee. Ok, let me say that again. McCain will not be the Republican candidate in November.
Here's how it could happen:
At some point in mid August, John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept his party's nomination for president. The reason will be health-related, and that may turn out to be the truth. Anyone who's seen him on stage these days knows he looks like he's about to keel over. And anyone who's been on a presidential campaign knows the physical demands are grueling and can be a challenge for a young man.
But excuses or facts hardly matters. He won't be accepting his party's nomination.
The reasons are simple. He can't win. Now that Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee -- the polls all show that McCain's pro-war stance and Bush endorsement make him a lost cause in November. That combined with soft stand on litmus test conservative issues make him an unpopular candidate among the base. I know some Democrats that think the Republicans are planning to let McCain lose and 'sit this one out' so that they can hang the democrats with a bad economy and a war that is a morass. But that just isn't how they play. They play to win every hand -- think about 2000 with a popular Democratic president and good economy and a solid VP running for president. Why did they put up Bush? And why did they fight so hard? Because, you don't ever throw a game. And they're not going to throw this one.
McCain won't be the nominee.
By August, they'll have done something to try and pick away at Obama's popularity. They'll emphasize race, or whatever they can to get him to appear less than perfect. Then, they'll bring out of the woodwork a surprise candidate who can shift the story fast. With just two months before the election -- the new candidate will have little time to be 'vetted' but will be shiny and new, and will get a lot of media attention as Obama's newness will have become -- by then -- tarnished or at least no longer the surprise that it has been as he unseated Hillary.
So, who will be the Republican candidate that faces Obama in the fall?
I've spoken to a number of friends who -- when presented with this set of facts respond: "but they don't have anybody else." That's simply not the case.
Joe Trippi, campaign consultant and most notably Howard Dean's campaign manager, said of McCain dropping out: "While crazy, this may be the best shot they have."
There are a whole list of Republicans who in many ways are more likely to energize the Republican base. One thing is certain -- there are candidates that will play to the core issues in ways that McCain simply can't.
Here's a list of names. Some you know, some you don't. But each of them knows their name is in play. Among them --
Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Colin Powell (fmr Sec. of State)
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman)
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor)
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas)
Charlie Crist (Florida Governor)
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor)
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Governor)
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina)
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota)
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska)
MIchael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor)
Ok, go ahead knock them down. One by one. See if you can really remove ALL these names from a list of candidates that are more likely to give Obama a run for his money. They'll come on the scene late, with a press corps that is looking for a horse race and a new story. Obama's frontrunner status will be upset, and there will be a set of variables that need to be calculated -- and tested against a weary electorate.
Is this supposition? Sure, but one grounded with enough history and observation to take it beyond conjecture and into the realm of the possible.
So -- before the Democrats go and game out how to beat McCain, it may be worth thinking about what happens when he says he won't accept the nomination. For the Republicans, a wide open convention would be both good theater and good politics.
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Colin Powell, no way, kept too much intel from Bush. He's a traitor.
I've been reading huffingtonPost for a year or so and I would nominate this as the most off the wall comment yet.
Perhaps it was sarcasm and it went past my head?
Assuming it wasn't sarcasm, what evidence do you have, Raymodf, for the claim?
How can you keep intellegence from someone who wouldnt recognize it if he saw it???
Thank you!
not possible bush is an idiot and would not recognize intelligence worth considering if he fell over it
Expect Mitt Romney about July 15th.
Let the Republicans put Jeb Bush in instead of McCain at the RNC. Obama will obliterate him on Election Day.
Oh please, pretty please, let John Ellis Bush run. Got enough dirt on him down here in SoFla to bury him up to his neck, including him on tape "joking" about subverting an election. Run Jeb, run.
OK-OK...a couple of them are more like dammage control-cons.
Interesting, and very scary scenario. I think you can write off all the minorities, however. The R's know that the racist vote is one of their strongholds in this election.
I would look at whoever McStain picks as his V.P. Lots of public exposure, with relatively minimal vetting (after all, he is only the VP candidate, and the VP doesn't do anything, right dick? Or, to be more specific, Dick?). Keeps all the support that McLame had, because McLame picked him, but also has the advantage of immediately dropping all of McBush's baggage in a heartbeat.
Look at who is the (R) VP candidate, and be scared. That's how they plan to pull it off.
I have been thinking the same thing: Whereas, McCain is tanking in his own party. Whereas, the repubs are ruthless. Whereas, the repubs are nothing if not dismissive of rules, laws, and the peoples' overwhelming disapproval and opinions to sickening audacity. Whereas, they have shockingly used their own voting machines, Deibold, and gotten away with vote flipping manipulations with no consequences; etc.. (See Vern Buchanan fraudulent "selection" to the House " upon over 18,200 votes wiped out in his category to Ms. Jennings loss on the PAPERLESS voting machines pre-set in Sarasota, Florida __See: Gov. Jeb Bush, again). Therefore expect that V.P. selection to be their ace in the hole. That Neocon Mancurian Candidate V.P. will have little vetting, as you say. What a deal! The cons are known for this type of scamming: USING the more congenial McCain up to the point of cutting him loose AFTER the repubs steal the third general election since 2000.
One of the WORST things that could happen is that McCain, for one reason or another, doesn't live to see election day. And given this administration's past history, this would be another one of their 'October Surprizes'.
