McCain's Evangelical Surge Helped Obama With Mainline Protestants
With all the attention showered on evangelical Christians and Catholics, we've neglected the religious group partly driving Barack Obama's recent surge in the polls: mainline Protestants.
This bucket includes the historic American churches that once dominated the spiritual landscape but have been losing members in recent years: United Methodist Church, Lutherans, Presbyterian Church in the USA, American Episcopal Church, United Church of Christ. Their members represent 18% of the population.
This used to be a solidly Republican group. In 2004, they went for President George W. Bush 54%-46%. This summer, John McCain was leading Sen. Obama among these voters 43% to 40%, according to a study by John Green of the University of Akron.
But an ABCNews/Washington Post poll released Monday showed Sen. Obama now leading among Mainliners 53%-44%, indicating that the undecided voters are breaking heavily for the Democratic candidate.
Why? The superficial answer is, as with so many other questions, the economy. In Beliefnet's Twelve Tribes study, 68% of centrist Mainliners (what we called "White Bread Protestants") said the economy was the No. 1 issue compared with just 4% who said social issues.
But that only gets at part of the riddle.
For one thing, Mainliners are traditionally conservative on economics - and surveys indicate that if anything they've become more skeptical of big government since 2004. Slightly more than four in 10 "white bread Protestants" call themselves conservative compared with 16% who say they're liberal. In some ways, Sen. McCain is actually an ideal candidate to appeal to this group - a mainline Christian himself (raised Episcopalian), he talks about fiscal discipline and earmarks.
The Mainline shift to Sen. Obama may be partly an unintended consequence of Sen. McCain's efforts to energize evangelical Christians, including through the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Though fiscally conservative, mainline Protestants are socially liberal - so they would be unimpressed by the Republican Party adopting the most antiabortion platform ever. Mainliners may be irritated or scared by Gov. Palin's religious language and beliefs - including her attendance at a Pentecostal church espousing "End Times" theology (that we're approaching the end of the world and Christ's return).
In general, Mainliners have grown increasingly uncomfortable with the role the "religious right" has played in the Republican Party. According to a new survey by a progressive group called Faith in Public Life, Mainliners - by a margin of two to one -- believe public officials are too close to religious leaders. Evangelicals, by a two to one margin, think politicians should pay more attention to religion.
If you view the campaign as a chess game, Sen. McCain made a bold and successful gambit to shore up evangelicals by picking Gov. Palin - but thereby left several other pieces on the board vulnerable.
Sen. Obama has skillfully capitalized on this. The campaign's religious outreach arm has initiated 950 "American values" house parties, about 65% of which have been among mainline Protestants. His campaign recently sent out a massive faith mailing targeted at mainline Protestants and moderate evangelicals.
The electoral map makers have insured that these groups get special attention. A list of states with higher-than-average concentrations of Mainliners is also a list of the key electoral battlegrounds: Ohio, Indiana, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
There's the simple fact that Sen. Obama himself is a Midwestern mainline Protestant. Though thought of as a "black liberation" enclave, Sen. Obama's church in Chicago was part of the United Church of Christ, a mostly white mainline denomination - and Sen. Obama's faith rhetoric is more traditional Protestant than Black liberationist.
Sen. Obama's frequent discussion of his personal faith seemed targeted at evangelicals but may have given comfort instead to traditional Mainliners. "Obama planting seeds in the evangelical garden has borne fruit in the mainline garden," says Mara Vanderslice, founder of a progressive religious group Matthew25 and religious outreach director for John Kerry's 2004 campaign.
All in all, the economy is still the driving force in the mainline shift. But these other noneconomic factors help explain why the campaign has seen -- as of now -- more improvement with mainline Protestants than with other groups.
Reprinted from Steven Waldman's Political Perceptions column at WSJ.com
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I consider myself a fiscal conservative and a social liberal and a member of the Independant party.
Republicans have had less and less to offer to me over the years as the religious zealouts have become more and more fanatic and influential in the Republican party.
I'm really proud that Barack has managed to take back religion and patriotism from the Republican party.....
