National polls have pulled back into a neck-and-neck contest. This is all fun for the pundits, who (pre-debate) were on the verge of declaring the race all but over (and, hence, boring), but we hasten to remind everyone that this is not how we elect presidents.
As the summer turned towards Labor Day, Obama gained ground every day that Romney did not. Time is kind to incumbents and leading candidates. The burden is now completely on Romney and/or Ryan to move the needle in their four debates
The big question in the next few weeks will be if Obama's impressive convention bounce will hold or fade away. This will set the stage for the first presidential debate, which could prove to be decisive.
If you have limited time to devote to following the presidential election this fall, I suggest you follow the data on just three states: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Mitt Romney's only likely path to victory over Barack Obama is to win those three states.
Since the last time we took such a snapshot, roughly three weeks ago, both candidates have shown some firming up of their positions, but the good news for both candidates is mixed with some softening as well.
America today is politically divided among all age segments. However, older voters have some problems of unique concern, informed by generation and current life circumstances, thus inviting attention when campaigns target advertising.
Believe it or not, 2012 is shaping up to be all about the Beaver State. With innocuous races for the Oregon legislature and an under the radar non-partisan race for statewide office, Oregon is the sleeper state up for grabs in 2012.
This column series will examine the race between Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama in the only way that is useful for actually predicting its outcome: a state-by-state look at how each candidate is doing. National polling is almost completely useless in election prognostication.
Here's the obvious: if Barack Obama wins every state in 2012 where he won in 2008, he will have 358 electoral votes and he will be reelected. The GOP in 2012 must recapture states that voted for Obama 2008 with at least 90 electoral votes to put a Republican in the White House.
When the voting rights of our most vulnerable citizens are threatened, everyone's rights are threatened. Democracy is not a fait accompli, it requires attention and constant care or else it might be lost.
Barack Obama is under no obligation to govern like a centrist or temper his policy goals to accommodate a point-of-view that the American people have decisively rejected. Obama won. Elections have consequences.