Can networking help us predict the contents of the envelopes? Let's base our algorithm on the assumption that it helps to have connections in Hollywood. More specifically, let's assume that better-connected actors will fare better in the final tally.

Nothing in Hollywood goes according to script, especially at the Oscars. This year the pundits polled by Gold Derby say Lincoln will win Best Picture, Director (Steven Spielberg), Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) and Supporting Actor (Tommy Lee Jones).

After months of speculation -- have we really been doing this since September? -- and endless rounds of red-carpet foreplay, it's almost time to hand out a new set of naked metal guys at the 85th annual Academy Awards. Will Ben Affleck's "Argo" manage to sneak a Best Picture envelope past customs? Can anyone challenge Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway? Will Jennifer Lawrence pull a Sharpie out of her decolletage, sign her statuette and hand it over to a fan, Terrell Owens-style? We'll find out for sure on Feb. 24, when ABC broadcasts the Oscars live from the Dolby Theatre, in Los Angeles.

Good thing Chris Rosen has a jolly sense of humor. Soon after Michael Hogan and I raise him up as a model of Oscar punditry for picking Argo early on to win Best Picture, we tear him down in this webcam chat.

While these predictions focus more on mainstream movies, it is not necessarily the ones dominating the main categories: Life of Pi leads in three, Zero Dark Thirty in three, Anna Karenina in two, and Lincoln in only one.

Branching out from politics and economics, I have been examining Oscar predictions over the last few weeks. While I approach the science of predictions the same way for both political elections and the Oscars, there are some key differences.

It's all over but the shouting. On Thursday, the 2013 Oscar nominations will be announced by Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone. Finally! Ahead, some fearless forecasting of what to expect from the 85th annual Academy Award nominations.