The days are long gone when what is said or what happens in Havana can disrupt world peace. Now we are marking the 50th anniversary of those events; studies are conducted of the declassified documents, the surviving players are interviewed and come to new conclusions.
Fifty-four percent of Venezuelans have ratified Hugo Chavez as leader of their country, and Raul's regime has some breathing room. But the great polarization in Simon Bolivar's fatherland will make it more difficult to publicly sustain the maintenance of Cuba.
If the Venezuelan results will decide whether we are granted billions in subsidies, and our relationship with our powerful neighbor to the north is in play in those elections, the Cuban elections smell strongly of a play whose script is already written.
People are tired of the worn out sign in front of their house with the figure with the threatening machete. People are tired of paying a membership fee to an organization that when you need it takes the side of the boss, the State, the Party.
Styled after the Soviet Komsomol, this organization provided cadres to the Party and even to the Council of State and Minsters. The UJC was a direct springboard to power, a pool of reliable and ideologically correct people.
So far in 2012, Raul Castro has given very few signs of industriousness in office. If we count the hours he has appeared in public, the speeches he's made, and the trips he's taken... we have to conclude that his productivity is extremely low.