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Election Polls

Mark Blumenthal

How The 'Orman Factor' Muddles The Senate Forecast, And How We've Dealt With That

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.06.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The recent upheaval in the Kansas Senate race has thrown a small wrench into political observers' efforts to forecast which party will t...

Mark Blumenthal

HuffPost's New Senate Forecast Predicts A Nail-Biter

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 09.02.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The race for control of the U.S. Senate remains very much in doubt, coming down to a coin flip based on current voter preferences as mea...

Mark Blumenthal

HuffPost Pollster Refines Senate Poll Tracking Model Before 2014 Elections

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.29.2014 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- With just over nine weeks remaining before Election Day 2014, the contest for control of the U.S. Senate likely hinges on the outcome of...

Natalie Jackson

Why Can't Pre-Election Polls Just Get It Right?

HuffingtonPost.com | Natalie Jackson | Posted 07.02.2014 | Politics

As we move through primary season this summer, we've seen some shocking and unexpected outcomes. Why didn't we know that House Majority Leader Eric Ca...

Sarah Palin Misreads Polling Data

The Washington Post | Glenn Kessler | Posted 07.01.2013 | Politics

Given how many variables can affect a national election, it is sometimes foolhardy to suggest one group or another swung the election. ...

Tea Party Reaches Record Low In Poll

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 01.07.2013 | Politics

The Tea Party is more unpopular than ever before, according to a Rasmussen poll released Monday, with just three in 10 voters holding favorable views ...

Don't It Make Mitt's Red States Blue!

Rick Horowitz | Posted 01.19.2013 | Politics
Rick Horowitz

Suddenly, reality. ...

The Most Astounding Thing About This Election

Sandy Goodman | Posted 01.13.2013 | Politics
Sandy Goodman

Election 2012 is only the latest example of human beings' incredible capacity to fool themselves when they desperately want to. And another reminder that today's GOP live on a different planet from the rest of us, with dangerously little regard for facts.

Notes for a Manifesto

Robert Kuttner | Posted 01.23.2014 | Politics
Robert Kuttner

The enormity of last week's super-storm is just beginning to sink into political consciousness. Hurricane Sandy should transform what Americans expect from their government, and give the party of government activism new force. As soon as the election is behind us, the country faces a major struggle over what the super-storm portends and requires. But that struggle will be as much within the Democratic Party as between Democrats and the right, because of the deadweight of austerity politics. If the fix is in for a budget deal that precludes government's ability to spend serious money on climate remediation, flood protection, and a shift to a non-carbon economy, the United States of America is just plain screwed. Few presidents get a do over. Let's see whether Obama grasps the challenge and the possibilities.

In a Democracy, We Deserve the Leaders We Elect

Steven Strauss | Posted 01.23.2014 | Politics
Steven Strauss

The presidency is, in Teddy Roosevelt's famous words, a bully pulpit. President Obama is in a unique position to use that pulpit to help the bottom 30 percent.

Obama Has 'Modest Lead' Over Romney: Final Pew Poll

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 11.07.2012 | Politics

Barack Obama heads into Election Day having regained a "modest" 3-point lead over Mitt Romney, according to the final election poll by the Pew Researc...

Obama Ticks Up: Popular Vote, Swing States and Electoral College Forecast

Simon Jackman | Posted 01.03.2013 | Politics
Simon Jackman

Polls released in the second half of the week generally suggested a slight uptick in Obama support, in the national popular vote, battleground states and the Electoral College forecast.

In Praise of Newspaper Endorsements

John T. Woolley | Posted 01.02.2013 | Politics
John T. Woolley

The "smart" view of newspaper endorsements is that they are an ineffectual relic of a bygone era. But we should welcome and promote editorial endorsements.

Mark Blumenthal

New Polls Show Obama's Ohio Edge Holding

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 11.01.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- With less than a week remaining before results are counted, the presidential race remains remarkably close, with President Barack Obama ...

Obama and the Economy

Robert Kuttner | Posted 12.28.2012 | Politics
Robert Kuttner

Thanks to his exceptional luck in drawing Mitt Romney as his opponent, Barack Obama will probably win a narrow reelection despite the dismal recovery. But on Wednesday morning, a struggle begins within the Democratic Party to save him (and us) from himself -- to keep him from agreeing to a budget deal that will only slow growth, needlessly sacrifice Social Security and Medicare, and make the next four years much like the last four years. What a waste, what a pity. Democrats should be resisting the economic lunacy and political sway of an extremist Republican Party. Instead, they will be working to keep their own president from capitulating to fiscal folly.

An Eye for an Eye, Unless You're Rich

Rep. Alan Grayson | Posted 12.28.2012 | Politics
Rep. Alan Grayson

As we lurch uncontrollably toward Election Day, choosing our next set of lawmakers, I've been looking for a way to cast some light on what is at stake. I think that I've found it in the oldest legal code -- the Code of Hammurabi, from 1772 B.C.

Understanding How Polls Affect Voters

David Rothschild | Posted 12.26.2012 | Politics
David Rothschild

While numerous studies have documented the existence of the bandwagon effect in the political domain, very few have attempted to understand the underlying mechanisms of why people conform to prevailing popular opinion.

Why the Auto Bailout Could Win Obama the Election

Abby Huntsman | Posted 12.21.2012 | Politics
Abby Huntsman

Perhaps nothing highlights the differences in voters' perceptions of each of the candidates better than their positions on the auto bailout.

Ratings: Fox News, the Old Folks Network

Reese Schonfeld | Posted 12.10.2012 | Media
Reese Schonfeld

Based on last week's total numbers: Romney wins, but if you look at demographic numbers, Obama's still in front. So, I guess that I, like Gallup and Pew, think it's too early to put anybody clearly ahead.

Obama Strong But Wilting With Arab-Americans

Steve Clemons | Posted 11.30.2012 | Politics
Steve Clemons

President Obama maintains a commanding lead over Governor Mitt Romney in the election but that Obama's edge has dropped by 15 percent since the 2008 election.

My Advice to the President on How to Win Re-Election

Ilene Angel | Posted 11.26.2012 | Politics
Ilene Angel

The truth is people's eyes glaze over with discussions of debt ceilings, interest rates, and tax loopholes. We understand things like the image of a dog being tied to the roof of a car. And we flock in droves, clamor even, to watch, vote, and feel a part of singing competitions.

Election Monitor: 42 Days to Go and It Is Obama's Race to Lose

Steve Lombardo | Posted 11.25.2012 | Politics
Steve Lombardo

Obama is ahead in every single battleground state -- whether by a hair or outside the margin of error. This isn't to suggest that every state will go his way, but this does say something about the state of the race.

Is the Problem With Mitt Romney Really Mitt Romney?

Dan Bimrose | Posted 11.17.2012 | Politics
Dan Bimrose

Maybe it takes more than telling people that God wants you to vote for Mitt Romney especially when the vast majority of your platform is the antithesis of Christian values.

Mitt Romney's Locked Box

Mike Lux | Posted 11.14.2012 | Politics
Mike Lux

There will come a moment in early October all those sleazy big money boys are going to have to decide whether to keep gambling on propping Mitt up. If they decide he can't win, we will see a sudden shift of superpac money into trying to save the Republican House.

Is This Race Over? Ask a Pollster

Jason Stanford | Posted 11.11.2012 | Politics
Jason Stanford

Democratic pollsters working in top races across the country say they don't expect Obama to run up the score like he did in 2008, but Romney's window is closing quickly. Most I talked to pointed to the upcoming debates as Romney's last chance.