As we enter the final week of the campaign, an obvious question to ask is how to convert the state-by-state probabilities of an Obama or Romney lead in the polls to probabilities that Obama or Romney will win the state and the election itself.
we wanted to investigate these political divides in the context of crowdfunding. Specifically, what similarities and differences are there in campaign and contribution behavior across red, blue, and swing states?
American mirror realities are not just manifested in the presidential candidates or the cable networks -- rather, they exist in real time on those red and blue electoral college maps and in all the endless daily tracking polls that have been showing the election as a dead heat for weeks now.
The Electoral College system is pretty weird. No other country has anything like it (and bear in mind, every country with a written constitution has had the benefit of the U.S. precedent when they designed their own system).
One could argue that the existence of different political parties makes little difference. This is because regardless of the initial political stance of the winning candidate or party, in most cases they will identify the same electoral issues and often adopt similar measures in response.
Elections in a democracy are sacred. Changing the rules created by our founders in order to benefit one political party is profoundly wrong. It desecrates our history and is a repugnant attack on the very core of our nationhood.
It's painful to watch these fools -- they don't know how a five-point popular vote victory almost always translates when it comes to the only metric that matters -- the Electoral College. (Hint: landslide).
Political scientists have a difficult time showing campaigns actually affect votes. In a new paper, I found that had it not been for Obama's field offices, McCain would have won Florida, Indiana and North Carolina.
Barack Obama is under no obligation to govern like a centrist or temper his policy goals to accommodate a point-of-view that the American people have decisively rejected. Obama won. Elections have consequences.