Why North Korea's Antics Are Good For Obama

Obama has more foreign policy luck. The first was a dramatic hostage situation on the high seas that ended with a Rainbow Six-style sniping of three Somali pirates. Now comes the reliably pugnacious Kim Jong-Il, using his signature saber-rattling (though admittedly somewhat heightened rhetoric, even for his standards) to shift the international focus from Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Sri Lanka back onto the Hermit Kingdom. However, following its initial hullabaloo, the current standoff may be a foreign policy windfall for the Obama administration by uniting typically disparate regional players. The developing situation appears increasingly like an Axis and Allies scenario, but with an Axis of only one who may have finally overstepped.

As I wrote earlier this week: "Although many news sources are emphasizing North Korea's recent nuclear test as a "3:00 A.M." moment for President Obama, it is just as much the case for China as it grows into its nascent international role." And indeed, as the standoff continues, pressure on global players other than the US has increased even further, especially in Beijing and Moscow. This is because the US response is more or less preordained, leaving the ball in China and Russia's court. There is an established US protocol for responding to North Korean aggression that includes, but is not limited to: calling for stricter UN Security Council sanctions; freezing North Korean assets and blocking its access to foreign financial markets; and enlisting the cooperation of the problem state's closest allies. In the current situation, it is this final protocol that matters most.

The London G-20 Summit in April this year was a diplomatic chumfest that at times reached the level of farce. However it was also a momentous occasion to introduce Obama to a star-struck international community. Before the end of day one, the new administration had already met and hashed out optimistic agreements with both Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Dimitri Medvedev, marking a promising departure from strained relations in years past.

Obama and Hu's first meeting ended with an agreement to create a US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue to address China's disproportionately small pull in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and to plan for the possibility of joint financial bailouts. Likewise, Obama and Medvedev's meeting ended with pledges to pursue joint initiatives later this year meant to improve ties, and, more specifically, to reduce nuclear stockpiles (an issue with direct propinquity to the North Korea problem).

Both China and Russia have in the past been complacent towards North Korean aggression. Though Kim's missile launches and nuclear tests are surely a diplomatic annoyance, it is never enough for Beijing or Moscow to issue more than a verbal wrist-slap to their vestigial Soviet-era ally. But this time is different, and the advantage is all Obama's. Indeed, neither country actually wants a nuclear armed North Korea to join the geopolitical chess match. The global financial meltdown squeezing GDP growth worldwide, and both countries now following up on G-20 pledges for better ties, all bodes well for a concerted, harsh response that finally goes beyond just words. Indeed, the current crisis allows for unprecedented cooperation between global players that could lead to good faith dealings with other prickly issues, such as global security, the economy and climate change.

With the mandate that a unified front will provide, harsh sanctions specifically targeting Kim's military will finally be feasible, as will a full-court press on North Korean vessels under the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) with South Korea onboard after years of reticence. Most essential of all, however, is the possibility that China will finally close off trade and aid channels that have for years propped up the North's regime. Admittedly, such additional provocations could lead the DPRK to back up its shrill rhetoric with violence. But multiple experts, speaking to the Washington Post Wednesday, for their part, agreed that a large-scale clash is extremely unlikely.

All things considered, much good could come out of the current crisis. Sure, Obama didn't ask for any of this. But if the pieces continue to fall into place against the Hermit King, this week's mess could be next week's fortuitous moment.

Comments

[Froggie99]

The Washington Post put up a very comprehensive opinion article which gives six reasons why the Chinese cannot be relied on to put pressure on Kim to be more "reasonable" - and these reasons are quite complicated and have mainly to do with destabilizing the whole area: China, South Korea, and Japan. China would prefer to see Kim's regime maintained, as unpalatable as that sounds.
CNN's outstanding investigative reporter, Christiane Amanpour, did an excellent story (one hour long documentary) on North Korea, which amazingly allowed her to interview and film within North Korea, albeit with very strict guidelines.
One part of that documentary which really struck me was that the Boston Symphony Orchestra was allowed to give a concert in the country. When it played "Rhapsody in Blue", the North Koreans actually wept with joy, they had never heard it before. Sad. Very sad people.

[Soapfan]

Can Mr.Obama legally bomb N.K's nuke plants?

If so imo he has more than enough reason to do so.

[messy]

No one cares about the people of North Korea and no one will save them unless Kim attacks his neighbors.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-lurio/auschwitz-the-musical-or_b_208214.html

[FairTalk]

I like your article, and find you make interesting points. However, I doubt China will allow No Korean people to starve to death. Closing the border between No Korea and China would be like closing the border between Canada and the US. It hasn't worked. Koreans live on both sides of the border, and have for centuries. let me repeat that, for centuries.

The real problem is why the US refeses to sign a peace treaty with No Korea, and end the war? until we do that, I forsee more of the same.

[markg1956]

I don't think the US can sign a peace treaty with North Korea since we were part of a UN police
action. It would be up to the UN to enact a settlement.
Isn't a unite front on North Korea not just good for Obama but also for the World?

[FairTalk]

Yes. But we do not have a united front. And many people are being lied to as to what the issues are. Ask youself this...if No Korea didn't have nuks and rockets, and didn't let us know they had them, by "testing" them, would we even care if the No Korean people starved to death? Of course not. So, when folks say that No Korea is just trying to get our attention, please take out the "just."

Fact: No Korea is a barron mountain. Even if they were the most peaceful democracy, there is no way they could feed themselves. So, what are they to do. They are orphins of the cold war, born fo the USA and the Soviet Union, after Japan raped them. The situation in Korea was not caused by China, and if you know anything at all about the history of WWII and the Korean War, then you know that Mao did everything he could to avoid that war, he even tried to get No Korea not to invade the south. So what's this nonsence about calling China an "ally" of No Korea. Don't kid yourself.