Please... do not let down your guard, do not take their weeping and moaning at face value. There will be plenty of time to relax in November.
But even that's not good enough- keep vigilant and vocal until January 20th. I'm buyin'!
Oh! he will live to see election day, but he won't be the candidate.
oddly enough I've thought of this.
I was listening to McCain, and then
hearing some new thing he said and all I could think of is "Does he WANT to lose?" which then led me to the thought that maybe at the convention they will have a vote and vote in a different candidate.
(then I thought I might need to take my tin foil hat out of storage.)
I'm glad to see someone else is thinking about this.
re: GOP never throwing a race.... I have two words.... BOB DOLE.
Republicans have always been the party of Drama Queens.
As was posted here on huffpo... Bush suggested another Bush term. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see Jeb take McCain's place.
Oh, for the love of God, NNNNNNNNNN
My biggest fear is that - regardless of whom they nominate - the GOP will steal the election for the THIRD TIME IN A ROW and once again, the MSM will ignore the story, look the other way, as they did in 2000 and 2004. When elections are stolen and the media doesn't report it and Washington doesn't investigate and people shrug their shoulders and say Oh well, what can *I* do?....you get 7 1/2 years of the worst administration in this country's history.
It wouldn't suprise me a bit to have them nominate Jeb Bush. They don't care if the very name "Bush" is repugnant to a majority of Americans - all they care about is winning...
Sadly, I'm afraid they are right.
What are you talking about, the msm is the ones that elect the president, your vote don't count.
Optimism and hope aside, why should anyone think it will it be different this time? All the evidence and experience says it will be the same or worse, e.g., the widespread metastasis of hackable voting machines. Do you think they built an all-encompassing legally-sealed fascistic structure only to let BO or anyone else (aside from who they're appointing, whether it's McCain or otherwise), attempt to dismantle it? They are busy smearing and hacking the machines while we're busy commenting. Were 2000 and 2004 were just bad dreams? Someone please tell me I'm wrong and WHY I'M WRONG.
Jeb is the only one I can think of that might stand a chance.
* Condi's out - Cheney just had his daughter attack her, and once the rumours about her sexuality are confirmed, she's history.
* Charlie Crist, same.
* Bobby Jindal - he's not white enough. The Repubs hold the racist vote, and the racists won't vote for Bobby.
* Colin Powell, same. Plus, he doesn't want it.
* Chuck Hagel doesn't want it because he's on the outs with the Bushies.
* Mittens - the Christian conservatives won't have it, they've already shown that.
* Mike Huckabee - too populist for the Business wing of the party.
* Marilyn Musgrave - not enough name recognition
* Bloomberg - I don't think he stands a chance against Obama for several reasons.
The others? It's a tossup.
Hagel is a dem in repub clothing.
Bloomberg left the Republicans fairly recently with grand gesture.
The only one who could actually win is Arnold Schwarzenegger. And he can't run.
How about a 5 word response to this blog:
Not in a million years.
As much as I'd like to see McCain join the other extinct dinosaurs, you'll have to pry the nomination from his cold dead hands.
I'm with you. He's far to arrogant to give up.
Not if his campaign debt is paid, by the RNC, and remember most of that money is your tax dollars. Not mine, since I don't have to file.
While interesting in theory, it won't happen because nobody else will be able to beat Obama. If they could have, they would have won the GOP nomination.
Even Colin Powell would struggle getting in this late. There is nobody who could satisfy all of the fractured elements of the GOP.
What have you've been smoking...
If it's up to HuffPosters to come up with an
alternative, it appears the Repos may just
as well stay with old man & jet ace McCain.
Can't anyone come up with someone original?
Such boring alternativ
I was able to knock some of them out - and quite easily. But not ALL of them !!
Romney is definately an ace in the hole - the GOP is short on money. Romney attracts money...it
That said..I want McSame to BE the GOP nominee; he's much easier to beat !!!
Yeah but Romney loses too.
No Fundies will vote for a Morman....
:-|
NAH...
I think Romney would be easier to beat than McCain. He's such a dork. Of course, McCain is a total dork too but Romney's a bigger one....
They are both big losers for the Repugs, but in totally different ways. Two cheers for them!
If Romney has a knack of "attracting money" why did he have to spend so much of his own to lose the Republican nomination in a landslide? lol
I don't want to let my guard down, but as far as I am concerned this presidency is Obama's. I believe 100% that he will be our next president.
I also believe that the GOP has several "reasons" why they are willing to let that happen. For one, Obama will build up the military because he inspires people to want to be involved and to be proud of our country; people that have never felt that way before. When people are feeling extremely involved and patriotic, they are willing to fight for the causes their leaders declare important for their country. And while Obama builds up the strength of our military, the belief in unity and more trust in government, the GOP can plan how they will use that to their own advantage, for their own agenda, in 2016. This certainly makes sense to me. The GOP sees now that they are not the ones able to inspire people to fight for their cause, when most of the country is against that "cause."
Hopefully, however, if all goes how it seems to be trending, they won't get that chance for a very long time! :-D
Obama '08! Change We Can Believe In!
He won't be getting money from the evangelicals or Christians which comprise of 30% of the republican voting population. I'll be voting against him and my entire ministry as well. Can't have someone dealing in the occult running our country. And the last time that happened to a country...
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