In his inaugural post on Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website, Roger Pielke Jr. put forth a number of arguments suggesting that many changes to extreme weather are not occurring as our climate changes.
Nate Silver is not a pollster. He is not polling people, but using data to make predictions. Similarly, weather forecasts are generally correct -- but not always. But when there is an 86 percent change of rain, most of us grab an umbrella. And we should.