In a recent public appearance, GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney made an unusual campaign promise: he assured a college student questioner that ifhe voted Republican in 2012, he'd have a job when he graduated. That promise struck many observers as extravagant, if not downright absurd. Given the depth of the current recession, no one's in a position to deliver an economic turnaround -- let alone major job growth -- on a dime. But Romney's rhetorical excess is a sure sign that Republicans are zeroing in on youth -- and more broadly, on "Millennial" voters (18-29 year olds) -- as a strategic wedge to try to defeat President Obama in 2012.
Millennials, of course, provided just such a strategic edge to the president in 2008, electing him by a better than 2-1 margin. They were the cornerstone of his pioneering "get-out-the-word" viral campaign that pushed him over the top against establishment candidate Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries and that bolstered the party's prodigious "get-out-the-vote" effort on election day. And Millennials did turn out in record numbers, with 80% of the 10 million first-time voters coming from this age group alone. If anyone embodied the Obama mantra of "hope and change" -- indeed, shouted it from the rooftops -- it was Millennials, especially young Blacks and Latinos excited about the prospect of electing the nation's first president "of color."
But, of course, that was before Obama began backing off his commitments on one issue after another, from immigration and cap-and-trade to the closing of the Guantanamo military base and the war in Afghanistan. Even worse, Millenials have started feeling the weight of the flagging economy, and spiraling debt, at disproportionate levels. Unemployment among 16-24-year-olds stands at 18.1%, nearly double the national average. And student loan debt , at a whopping $1 trillion, has surpassed credit card debt for the first time in history. If as the old saying goes, youth are "the future," for many Millennials their future's looking bleaker by the day.
Consider the polls. From a high of 84% in early 2009, Obama's favorability rating among voters under 30 declined to 55% in February. It now stands at just 46%, with more disapproving of Obama than approving for the first time since his election. Even more threatening, perhaps, is a sharp change-over in party identity. White millenials have gone from majority Democrat to majority Republican - a combined 18% shift, far surpassing the broader national trend. The magnitude of that shift was apparent in the November 2010 mid-terms, when Millennial support for Democratic candidates fell by 50%.
But can the GOP really capitalize on Obama's failures in 2012, in an election that hinges as much on personality as program? Some pundits are suggesting that a higher percentage of disaffected college-age youth may simply stay home on election day, magnifying the GOP's natural advantage with older voters. But youth turn-out has increased successively during the last three presidential cycles, and some pollsters are predicting that youth may comprise over a quarter of the electorate in 2012, up from 18% in 2008 and 2004. That means the key issue isn't so much turnout as how these young voters actually cast their ballots.
And if current polls are any indication, while Obama still leads the GOP competition, it's not by much, just 50%-41% over Mitt Romney in a survey conducted by Stanley Greenberg, a leading Democratic pollster. That's even less than the 10-point margin John Kerry enjoyed over George W. Bush when the Democrats lost badly in 2004. Conservative-leaning youth groups have begun mobilizing in record numbers and are exploiting the same social media that Obama's youth corps monopolized in 2008. Only now, their rallying cry -- jobs, jobs, jobs -- could well carry the day with Millennials, dwarfing Democratic appeals on war and peace issues or the environment, and dooming Obama's re-election.
Is there still time for Obama to recoup his lost standing? The White House clearly hopes so. Its latest jobs plan includes special incentives to employers to hire youth, on top of provisions in ObamaCare that allow children to remain on their parents' health plans until age 26. But these are stopgap measures at best, and many youth know it. A rising percentage who left home to attend college are going back to live with their parents, just to survive. And if that increases the likelihood that they vote like their parents -- over 30 voters tilted toward John McCain in 2008 - Obama may well be finished. Just ask Millennials: according to a Harvard poll released two weeks ago, by a 11-point margin, most expect their former icon to lose.
David Boaz: President Obama and the Youth Vote
Ed Koch: End of Year Reflections
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
We need to give the boot to both houses and send a clear message to get the government in order. If nothing has been getting done in Washington then the light should be shined on both houses and less on the president after all he is the end of the line a bill has to passed by both horses before the president can sine it
If the GOP's "brand" is so damn tarnished, why are these voters moving its way?
It doesn't means voters support the GOP in Congress, or the candidates per se, but it speaks to identification with party philosophies and programs.
This is the future.
The point being, that this is beyond one likable and popular president. It's actually far more fundamental, and it should be deeply worrying to the Democrats since they can't live off Obama's charisma forever.
Maybe they can find an Andrew Cuomo to pull these voters back across the aisle.
This isn't presidential "favorability" rating; this is an actual shift in political party identification.
http://www.people-press.org/2011/07/22/gop-makes-big-gains-among-white-voters/
Most people realize that Obama is slipping among White voters, overall, and if you're on the left, of course, you may think it's due to racism and ignorance, class and age prejudice.
