When McCain Drops Out

When the Republicans choose their candidate on September 4th, there is a very real chance that they could throw the election into an unexpected chaos as they pull a genuine September Surprise.

I think there is every reason to believe John McCain won't be the nominee. Ok, let me say that again. McCain will not be the Republican candidate in November.

Here's how it could happen:

At some point in mid August, John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept his party's nomination for president. The reason will be health-related, and that may turn out to be the truth. Anyone who's seen him on stage these days knows he looks like he's about to keel over. And anyone who's been on a presidential campaign knows the physical demands are grueling and can be a challenge for a young man.

But excuses or facts hardly matters. He won't be accepting his party's nomination.

The reasons are simple. He can't win. Now that Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee -- the polls all show that McCain's pro-war stance and Bush endorsement make him a lost cause in November. That combined with soft stand on litmus test conservative issues make him an unpopular candidate among the base. I know some Democrats that think the Republicans are planning to let McCain lose and 'sit this one out' so that they can hang the democrats with a bad economy and a war that is a morass. But that just isn't how they play. They play to win every hand -- think about 2000 with a popular Democratic president and good economy and a solid VP running for president. Why did they put up Bush? And why did they fight so hard? Because, you don't ever throw a game. And they're not going to throw this one.

McCain won't be the nominee.

By August, they'll have done something to try and pick away at Obama's popularity. They'll emphasize race, or whatever they can to get him to appear less than perfect. Then, they'll bring out of the woodwork a surprise candidate who can shift the story fast. With just two months before the election -- the new candidate will have little time to be 'vetted' but will be shiny and new, and will get a lot of media attention as Obama's newness will have become -- by then -- tarnished or at least no longer the surprise that it has been as he unseated Hillary.

So, who will be the Republican candidate that faces Obama in the fall?

I've spoken to a number of friends who -- when presented with this set of facts respond: "but they don't have anybody else." That's simply not the case.

Joe Trippi, campaign consultant and most notably Howard Dean's campaign manager, said of McCain dropping out: "While crazy, this may be the best shot they have."

There are a whole list of Republicans who in many ways are more likely to energize the Republican base. One thing is certain -- there are candidates that will play to the core issues in ways that McCain simply can't.

Here's a list of names. Some you know, some you don't. But each of them knows their name is in play. Among them --

Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Colin Powell (fmr Sec. of State)
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman)
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor)
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas)
Charlie Crist (Florida Governor)
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor)
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Governor)
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina)
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota)
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska)
MIchael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor)

Ok, go ahead knock them down. One by one. See if you can really remove ALL these names from a list of candidates that are more likely to give Obama a run for his money. They'll come on the scene late, with a press corps that is looking for a horse race and a new story. Obama's frontrunner status will be upset, and there will be a set of variables that need to be calculated -- and tested against a weary electorate.

Is this supposition? Sure, but one grounded with enough history and observation to take it beyond conjecture and into the realm of the possible.

So -- before the Democrats go and game out how to beat McCain, it may be worth thinking about what happens when he says he won't accept the nomination. For the Republicans, a wide open convention would be both good theater and good politics.

Follow Steve Rosenbaum on Twitter: www.twitter.com/magnify

Comments

[GoldenOne]

Pass the damn pipe! You can't keep all the good stuff to yourself.

[alt365]

I find this an implausible scenario, unless there really is a crisis health risk looming. Republicans would not do that to McCain, even if they think he won't win. It's bad form. They let Bob Dole run and he was not the most exciting of candidates. And McCain, in fact any person who throws their hat into the presidential ring, thinks too highly of themselves to concoct such a story and take one for the team like that.

[Merican]

Ha ha.

[Gamble]

The whole country is leaning left. Gas Prices are soaring, we are in two wars, Bush is madly unpopular, etc

And McCain is still basically tied in most National Polls.

The truth is that McCain is easily the best candidate for the Republicans. One with major crossover appeal which lets him actually compete in this election. Any other republican candidate would get swamped but because it's John McCain, well it's okay "Im voting for a Maverick anyway". This illusion that John McCains has many times been independent from his party will help him bigtime in November.

So, keep this pipedream to yourself.

[ColoradoDan]

Of Course he will be replaced. He is inept and a clown basically. He has already buried himself over and over with nonsense that no thinking GOP (I hear there might some of them left ... but that is just a rumor of course) could buy into. McBush is a shill ... a corporate puppet who bends along with Bush every time.

My opinion: McCain has been used to burn time is all. They can let America and World laugh at his antics and flip-flopping while avoiding months of critiquing the REAL nominee to be announced soon.

Pee Wee Herman could not be goofier than McCain ... c'mon folks, he is just a shill for show right now.

But then, perhaps the gutted GOP/NeoCons have thrown in the towel this and next year knowing that BushCo almost destroyed the USA and that most Citizens have caught on. Perhaps just fodder.

If that is the case, McCain makes great entertainment .

[mingusman]

This scenario is only slightly more plausible than the one that has Bush invading Iran, fomenting some severe jihadist backlash, and then turning around and declaring a state of emergency and refusing to leave office.

