The dangers to Israel's existence, from a nuclear-armed Iran, are real. Equally real are the dangers of a pre-emptive military attack on Iran. Perhaps the greatest danger to Israel, however, is Prime Minister Netanyahu.
America is Israel's most important ally, providing financial (~$3 billion/year), military, and diplomatic support. In response to the Iranian nuclear threat, the U.S. has been the main sponsor and supporter of sanctions against Iran. Yet Netanyahu seems determined to reduce this vital relationship to rubble by the time he leaves office.
Israel is about the size of New Jersey with a population of 7.6 million people. It's only about 10 miles wide at its narrowest point. A surprise nuclear attack on Israel by Iran, combined with a ground attack from Gaza and the West Bank, could potentially cause a second holocaust. Iran's leaders have openly threatened Israel with genocide.
Further, Iran's possession of nuclear weapons could ignite a regional nuclear arms race with Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and/or the UAE. Nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East vastly increases the likelihood an unstable non-state actor (e.g., al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah) will acquire nuclear weapons. All these possibilities are bad for world peace, and bad for Israel. Netanyahu is demanding commitments to a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear weapons program in the near future, unless Iran gives up its nuclear ambitions.
The U.S. and many Israelis believe it's premature to discuss a pre-emptive strike on Iran as the attack could trigger some combination of the following: Hezbollah (Iran's ally) launching missiles on Israel from Lebanon; Hamas launching missiles from Gaza; Syria (another Iranian ally) deflecting attention from its civil war with a "patriotic" war against Israel -- potentially using chemical weapons, or providing them to Hamas or Hezbollah (Syria has one of the world's largest stockpiles of chemical weapons); Iraq becoming an Iranian satellite and declaring war on Israel; Jordan and Egypt revoking their peace treaties with Israel and joining the carnage.
Iran has threatened to respond to an attack by retaliating against American assets in the region, and using military force to cut world oil supplies (thereby creating a much larger regional conflict). The Europeans (who've made clear their lack of support for a pre-emptive strike) could impose economic sanctions on Israel. America's isolationist wings (from both political parties) might demand the U.S. distance itself from Israel.
Further, a pre-emptive attack on Iran could fail -- allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons on an accelerated basis, also setting the stage for a second holocaust.
The scenarios above are simplified worst cases, but my point remains: there are no easy solutions. The U.S. (currently) believes the risks from a pre-emptive strike outweigh the risks of waiting for sanctions to pressure Iran into ending its nuclear weapons program. The U.S. has made clear: It's committed to preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons and all options are still on the table, but it believes additional public threats against Iran are counter-productive, and will only make it more difficult for Iran to back down.
Many Israelis agree with the American risk assessment. For example, Shaul Mofaz (who leads the largest party in Israel's parliament, and is a former Defence Minister) recently commented that a pre-emptive attack on Iran would cause:
"... loss of life, grave damage to the home front and deep erosion of Israel's political situation -- such action is immoral and operationally illogical under the circumstances."
Instead of treading carefully in this complex situation, Netanyahu has: Stridently criticized the Obama administration, and demanded that the U.S. (and the world community) set public "redlines" (e.g., on "the size of Iran's stockpile of close-to-bomb-grade uranium") which, if crossed, trigger an automatic American mlitary response.
Netanyahu's demands are particularly odd, because his own Cabinet doesn't agree with him. Netanyahu's deputy prime minister for intelligence and atomic affairs has stated he doesn't want to set "redlines" or deadlines. Netanyahu's own Foreign Minister believes, based on Israeli government intelligence, that sanctions are having a substantial impact.
Verbal attacks on Israel's most important ally about Iran is "meshuggah" (crazy) -- when Netanyahu has failed to convince his own government, let alone Israel's opposition parties, about the wisdom of his approach.
Criticizing the Obama administration is popular with Netanyahu's political party (77 percent of his supporters want Romney elected, compared to 5 percent for Obama), but has a cost. President Obama likely refused to meet with Netanyahu recently because Bibi used prior meetings to criticize/embarrass Obama and generate positive press for Obama's opponents (instead of focusing on promoting Israel's national interests).
Netanyahu's speech at the UN had no influence on American policy, and didn't influence any other country at the UN. But it was good politics in Israel. All his talk of war is estimated to have increased Netanyahu's standing by several points in the upcoming opinion polls, as voters rally to the government.
Supporters of world peace can honestly debate the best way to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. But not open for debate is the importance to Israel of a close working relationship with the U.S. Bibi's clumsy attempts to bully an American president and influence American politics might improve Bibi's own re-election prospects, but they damage that vital relationship.
About the Author: Steven Strauss was founding Managing Director of the Center for Economic Transformation at the New York City Economic Development Corporation (NYCEDC). He is a 2012 Advanced Leadership Fellow at Harvard University. He has a Ph.D. in Management from Yale University and over 20 years' private sector work experience. Join over 4,000 other concerned citizens by following him on Twitter @Steven_Strauss, or on Facebook.