Supposedly, only rich old farts at Country Clubs vote GOP?
Now, the truth is, and it's disturbing, is that Obama is slipping worst among these two groups of white voters:
(1) Millennials, 18-29 (the so-called "youth vote" that backed him better than 2-1 in 2008)
(2) Poorest voters, those with incomes below $30,000 annually.
Dems led GOP among Millennials by 7 points; now trail by 11 points - an 18 point shift
Dems led GOP among poorer voters by 15 points, now trail by 4 points - a 19 point shift
So, why are so many poor and young voters now identifying with the GOP?
Articles about threats to Obama's reelection can be very useful for highlighting areas in need of more White House attention - Hispanics, Catholic, and youth, all areas I have written about where Obama is faltering.
Or we can just write puff pieces, extolling the Messiah's Mandate from Heaven in the face of the Republicans' Satanic onslaught.
But I'd rather be on the White House paid propaganda staff to write that stuff.
We are probably collapsing together two or three very distinct groups within the Millennial category (those born between 1982 and 1993):
18-21 year-olds, including college students in school.
21-24 year olds, just got out, now struggling
24-29 year olds, already in the workforce, some jobless
It's rare t see data that breaks these groups out. Doubtful that the last group is really much different from the general voter at this point. If they attended college, for most, it's no longer their main frame of reference.
Maybe it's college students people would expect to be least energized in 2012.
It is not a R/D issue, but they will be looking for national leadership. If we think the wage disparity is bad now, just wait until college is totally out of reach for the 99% (like us).
The actual issue is:
How likely is it that Obama will win 18-29 year olds by the same 66-32 margin he won in 2008, and which was critical to his victory, according to most accounts?
If it's not likely, how much of a decline could truly hurt him, assuming either the same high level of turnout (approaching 20% of the total vote), or something much smaller, as some fear?
And if you don't think Obama's going to do anywhere near as well, in terms of turnout, or tilting his way 2-1, what leads you to conclude that he will still win?
Hispanics turned out in record numbers for the mid-terms in 2010, and everyone said, if they did, it would be good news for the Democrats. It largely wasn't actually because Hispanics tilted back towards the GOP compared to 2008. (38% compared to 31%).
Of course, we're not going to see a mass right-wing youth movement, but it's a numbers game.
Obama "ran up the score with Millennials" in 2008, and if he doesn't this time, combined with a closer margin with Hispanics, and a greater loss among blue-collar workers and a split among indies - IT'S OVER.
Obama DELIVERED very, very little.
The youth won't, and shouldn't, care about excuses. Obama has proven himself ineffectual in the current political landscape.
that way, they will no longer be disappointed.
The thing that really has Dems worried - panicked - is the WHITE millennials. That's the thing to really pay attention to. Yes, young Blacks and Latinos will still lean his way, but young whites?
It's not just "disaffection," it's that they are starting to change their voter ID to GOP. That's a much bigger sea-change.
I cited data in the blog - here's more
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/07/28/under_obama_millennials_move_into_the_gop_column_110740.html
Meanwhile, Ruy Texeira, an Obama-phile just wrote a piece for The New Republic about Obama's utter dependence on the youth vote to win in 2012.
It contains numerous errors of fact and interpretation --- but it's illustrative of the underlying fear
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/98937/why-obamas-re-election-campaign-will-depend-the-youth-vote
Reading between the lines, he's saying Democrats need a voter suppression strategy - for those who oppose Obama.
Pretty amazing - except that the desperation is becoming palpable.
Is the guy you're talking about?
Not sure I'd want HIM predicting MY landslide, but if you say so!!!
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1712305/pg1
But even with the GOP catching up it won't be enough. Obama just needs one speech that talks about how "everybody has to be a winner" and "corporations are bad" with a lie about the "govt forgiving student loans" and the entitlement generation will hear that loud and clear - and stampede to the polls.
Because this nation's loss is the Democratic party's gain.
The Pew poll showing Obama with a huge lead - though smaller than 2008 - has been cited ad finitum, but that poll was conducted in that's late July early August.
The Stanley Greenberg poll = Greenberg was Clinton's pollster - showing Obama leading Romney by just 9 points among Milllenials - that's truly SCARY.
If that holds up through 2012, Obama's TOAST.
Only if his opponent is Ron Paul.
What people don't seem to realize is that Paul is also the most conservative on the economy - no government practically, and total personal freedom, and no foreign intervention.
In the process, is he really making conservative economic ideas more appealing to youth than ever before? Or are these primarily conservative youth to begin with?
Not sure anyone has the complete answer to that. In Iowa, and elsewhere, he's getting cross--over votes from Democrats and independents, that's why he's running so competitively with Obama in head to head polls.
Though the media, as well as the GOP, is doing its best to ignore that.