Right now, Republicans are feeling pretty good about themselves.
President Obama's poll numbers have tumbled, health care reform has withered and raucous town hall protests have been even better summer teevee than blood-bathed shark attacks. The Politico is forecasting double-digit Democratic losses in the U.S. House next year and the GOP is primed to pick up several key governorships (perhaps one in Michigan).
The president has overplayed his liberal hand and now everything will return as it was, with Republicans rightly reclaiming the throne.
Yes, it seems our long, nine-month national nightmare of liberal/socialist/communist/Nazi rule is over. We are, as telepundits will gravely tell you, a center-right nation and the people have spoken. (Evidently, when the people actually spoke in November at the ballot box it was no more than a brain fart).
Like all overly simplistic analysis designed to confirm one's preprogrammed world view (because independent thought hurts), this is just wrong. The Democrats have big margins in both chambers of Congress and unless something cataclysmic happens, they'll maintain healthy majorities after the '10 election. Even if there is a GOP comeback, it will be years before the party has real power (and Democrats will have time to redeem themselves).
Now it's certainly true that Obama has taken a beating and will probably only emerge with a watered-down health plan at best. Given the likely slow economic recovery, punctuated by continued uncomfortably high unemployment, we can expect his job approval numbers to be in the 40s next year.
The president deserves criticism. He's hardly executed a flawless strategy, outlining eight vague principles, waffling on the public option and leaving the details up to lawmakers (similar to what Gov. Jennifer Granholm has done on the budget - and look how well that's turned out). But his administration is loath to repeat the Clintons' mistakes by pushing a heavy-handed plan and can claim victory if anything passes.
My conservative friends insist Obama is trying to do too much too soon on health care and is pushing an ultra-liberal agenda. On this front, I have to admit to being baffled. We've been talking about universal health care since longest-serving U.S. Rep. John Dingell's daddy was in Congress -- and 75 years or so seems like a healthy waiting period. No one's talking single-payer, just a government option. A little more competition is a good thing in my book (but what do I know; I'm a capitalist).
If you want further proof that the prez isn't Chairman Mao, just take a look at the savage attacks on him from the left. Always pessimistic, MoveOn.org activists are already willing to declare Obama's presidency a failure if he caves on the public option. Why, we may as well have George W. Bush back in office.
But that's nothing compared to the hysteria on the right. In political journalism, there is a tendency to equate insanity on both ends of the spectrum and sometimes it's apt.
This is not one of those times.
Something has snapped with right-wingers in this country over the last decade as they've been obsessed with eating their own in primaries -- and it seems to be reaching a fever pitch this summer with gun-totin' town hall meetings.
The sheer rage, misinformation and unvarnished racism on display at these events should cause anyone to shiver. Even the wackiest members of Congress, like former U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg's buddy Michele Bachmann, are getting heckled by the unbalanced souls looking to score a clip on YouTube.
There's a temptation for conservatives who genuinely believe government-run health care would be a disaster (besides the V.A. and Medicare) to embrace these vigilante-minded folks as patriotic mascots for the majority. Indeed, turn on Fox News at any hour and dudes with sadly misspelled signs will be hailed as heirs to Samuel Adams or that other intellectual heavyweight, Joe the Plumber.
But you have to draw the line. You don't see communists, anarchists or those who believe Bush was behind 9/11 getting a seat at the table with Obama. So why in the world are folks like House Minority Leader John Boehner coddling the screeching crazies on the right?
Sure, the GOP is out of power and desperate to get back in. But this need to pacify the purists -- forcing everyone to fall in line with groups like Right to Life and Club for Growth - began while Republicans ruled every branch of government. This helped hasten their fall and will make it increasingly difficult for them to claw their way back.
Demographics are not the GOP's friend, as the party has turned off Hispanics and young people at an alarming rate. Bashing new Justice Sotomayor satisfied the base, but helped solidify Republicans as cranky old codgers befuddled that a wise Latina could do more than clean houses.
Social issues don't pack the same punch when the economy is tanking. But the right just can't let go, making euthanasia and abortion the centerpieces of the health care debate.
In polling, the arguments resonating most with voters are that of fiscal conservatism and limited government. As a centrist country, Americans are suspicious of a health care expansion and a ballooning deficit. But that's not really registering in the high-decibel debate dominated by death panels and Adolf Hitler analogies.
Thanks to the town hall turmoil from bigots, birthers and assorted miscreants, Republicans can savor a sugar-high on health care - a decadent and ultimately short-lived victory.
But the president will come out looking calm and reasonable with some reform that widens the safety net. Like Social Security, the GOP won't be able roll it back.
Tell me again how total Republican victory is at hand?