Nate Silver's numbers tell us where the campaign is at a given moment. And good punditry can tell us how the campaign got there. Even though the statistics maven is riding high now, Nate Silver needs to realize he is only half of the equation.
New York Times blogger Nate Silver was the topic of a "Today" show segment on Friday, continuing his victory lap after accurately predicting the outco...
Again, not quite right. What Silver does is not an "art"; it's mathematical modeling. And Silver doesn't make judgments the way pundits do, trusting their gut, their instincts, or their experience. He assesses polls based on how they performed historically, among other things.
Despite all of the stories, the numbers told the right story all along. The numbers said that the election was not that close, and it was not.There is an important lesson here for business.
In polling, a year is an eternity. A little less than a year before the 2008 election, Hillary Clinton led now-President Barack Obama by 27 points, and Obama just barely tied with candidates Giuliani and McCain.