President Obama's job approval polling was down a bit last month, ending three months of positive news. He didn't slip back much, but the reversal does bring up a serious question: is Obama stuck in a "new normal" of job approval numbers in the low-40s range?
For the second month in a row, President Obama had an all-around positive month in the public polls. His job approval average was up, his job disapproval was down, and he has almost completely recovered from the dip his numbers took after the Obamacare website rollout fiasco.
As I accurately predicted last month, Obama was set to have a pretty good January -- and he did. To be fair, in absolute terms, this still is pretty dismal territory for Obama's polling. If you don't count the previous two months, Obama's January numbers would be the worst of his entire presidency.
Barack Obama had a pretty bad month inside the Beltway, with Republicans on the warpath over multiple scandals. Outside Washington, Obama didn't have too bad a month at all, as his job approval ratings barely budged.
In April, Obama's numbers returned to a normal level, after experiencing a very short post-election "honeymoon period" with the public which bounced his numbers up to a peak, and then bounced them right back down again.
President Obama lost almost all the ground he had gained late in the 2012 election season. He hit a new low in approval and a new high in disapproval for his second term, as the honeymoon bounce completely evaporated.
As expected, Obama's "second honeymoon" in the polls is starting to fade. The election is long over, the inauguration is fading from memory, and now the real legislative struggles of Obama's second term have begun.
Obama's "second honeymoon" period with the public may not last more than a few months, but for now seems to be holding steady. He's in a pretty good position right now in terms of "political capital," but this will likely change as legislative reality sets in.
Obama is currently enjoying not only a vacation with his family in Hawai'i, but also a "second honeymoon" with the public at large. If history is any guide, the fiscal cliff deal could create another wave of approval on top of the "second honeymoon."
November was certainly good to President Obama. He won the election at the beginning of the month, and he's been riding a "bounce" in the polls ever since. There are two notes of caution here, though, for Obama fans.
Again, not quite right. What Silver does is not an "art"; it's mathematical modeling. And Silver doesn't make judgments the way pundits do, trusting their gut, their instincts, or their experience. He assesses polls based on how they performed historically, among other things.