While an expert may know more than anyone else in the room, he is unlikely to know more than the room as a whole, to be wiser or cleverer than the crowd.

Nate Silver is a shrewd customer. In a way, this election is on him and his ilk. The geeks have taken over baseball and football and every inch of our country's computer landscape. Why not politics?

The conventional wisdom is that the betting markets are pointing to the re-election of the president while the polls apparently have Mitt Romney as the narrow favorite. So what's the evidence?

For better or worse, FiveThirtyEight's prominence makes these ratings central to our conversation about how to interpret and aggregate polls, and I ha...

My column for this week follows up on last week's topic from a different angle: Nate Silver's intriguing finding that as a group, pollsters that are m...

I have been posting quite a bit lately on the subject of the transparency of Nate Silver's recently updated pollster ratings, so it was heartening to ...

Patrick Murray is director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute The motto of Nate Silver's website, www.fiverthirtyeight.com, is "Politics Do...

Harry Enten is a student at Dartmouth College The past two years have shown us that predicting voter support for same-sex marriage ballot measures is...

To hear the defeatism and paranoia on some liberal blogs this afternoon, the "timeout" that Harry Reid and the Senate called on health care today -- t...

Chris Bowers posted a two-part series this week that compares the final estimate accuracy of his simple poll averaging ("simple mean of all non-campai...

On his website, Republican strategist Karl Rove writes: The final Rove & Co. electoral map of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Oba...

You're the ones who can't get this election out of your heads. You're the ones who, in this final push to November 4, have the TV and the radio on nonstop.