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Bradleywilder

What Could Go Wrong?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Every morning for the last month, I have posted updates looking at poll trends. When poll methodology is standardized, polls should be good at helping...

Hidden McCain Vote?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

My NationalJournal.com column, which looks at specualtion over the Bradley Effect and whether the undecided vote will "break" to McCain from a differe...

Panagakis: Race a Wild Card for Pollsters

Guest Pollster | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Guest Pollster

Guest Pollster Nick Panagakis is president of Market Shares Corporation, a marketing and public opinion research firm headquartered in Arlington Heigh...

Bradley Effect on SNL

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

We probably shouldn't be surprised that SNL would offer its take on the polling controversy everyone else wants to talk about. Here, "Jesse Jackson" ...

Bradley-Wilder: New Data on Interviewer Race

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Just yesterday, I expressed a bit of frustration that much of the recent media focus on the "Bradley-Wilder Effect." Much of it, and much of the debat...

The Bradley-Wilder Media Tour

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

The last few days have certainly been a boon for anyone interested in the "Bradley Effect" (also known as, variously, the Wilder or the Bradley-Wilder...

Polling's Perfect Storm

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

My NationalJournal.com column this week reviews the three big sources of worry among pollsters and others about the accuracy of polling this fall: the...

Novak and "The Bradley Effect"

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Robert Novak's column last week led with this reference to the Pennsylvania exit poll results: When Pennsylvania exit polls came out late Tuesday a...

"Bradley" Still in the Race?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Mickey Kaus has been arguing over the last week that the greater emphasis on racial issues in the Clinton-Obama nomination contest may have caused a r...

46-45 Plus or Minus 3

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

In case you missed our update, the most recent Gallup Daily result on the Democratic race shows a near dead-heat, with Barack Obama ahead of Hillary C...

Where Was the Error Bigger: NH or SC?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

So in which state did pollsters have a tougher time, New Hampshire or South Carolina? The answer, based on an objective measure of survey error, may s...

South Carolina: More Theories and Exit Polls

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Some thoughts about tonight's South Carolina's primary, including some follow-up on yesterday's post on the variation in pre-election poll results: 1)...