As bitcoin and the exchanges become more prevalent we'll see Wall Street and the central banks challenge the exchanges on intellectual property grounds.
LONDON -- Online prediction market Intrade has shut down all trading activity immediately, saying it is investigating recently-discovered events that ...
Intrade goes to great lengths to transparently define the contracts in their markets for hosts of potential pitfalls: candidate deaths, calling outcomes, etc. The investors in this market are fully aware of what they are trading and the risks associate with that.
-- Study: Gun sales in Virginia up 73 percent since 2006. Gun violence is down 24 percent over the same period. -- Intrade cuts off U.S. customers af...
Mr. Obama was a big winner on election night. But there were others. Statistical modelling was one such winner, and the other big winners were the prediction markets, which had it right all along.
The conventional wisdom is that the betting markets are pointing to the re-election of the president while the polls apparently have Mitt Romney as the narrow favorite. So what's the evidence?
I don't like uncertainty, and the current presidential polls are a hotbed of uncertainty. Fortunately there are veritable election oracles I can turn to instead: gamblers.
NEW YORK -- The consensus after Monday night's third and final presidential debate is that Barack Obama was the winner. But the president's victory be...
Joe Biden's performance at the debate on Thursday night was warmly received by Democrats -- and now the betting markets are rewarding his running mate...
The Republican convention is in two weeks. Both Romney and Ryan will give big, primetime speeches. I don't know what will be in those speeches. It barely matters though. The general contours of the narrative are already clear in advance.
Prediction markets are created for making predictions on a wide range of topics, from presidential elections to celebrity divorces. The current prices of the contracts on these markets can then be interpreted as the probability of an event taking place.
Can we all agree now that there's not so much wisdom in markets, or crowds? The Supreme Court's decision to uphold President Barack Obama's health ...
The world is a complicated and uncertain place. But that doesn't mean that everything in it should be treated like a March Madness pool. Some things are sacred.
"Intrade for political professionals is like the ultimate insider training. I feel like Martha Stewart. You take the industry you live and breathe and know and love and hate, and you make money off of it."
The world is different now from when Karl Rove and Matthew Dowd crafted a political strategy in a world with no center. Today, the center looms, and Republican chances are zero if they cannot win the suburbs.
There is a reason Karl Rove and the Bush family have fought this guy. Perry just either says what he wants with no regard for outcomes, or says what he wants with full regard for outcomes. I suspect it's the latter.
Jonathan Martin reports that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will take a pass on a July debate in Las Vegas, Nevada. That's bad news for Tuc...
Currently the most popular market on Intrade is the prospective fall of Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, garnering more than $100,000 in wagers. Markets regarding the fates of other Middle Eastern leaders have been nearly as hot.
A professional horseplayer once told me that compared to handicapping horse races, elections were a cakewalk. "Polls can be inaccurate," he said. "Gamblers are accurate or they lose." There's considerable evidence he was on the money.
For many in the market, just a few months ago it would have been hard to believe that Citigroup could be a safer bet than Goldman Sachs. But the b...
Sarah Palin has the capability to manipulate the political betting markets and thus, is barred from betting on her future. If you are a member of Palin's family, however, you can play.
I asked one of America's foremost horse racing handicappers to take time out from the grandstand and bet on political outcomes. What's his line on Geithner?
The odds-making firm Intrade has asked investors to bet on whether Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will leave his job before the end of this year....
When the Secretary of State page went up on November 5th and the bets started to be laid down on Intrade, there was a large number, relatively, of initial bets placed on Hillary for Secretary of State.
An internal investigation by the popular online market Intrade has revealed that a single investor's purchases prompted "unusual" price swings that si...