The Republican party has a lot of work to do to get back to the middle after Sarah Palin and George Bush.
It's not surprising that Obama would get the votes of the large group of Christian voters who are more concerned about peace and poverty than about ushering in an American theocracy.
I've never understood the idea that the GOP was more patriotic-while destroying the Constitution, and more Christian, while dismissing the teachings of Christ as irrelevant with every word they speak and policy they pronounce. No, this WASP ain't buyin'. In the immortal words of Sarah Palin "Thaenks, but no thaenks".
I knew there had to be reasonable people in the Republican party. I'm glad their voices are being heard. Religion aside, I'm sure there are many Republicans who think of themselves as fiscally conservative, yet socially liberal. It must be embarassing and frustrating to be tarred by the same brush as the hard line evangelical portion of the party who would hope to dominate it.
Who DO dominate it.
As a practicing Catholic, I get rather tired of the sentimentality about "life begins at conception". That and the Church's official stance on deeply personal matters such as sexuality are some of the problems that I have with the Church that I am often willing to overlook since I go to mass to partake of the Eucharist, not to subscribe to the Church's views on this or that bit of dogma. I do not view the Vatican as inherently wiser than myself to make decisions for me. Luckily, most Catholics who have what could be termed rightwing views on such matters as abortion at least are not arrogant and pushy on the subject as has been the case with Protestant evangelicals. Men such as Ted Haggart, the late Jerry Falwell, and the sanctimonious James Dobson have all had their day in the political sun. We have seen these past 28 years since the onset of the "Reagan Revolution" far too great of a collusion of relgion and politics that disturbs many of us who do not subscribe to the oversimplifications and narrowmindedness of these evangelists. The base of the GOP has indeed helped to solidfy their power, but the Bush administration is the fullest proof of where that unholy alliance between evangelicals and neoconservatives has led us. Now their power, stature, and credibility have almost vanished entirely. November 4th will be the final nail in the coffin for them.
"I go to mass to partake of the Eucharist"
As a former catholic, this statement is without much merit. Why go to mass at all? Do you know what it means to celebrate mass? You cannot divide the mass into sections and put aside what you don't like!
Gimme a break!
As a former catholic (your words), you should understand why metatron wants to partake of the Eucharist rather than dismissing the statement as without merit. Why is sarcasm so much more appealing to you than charity? I remain a pro-life Catholic (I don't support abortion rights, euthanasia, capital punishment, most wars or embryonic stem cell research). I work hard to keep informed on relevant issues. I try to discern the character of our presidential nominees in an unbiased and rational manner as it is impossible to know before the inauguration what problems the eventual winner will face......
Well, somewhere along the line, "Godly" has been associated with "Republica
nice post. The true social issues that you listed should be of more interest from the christian community. Jesus was a liberal and a radical.
Abortion is horrible and as a society we should do whatever it takes to make sure it is legal, and rare.
Whatever happened to "render unto Caesar what is Caesars...
Excellent post. Couldn't have said it better myself. Hypocrites all of them!!
Oh you betcha! The minute I heard Mike Huckabee pronouce Sarah Palin a crusader, I was gone not just from the ticket but the entire Republican party.
Steven Waldman s absolutely correct. As a mainline Protestant pastor, I am dismayed by the "religious" right whose proponents (Dobson, et. al) do not exemplify the Christian message.
I am a registered Independent, and will be voting for Obama, mainly because of his intelligence,
wisdom, and ability to inspire. Also, it will be a vote against John McCain's cynical choice of a running mate.
I believe you echo the feelings of most believers who do not wear their religion on their sleeve, but rather try to make good rational and positive choices that can bring the country to a higher level of discourse and problem solving.
Count me in that group. I was raised Presbyterian and my parents were staunch Republicans, but more of the Rockefelle
Unfortunately, those are the believers who don't get press.
I'm a lifelong Episcopalian and have always voted for a Democrat for President. At my church last weekend I noticed several Obama bumper stickers, and not a single one for McCain. An admittedly unscientific poll, but there you go.
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