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Electoral Math

Final Electoral Math -- My 2012 Election Picks

Chris Weigant | Posted 01.23.2014 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Today, we're just going to throw caution to the wind, and go ahead and predict the outcome of tomorrow night's returns.

2012 Electoral Math -- One Week Out

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.29.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures. If the numbers are bad, it could give Romney the last-second momentum he needs. If the numbers are good, Obama could waltz to victory.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Debate Cliff

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.15.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Mitt Romney got an enormous bounce out of the first debate. This translated into him flipping two states to his column -- something he hasn't been able to do in quite a while.

2012 Electoral Math -- Debate Effects Remain to Be Seen

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

National polls have pulled back into a neck-and-neck contest. This is all fun for the pundits, who (pre-debate) were on the verge of declaring the race all but over (and, hence, boring), but we hasten to remind everyone that this is not how we elect presidents.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama Solidifies Bounce

Chris Weigant | Posted 11.26.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Of course, we are heading into debate season, so things could always change, but at the moment it is looking decidedly good for an Obama win. Here's how the election would break down if held today.

2012 Electoral Math -- Pre-Convention Baseline

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.22.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Now is a good time to look at the state of the race, to establish a baseline to measure all this expected frenzied movement.

2012 Electoral Math -- Ups and Downs

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we took such a snapshot, roughly three weeks ago, both candidates have shown some firming up of their positions, but the good news for both candidates is mixed with some softening as well.

2012 Electoral Math -- Mixed Pictures

Chris Weigant | Posted 09.17.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we checked in, two states have moved toward Romney, two states have moved toward Obama, and three states have mixed news.

2012 Electoral Math

Chris Weigant | Posted 08.25.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

This column series will examine the race between Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama in the only way that is useful for actually predicting its outcome: a state-by-state look at how each candidate is doing. National polling is almost completely useless in election prognostication.

A Little Electoral Math

Howard Schweber | Posted 08.06.2012 | Politics
Howard Schweber

Scott Walker has survived the recall attempt in Wisconsin. That is not cheering news for the Obama campaign, and neither are the depressing economic numbers, the chaos in Europe, or the amazingly tone-deaf Obama campaign ad that came out last week.

Ridiculously Early Look at Electoral Math

Chris Weigant | Posted 07.14.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since, as any fifth-grader will tell you, we don't have a national vote for president, tracking the race by means of national polling is almost completely irrelevant.

A Roadmap for the White House in 2012: Obama's Electoral Chess

David Paleologos | Posted 08.15.2011 | Politics
David Paleologos

What could Obama do to shore up his strength in these states in lieu of an improved economy? It's not out of the question for him to consider a new candidate for Vice President.

Final Electoral Math -- My Election Picks

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

About the Cartoonist  |  Reprint Policy Because it's Election Day, I'm not going to give a detailed analysis of the past week's polls, as I...

Electoral Math -- Obama Has Closed The Deal

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Welcome to the penultimate Electoral Math column. OK, I admit, I just like correctly using the word "penultimate." Plus, it's fun to say! Try it! If...

Electoral Math -- Obama Holds His Lead

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

More and more, it is looking like Virginia will be the state that decides Election Night in Obama's favor. Sure, it could be Florida or Ohio, but my guess is that the vote-counting is going to take a while in both of them,

Electoral Math, From Knucklebiter To Landslide

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

I am ready to take a look at the map and do some electoral math. Now, we're still pretty far out from Election Day, but we've got to start somewhere.