[Kordo]

Hmm, that sounds pretty damn plausible to me. Why not? Has BushCo shown any respect for the rule of law in the last eight years? They know if Obama gets into office, alot of GOP bagmen are going to prison. Maybe not Bush/Cheney themselves, but enough functionaries will snitch on them to get out of jail-time that it might hurt their retirement accounts...food for thought...

[BoydReed]

No prison time for the bagmen. Gotta love those presidential pardons.

[sytgrl]

I would have agreed with you before the Iraqis basically stated that they would not reach an SOFA agreement until after the election. This means no bases for the US in Iraq, and with the UN agreement making it illegal for us to be in Iraq after Dec 31, I see a larger push for warmongering from Bush against Iraq to justify forcing a SOFA agreement.

[indianadem]

You can definitely take Powell's name off the list. I can GUARANTEE he won't run against Obama...didn't you all hear all the lovely things he said about Obama in a recent interview. He's voting for Obama, I don't care what he might say in public otherwise.

[BoydReed]

If Powell didn't run in 2000 - which was pretty much set up for him, and the GOP *begged* him to run - he sure won't run now.

[indianadem]

I do think this could be a possible scenario, but McCain won't drop out voluntarily....he want's to be president too bad....he thinks that he should have been president for the last 8 years, not Bush. So I think the RNC would have to force him out, which I think is entirely possible. I don't know...that would be a risky strategy for them, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility.

[ObamaProud]

IMO, more likely than a McCain dropout would be a preemptive strike on Iran which will somehow make a case for Bush's supreme court to grant him another term and dissolve the election entirely. NOTHING would surprise me in this twisted axis of evil currently calling themselves the GOP.

[mmerose]

I've been saying this ever since McCain got the spot, and even my husband has been thinking I'm nuts.
I'll show him this! Thanks!

[noelbarrett]

McCain's dropping out is not that far fetched in my opinion - while watching the lime green NO speech I strongly felt that this guy just might not make it to election - on the other hand if he made it to the convention they would have to give it to him

[PennP]

Interesting idea that had occurred to me a while ago. McCain is so inept that he's bored the media with his snafus. Going to the mat with a loser candidate doesn't strike me as GOP style.

More likely outcome might be the selection of a natural successor, someone well thought of by folks in both parties, who'd be able to carry the blunderbuss. Lugar and Hagel come to mind in that respect.

Second-guessing Republicans hurts my brain.

[CitizenFace]

I just had a thought that may cast this article in a different light.

The writer primarily suggests that McCain would depart using health as a smokescreen, but what if, and I write this with all the gravity that such discussion merits, McCain were in fact to have some terrible medical calamity that would force him out of the race? I'm almost loathe to bring this up, as it is wholly speculative and, given his recent clean bill of health, unfounded, but since this blog entry is dealing entirely with hypotheticals, and I see this as a far more likely scenario than his willingly pulling out in the misguided belief that another Republican candidate may better serve the party's chances of winning, who, indeed WOULD the Republican nominee be?

My first notion would be for Huckabee as most likely, but I suspect he'd be viewed as too partisan and unable to win the crucial independent voter. That leads me to Jindal, but apparently he's a religious nut. After that I'd go so far as to put Hagel and Lugar ahead of Romney, but he'd be a close third of the three.

[PennP]

If your theory is right, McCain might want to pre-empt the party and step aside of his own volition. He surely remembers the fate of Wm. Casey.

[Manchurian]

Bobby Jindal was born in 1971; I don't think he meets the age requirement to be POTUS (does anyone know the specifics?).

[AOGutierrez]

Article 2, Section, Paragraph 5 of the Constitution:

"No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States."

Jindal is 37 therefore, assuming the proper citizenship status, eligible.

[bobzaguy]

According to our constitution, a person can only become president if he/she is 35 years old or greater.

Jindal became 35 in 2006, if math serves me properly.

[lornejl]

Great Story, thank you very very very much for covering this important topic HuffPo.

Did this get through ?

[CitizenFace]

Neat idea. Might make for an interesting political fiction.

But in reality? No WAY! After scraping and crawling his way here on a freaking BUS, who the HELL in the Republican party could convince McCain to just slink away?? Can you IMAGINE the tirade McInsane-i­n-the-Memb­rane would go off on whoever gave him THAT jewel of advice???


"Well, I did go through one of the most difficult primaries in Republican history; against many difficult contenders; with far too little funding or support; after being completely marginalized halfway through the process; and this IS my last chance at POTUS; but... I guess if it's for the good of a party that I'm often at odds with that probably won't win in November with or without me... maybe I'll take up gardening?"

HA! There's NO WAY! If it happens, I'll eat my hat. And your hat. I'll eat everyone's hat!

[ValueMeal]

Absolutely! McCain would rather die than lose even the most distant possiblity of becoming President. NO way he will step aside at the 11th hour.

Makes for a good read... has a psuedo West Wing flavour to it.