Will Michigan's Depression Drag Obama Down?

Think your state has it bad? Michigan's unemployment rate will likely hit 15 percent this year, thanks to the implosion of the auto industry.

That's the assessment of Dana Johnson, chief economist for Comerica. If either Chrysler or General Motors goes into bankruptcy, the damage would be far worse. Try an "unmitigated disaster," in the words of Gary Olson, director of the nonpartisan Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency.

For March, Michigan's unemployment was 12.6 percent, more than 4 points above the national average. And all 83 of Michigan's counties posted gains in unemployment, including Great Depression-era levels like 28 percent in Mackinac County. Cities like Detroit and Highland Park have had jobless rates topping 20 percent for months.

So what does this have to do with Barack Obama? His favorables might reach 72 percent, but his handling of the domestic automakers could spell big trouble -- 53 percent disapprove. Michigan gave the president a 16-point margin of victory last fall, but we have an unpopular Democratic governor who's getting a lot of blame for the economic crisis. Jennifer Granholm is term-limited and may pop back up in Washington -- she was widely considered a finalist for cabinet positions -- but her likely successor, Lt. Gov. John Cherry, could feel the wrath of Michigan voters' anger next year.

If Republicans successfully make the argument that Obama killed the auto industry -- an increasingly popular meme in Michigan -- and Granholm strangled the rest of the economy by raising taxes, the Democrats could be in real trouble here next year. That's why there's already a broad field of Republican candidates for governor, with more likely to jump into the fray. And independent polling, albeit from a GOP firm, shows that Cherry loses to all of them.

If that continues to hold, I predict you'll start to see a spate of Republican resurgence trend stories on Fox News and right-wing blogs.

"Michigan is the canary in the coalmine," a toothy pundit will chirp. "Americans are sick and tired of socialist tax-and-spend policies and Michigan is suffering the most of any state. That's why you're seeing the Republican comeback start in the Wolverine State."

Obama has made vague promises to help Michigan with job retraining, unemployment benefits and health care. He appointed Ed Montgomery as recovery czar. The stimulus money is helping the state, which has at least a $1.4 billion budget deficit for next year, keep its lights on. But when times are this rough, the political landscape is volatile. How the president plays it in Michigan is indeed one of his first political tests. Unless he proves to Michiganders that he is committed to the state as it bleeds jobs due to government-mandated auto restructuring, 2010 could be a very good Republican year here. And spell plenty of trouble for Obama in the Midwest for 2012.

Comments

[Leota2]

Please, I live in Ohio---if the people in Michigan are are so uneducated(and I don't believe that they are) as to believe the Dems put them in this mess and will listen to idiot republicans they deserve what they get.
Especially because the GOP would kill anything associated with a union.

[jeanrenoir]

I think 49 states to 1 should do it for Obama. Who cares how the auto workers vote? Obama did the right thing for the country, with the vast majority of America's voters wanting the government to let GM and Chrysler fall into a black hole, since Americans are not just mad at GM execs for designing such lousy, ugly cars, but mad at the auto workers for BUILDING such lousy cars on the assembly line, when Americans just like these auto workers were doing such a better job building American Hondas and Toyotas. And let's not forget that the wonderful auto workers of Michigan taught the Republicans how to create a party to appeal to Joe Sixpack with racism and culture wars, when the fools gave the '68 Democratic Primary to that labor champion Gov. George C. Wallace of Alabama, thus birthing the Nixon-Agnew Southern Strategy, which Nixon and later Reagan and Lee Atwater so masterfully took national, thus retarding racial progress in America for FORTY YEARS. These white auto workers have a lot to answer for. The record of the Michigan auto workers is shameful in terms of the quality of their work AND their racist, bigoted politics.

[PaloAltoPunk]

Detroit NAACP press release, 4/15/09:
The Detroit Branch NAACP will pay special tribute to the U.S. Auto Industry at its 54th Annual Fight For Freedom Fund Dinner to be held Sunday, May 3, 2009 at 5:00 p.m. at Cobo Conference Center. In one of his first community events since being named President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Henderson will accept the honors on behalf of General Motors Corporation. "We will not waiver in our support of the U.S. Auto Industry," says Rev. Dr. Wendell Anthony, President, Detroit Branch NAACP. "We are going to uplift the auto companies and the many men and women who tirelessly serve the auto industry. It is important that we honor them as they continue to weather the storm during these tough economic times."

Michigan Messenger 12/9/08:
Rev. Jesse Jackson was joined by 40 minority auto suppliers in Detroit on Friday afternoon to rally support for the proposed auto-industry bailout plan. The group met for three hours to share ideas on how to stoke congressional action on the bailout most effectively.

NY Times 3/26/88:
But Mr. Jackson also has a substantial base in the union. A U.A.W. spokesman estimated that a fourth to a third of the union's membership in Michigan is black; beyond that, Mr. Jackson, who frequently joins picket lines and assails multinational corporations for neglecting American workers, has managed to build significant allegiances among white trade unionists.