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You can complain about Bibi all you want, but until you criticize Obama in equality, then this is nothing but trolling with a Harvard stamp on top.
For that claim to be plausible you have to prove that Iran is an irrational actor. Why? You're basing your claim that Iran with all the anti-Israel rhetoric coming from its current President (term ends next Spring) that Iran is actually prepared to commit suicide. Why? There are two obvious reasons: Israel has a second strike capability; Iran is literally surrounded by US and European military bases that could easily pre-empt or respond to an Iranian attack. Moreover, there are economic reasons. Can you prove that Iran would want to isolate itself in perpetuity from the international community with an attack on Israel? Iran, amongst other things, has a wealth of hydrocarbons that needs an international market. My guess is that you cannot prove it because it isn't true. The sensible analysis is that Israel, international Zionist groups and individuals and the Neocons want regime change in Iran, to distract the US (and Quartet) from the 'Peace Process' and allow Israel to continue settlement expansion in the OPTs.
other way
around: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/world/middleeast/isr
aels-iran-policy-appears-to-shift-further-toward-more-sanctions
.html?hp So much for Ahmedinijad's and other like minded propagandists'
mythology about Bibi "controlling" American foreign policy.
lobelog.com/lets-all-for-a-moment-remember-bibis-wisdom-on-iraq-10-years-ago
Israel, US attack and/or invade/occupy another country at least every decade...
Israel was attacked by multiple countries at once three times, which was an Israeli victor without US support.
This might be a good time to apologize for your false statement.
The reality is that, unless Iran is saving its concessions for after the US Elections, things will get rough. The view of the Director Arms Control and Disarmament Program of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is worth noting:
" There are many reasons to oppose military action against Iran, not least of which is that air strikes probably will not set back Iran’s program for more than two to three years and may even spur Iran to produce nuclear weapons faster than would otherwise be the case, and now without IAEA inspectors on the ground to gauge progress. If Iran is already judged to be crossing the line to weapons production, however, the argument of counter-productivity fades away. Iranian policymakers should understand that failing to limit the enrichment program will eventually trigger war."
http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-experts-commentary/tehrans-nuclear-balancing-act/
That's not to say Israel's 'plan B', could be that if they did attack Iran soley, and Iran returned fire, that alone could be turned into propaganda for the influential lobbies to start twisting Obama's arm!
they can fire 50,000 missiles at Tel Aviv right now,and tel Aviv would be turned into a parking lot
Iran is trash talking in an attempt to get relief from the sanctions
Israel should be very quiet.
lobelog.com/lets-all-for-a-moment-remember-bibis-wisdom-on-iraq-10-years-ago
And here the doves say, "Oh, but that's why we shouldn't issue an ultimatum. Instead, let's rely on diplomacy."
The problem with that is someone who laughs in the face of an ultimatum is not going to change his ways through diplomacy.
History is full of examples of fearful people hoping against hope that they could reason with madmen intent on killing them. They couldn't, of course, which is why history is also full of the biographies of madmen.
What country is the only country that has actually used nuclear weapons in war?
But you are correct. The refusal to issue an ultimatum is that there is no intention of backing it up with military force. IF there were, then the US would be adding to its reputation of being an international bully, issuing ultimatums and invading countries and killing people for exercising their rights. Under the NPT Iran has every right to nuclear technology. Under the NPT it does not have a right to make nuclear weapons. Under the NPT the US and russia and China are supposed to be decommissioning their own nuclear weapons but thats not happening is it?
" allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons on an accelerated basis, also setting the stage for a second holocaust."
This, Sir, is truly disgusting. I have no words for such slanderous, ignorant, malicious lies.
"If we had fish, we could have fish & chips, if we had chips"
They are in deep violation of nuclear arms treaty, and are the subject of harsh international sanctions.. The whole world is telling them to stop and they won’t. They deny their own population human rights that all decent countries abide by and show complete disregard by continuing to produce weapons grade uranium hence putting their own people through tough sanctions. All the while the leaders and Mullahs enjoy enormous wealth.
Lets be clear, there is only one reason they wish to produce uranium and that is for military purposes. All they need to do is stop and this thing will clear up.
They are in deep violation of nuclear arms treaty, and are the subject of harsh international sanctions.BDS. The whole world is telling them to stop and they won’t. They deny their own population human rights that all decent countries abide by and show complete disregard by continuing to produce weapons grade uranium hence putting their own people through tough sanctions. All the while the leaders and Zionists enjoy enormous wealth. on US tax dollars
Lets be clear, there is only one reason they wish to produce uranium and that is for military purposes. All they need to do is stop telling lies and this thing will clear up.
Israel, unlike Iran, never signed onto the treaty.
"They deny their own population human rights that all decent countries abide by "
Check the annual Freedom House and Ecomomist Intelligence rankings of freedom and see where Israel is ranked vs. Iran.