Now that the Soviet Union is a cast off snake skin, Russia does not care about No Korea.

Neither China nor Russia care about Japan. Japan raped and plundered Korea and China. Do you think they care if No Korea scares Japan?

[eagledavey]

We are rapidly leaving the realm of 'antics'--as this author puts it--in the dust. Nuclear tests, missile tests, renunciation of the 50 plus year old truce, threatening to attack ships interdicting their arms shipment, and threatening war all in a few days are more than just antics.

[We-Are-The-Ones]

I disagree. It is all antics. More vociferous, but still antics. And alarming enough to wake up N. Korea's allies, China and Russia, and for them to join others quickly condemning this action. I don't think this participation from China and Russia is what No. Korea expected. I think it expected status quo.

[Bubba Gump]

I agree, this has clearly become more than just antics. KJI is threatening a catastrophic war, to include nukes. Unless things settle down, at some point, KJI will have to do something provocative to "save face" from boasting too much. Remember the U.S.S. Pueblo and all the South Koreans and Japanese who have been kidnapped in the past? And the two soldiers butchered in the DMZ? I'd be looking for NK to test the US in some limited fashion in the next several months, maybe even 2010 but I'd be betting sooner than later; best to test a new president rather than a settled-in president. The question then becomes what will the US, China, and Russia do together or allow peace and security to fall apart?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axe_Murder_Incident
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_border_incidents_involving_North_Korea

[tippy6]

Here's how things could spiral out of control:
1) NK conducts weapons tests (nuclear or conventional), generally in violation of U.N. resolutions
2) Security council members then agree to tightening its grip by imposing/increasing sanctions
3) NK gets angry, conducts more weapons tests, makes dires (but empty) threats, maybe even mobilizes its army
4) This forces the U.S. soldiers stationed in S. Korea + Koreans soldiers and navies to mobilize in response
5) Seeing the U.S. and S. Koreans mobilize infuriates NK even more...

And so on.... Hopefully cooler heads will prevail.

[noaxe397]

It is refreshing to see grown-ups at the table responsibly addressing these issues. All that axis-of-evil talk really didn't make much sense. I'm not sure how much any pressure from China and Russia will affect KJI. His people are starving to death literally and yet he has the fourth largest army in the world. And all his talk about an attack on SK, while it is possible for him to do would be a first wave and then nothing. It has been estimated NK could hit Seoul with as many as 400,000 rockets and bombs in a first wave attack, but NK is so poor there would be no second wave; no ammo, no fuel, no way to sustain a massive army.
And, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Kim always seem to launch one of these missle/bomb tests around an American holiday? I seem to remember him doing something like this last year during Fourth of July week. What's that all about?

[wonder6789]

Very well written and true. Thank you.

[Mugzi]

Has anyone noticed this Kim guy...I saw some pictures of N Korea and he's standing but it appeared like someone was holding him up from the back. He's always wearing these dark glasses. He almost appears catatonic.

[Z2221344]

Are you suggesting some sort of "Weekend at Bernies" hijinks?

[weeshee]

A few months back I heard a report about concerns regarding KJI's health, and the worry it was causing the military, as KJI has no solid "heir to the throne". I know it was subsequently reported that he was "fine", but I agree, the photos of him appear to show a less robust man that has been seen in the past.

[tippy6]

The DPRK continues to fascinate me, as the truest approximation of an Orwellian "1984"-style society currently in existence, what with its malleable interpretation of historical "facts", thick propaganda, and cult-like adoration of a singular god-like leader. All positive things, down to the least of petty achievements, are all attributed to the wise leadership of the "dear leader". Its as if Kim Jong Il is reading from the Big Brother playbook, taking it step by step. He now likely believes himself to be godlike, while most of the world just points and laughs.

Knowing this convinces me that just using more angry language and empty threats will have no effect, other than to encourage more "Look At ME" behavior in the future. The danger is whether KJI has some final wish before he dies of seeing his million-strong army put into action.

[ComeOnAmerica]

Very interesting points. I wonder if China and Moscow would be inclined to do more than the slap-on-the-wrist if we still had cowboy diplomacy.­....Not likely. Good foreign policy moves so far the the new administration.

[chlai88]

I think we're beginning to see dividends in the Obama international strategy after the G20. Previous American responses to NK have been mostly met with disdain from China and Russia but not this time. China and Russia have more a stake in NK than the west because of proximity. But because of self-interest, they have largely kept NK alive for fear of it turning pro-American. By blunting concerns of American hegemony, they have now openly stepped up to the plate to rein in the reclusive state. Within, NK itself, the current events already tell a story of instability. What China and Russia also fears is an arms race where SK and Japan also acquires nuclear weapons of which there are already some calls for it. It's a net win for America as it really does not have to do much to hasten the downfall of Kim's regime. China and Russia will isolate the regime even more if continues to behave erratically as they know its a liability to them now. NK will either have to go the path of China in integrating with the rest of the world or risk imploding and uniting with SK. There is now no other choice.

[S1m0n]

North Korea has been asking the US for a peace agreement and a non-aggression pact since Clinton, at least. And the US has been rsteadily efusing. How come its always NK being called 'pugnatious'? You're at WAR with them, for Pete's sake. Seeking a defensive weapon more powerful and cheaper than a million man army is the perfectly rational thing to do in that situation, because maintaining a military strong enough to deter an invasion is bankrupting their economy.

[We-Are-The-Ones]

If N.Korea wanted peace, it would stop the warmongering threats and live up to its agreements with the UN to not pursue nuclear weapons. It keeps threatening its neighbors and yet wants the US to sign a non-aggression pact when the US already is committed to defending Japan and S. Korea, which N. Korea threatens frequently. I think not.