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Fivethirtyeight

8 Reasons Why the Only Person You Can Truly Rely On Is You

Danny Rubin | Posted 09.18.2014 | College
Danny Rubin

Success depends on us and what's on the inside. Same goes for your career. If you wait on other people to bring you good fortune... you'll be waiting a while.

Roger Pielke, Jr. leaves FiveThirtyEight, and What It Means for Changing the Media on Global Warming

Daniel Kessler | Posted 08.04.2014 | Green
Daniel Kessler

Our efforts aren't about shutting down debate. Quite the opposite. We're asking for a more robust debate that begins with an accurate accounting of the facts and greater accountability when things go wrong.

It's Time For World Cup Predictions!

FiveThirtyEight | Posted 06.09.2014 | Sports

FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup forecasting model uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) — a system that combines game- and player-based ratings to es...

Nate Silver Admits That Pretty Much Everyone Didn't Like Climate Change Piece

Posted 03.28.2014 | Green

Statistician Nate Silver acknowledged to Jon Stewart Thursday night that a climate change piece on his new site FiveThirtyEight was facing some seriou...

Statistics and Climate Science: Roger Pielke Missed the Mark

John P. Abraham, Ph.D. | Posted 05.27.2014 | Green
John P. Abraham, Ph.D.

In his inaugural post on Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website, Roger Pielke Jr. put forth a number of arguments suggesting that many changes to extreme weather are not occurring as our climate changes.

Nate Silver Launches Bitter Attack On Paul Krugman

The Huffington Post | Jack Mirkinson | Posted 03.27.2014 | Media

Along with the Jets and the Sharks, and the Hatfields and McCoys, and the Giants and Dodgers, we can now add Nate Silver and Paul Krugman to the list ...

The New FiveThirtyEight Is Here!

The Huffington Post | Catherine Taibi | Posted 03.17.2014 | Media

The new FiveThirtyEight website is here. Nate Silver introduced his site with its first article Monday morning in a much anticipated relaunch equip...

Jason Linkins

Nate Silver Hates All The Right Things About The Political Media

HuffingtonPost.com | Jason Linkins | Posted 03.06.2014 | Politics

In the upcoming issue of Time magazine, Jack Dickey will offer a feature on Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight enterprise will soon become a semi-inde...

Jason Linkins

Nate Silver Was Apparently Really 'Disruptive' In The Way He Got Lots Of People To Visit The New York Times' Website

HuffingtonPost.com | Jason Linkins | Posted 07.22.2013 | Politics

New York Times Public Editor Margaret Sullivan weighs in on this weekend's big media news -- the departure of polling guru Nate Silver from the Times ...

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Will Be Separate Site On ESPN

Posted 07.22.2013 | Media

It's official: Nate Silver confirmed on Monday that he's leaving the New York Times for ESPN. Silver announced the move on Twitter, confirming the...

Health Care And Entitlement Spending Eating Up The Federal Budget

Jeffrey Young | Posted 03.19.2013 | Business
Jeffrey Young

Government spending has risen a lot over the decades no matter who you measure it. A big share of the increase is due to -- you guessed it -- escalati...

Election 2012: The Wisdom of the Crowd

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 01.26.2013 | Politics
Leighton Vaughan Williams

While an expert may know more than anyone else in the room, he is unlikely to know more than the room as a whole, to be wiser or cleverer than the crowd.

Prediction Markets: The Other Big Winners on Election Night

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 01.08.2013 | Business
Leighton Vaughan Williams

Mr. Obama was a big winner on election night. But there were others. Statistical modelling was one such winner, and the other big winners were the prediction markets, which had it right all along.

Countdown Election

James Campion | Posted 01.06.2013 | Politics
James Campion

Nate Silver is a shrewd customer. In a way, this election is on him and his ilk. The geeks have taken over baseball and football and every inch of our country's computer landscape. Why not politics?

In Defense of Nate Silver: Pundits Reveal Their Misunderstanding

Paul Raeburn | Posted 01.23.2014 | Media
Paul Raeburn

Nate Silver is not a pollster. He is not polling people, but using data to make predictions. Similarly, weather forecasts are generally correct -- but not always. But when there is an 86 percent change of rain, most of us grab an umbrella. And we should.

Who Is Winning the Race for the White House?

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 12.30.2012 | Politics
Leighton Vaughan Williams

The conventional wisdom is that the betting markets are pointing to the re-election of the president while the polls apparently have Mitt Romney as the narrow favorite. So what's the evidence?

Pollster's Mark Blumenthal Challenges Nate Silver's Method At FiveThirtyEight

Pollster.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

For better or worse, FiveThirtyEight's prominence makes these ratings central to our conversation about how to interpret and aggregate polls, and I ha...

Column on NCPP/AAPOR Effect & Answering Silver

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

My column for this week follows up on last week's topic from a different angle: Nate Silver's intriguing finding that as a group, pollsters that are m...

Rating Pollster Accuracy: How Useful?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I have been posting quite a bit lately on the subject of the transparency of Nate Silver's recently updated pollster ratings, so it was heartening to ...

Murray: Are Nate Silver's Pollster Ratings 'Done Right'?

Guest Pollster | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Guest Pollster

Patrick Murray is director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute The motto of Nate Silver's website, www.fiverthirtyeight.com, is "Politics Do...

Enten: Polling and the Maine Marriage Vote

Guest Pollster | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Guest Pollster

Harry Enten is a student at Dartmouth College The past two years have shown us that predicting voter support for same-sex marriage ballot measures is...

Nate Silver: Stop Panicking About Health Care Delay

FiveThirtyEight | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

To hear the defeatism and paranoia on some liberal blogs this afternoon, the "timeout" that Harry Reid and the Senate called on health care today -- t...

Bowers Vs. 538 Vs. Pollster

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Chris Bowers posted a two-part series this week that compares the final estimate accuracy of his simple poll averaging ("simple mean of all non-campai...

Nate Silver on "The Interview Show"

Mark Bazer | Posted 05.25.2011 | Chicago
Mark Bazer

Fivethirtyeight's and Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver recently appeared on a talk show I host at the Hideout called The Interview Show. Here is video of the interview.

Rove, Nate Silver Maps Predict Obama Blowout

The Huffington Post | Rachel Weiner | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

On his website, Republican strategist Karl Rove writes: The final Rove & Co. electoral map of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Oba...