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Election Analysis

Elizabeth Warren's Winning Ways

Mike Lux | Posted 11.24.2014 | Politics
Mike Lux

For those candidates who took the Elizabeth Warren message and stayed strongly with it throughout their campaign, they didn't fade and they won tough races, or races that could have been a lot tougher if they had faltered.

Unleashing the Democratic Tsunami in 2016

Mike Lux | Posted 11.06.2014 | Politics
Mike Lux

We can't go into the 2016 cycle thinking that Republican arrogance and demographics alone will save us. We have to have a strategy that simultaneously fires up our base and appeals to middle- and working-class swing voters.

Democrats Failed to Tell Their Story

Mike Lux | Posted 11.05.2014 | Politics
Mike Lux

What Democrats failed to get in 2014 is that every election is now a national election, and the party with the stronger narrative -- the party on offense, not defense -- will win most of the competitive races.

'We Never Saw It Coming': The Psychology of Missed Predictions

Neal Roese | Posted 01.25.2013 | Science
Neal Roese

Faced with an event that negative -- a defeat or a failure -- a person may claim it to be completely unpredictable, that no one could possibly have seen it coming -- a case when hindsight bias seems not only to be absent, but even reversed.

Final Electoral Math -- My 2012 Election Picks

Chris Weigant | Posted 01.23.2014 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Today, we're just going to throw caution to the wind, and go ahead and predict the outcome of tomorrow night's returns.

2012 Electoral Math -- One Week Out

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.29.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures. If the numbers are bad, it could give Romney the last-second momentum he needs. If the numbers are good, Obama could waltz to victory.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Debate Cliff

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.15.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Mitt Romney got an enormous bounce out of the first debate. This translated into him flipping two states to his column -- something he hasn't been able to do in quite a while.

2012 Electoral Math -- Debate Effects Remain to Be Seen

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

National polls have pulled back into a neck-and-neck contest. This is all fun for the pundits, who (pre-debate) were on the verge of declaring the race all but over (and, hence, boring), but we hasten to remind everyone that this is not how we elect presidents.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama Solidifies Bounce

Chris Weigant | Posted 11.26.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Of course, we are heading into debate season, so things could always change, but at the moment it is looking decidedly good for an Obama win. Here's how the election would break down if held today.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Bounce

Chris Weigant | Posted 11.17.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The big question in the next few weeks will be if Obama's impressive convention bounce will hold or fade away. This will set the stage for the first presidential debate, which could prove to be decisive.

2012 Electoral Math -- Pre-Convention Baseline

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.22.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Now is a good time to look at the state of the race, to establish a baseline to measure all this expected frenzied movement.

2012 Electoral Math -- Ups and Downs

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we took such a snapshot, roughly three weeks ago, both candidates have shown some firming up of their positions, but the good news for both candidates is mixed with some softening as well.

2012 Electoral Math -- Mixed Pictures

Chris Weigant | Posted 09.17.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we checked in, two states have moved toward Romney, two states have moved toward Obama, and three states have mixed news.

2012 Electoral Math

Chris Weigant | Posted 08.25.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

This column series will examine the race between Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama in the only way that is useful for actually predicting its outcome: a state-by-state look at how each candidate is doing. National polling is almost completely useless in election prognostication.

Sunshine State Results Not as Sunny as Romney Reps

Brian Ross | Posted 04.03.2012 | Politics
Brian Ross

Mitt Romney got the headline from Florida that he was seeking out of the New York Times: "Romney Wins Big Over Gingrich." That's one way of looking at...

The Election Where Everybody Was Right, but Nobody Was Listening

Sheri and Allan Rivlin | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Sheri and Allan Rivlin

The Democrats and Tea Partiers are both likely to misread this election. Just like 2008, this election was a rejection of one political ideology, not an embrace of the other.

The Re-Positioning Tango

Mike Lux | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mike Lux

Self-identified liberals are an important part of the Democratic base, but they sure aren't the only part, or even the biggest one. Most African-Americans, who voted 90% Democratic, do not describe themselves as liberals. Neither do most Hispanics.

Nationalizing the Election in a Bad Year

Mike Lux | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mike Lux

Democrats really need to spend some serious time rethinking how they operate in the down cycles, and how they can promote and defend their brand every single election.

They Heard You Loud and Clear (Moreorless)

Rick Horowitz | Posted 05.25.2011 | Comedy
Rick Horowitz

What the people said on Tuesday night completely squares with what I've been saying all along: "It's time to get rid of the designated-hitter rule."

The Secret Superdelegate War Revealed

Erik Ose | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Erik Ose

It was one year ago today that Hillary Clinton announced plans to suspend her campaign for the Democratic nomination, and urged her supporters to unite behind Barack Obama.

Post-Election Punditry: It's Perfectly Obvious

Rick Horowitz | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Rick Horowitz

Click. " -- and we're back. Time now to ask our Pack o' Pundits for the big takeaways from Tuesday's election results. What did you guys see in all...

Professor Obama

Marcia DeSanctis | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Marcia DeSanctis

Rather than preach, build or spread democracy, we proved that our system works. By winning, Obama did more to teach the Iraqis about democracy than four years of nation building has done.

How the Independent Movement Went Left by Going Right

Jacqueline Salit | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Jacqueline Salit

Gone are the days when independent voting was the province of the "conservative white male." It's estimated that more than 20% of the independents who voted for Obama are people of color.

President Obama: Israel Is Ready for You

Yoav Sivan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Yoav Sivan

After eight years of failed American policy in the Middle East, President Obama has the chance to reassert constructive American leadership in one of the most complex geopolitical regions of the world.

Forces in Obama Landslide

Ricardo Rossello | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Ricardo Rossello

Ever since Obama's historic election as the first African-American President, the pundits have been trying to demystify the voter attitudes and behavior that led to this unprecedented outcome.